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Updated: 2023 Jun 27, 04:32 UT
Event Rank : 68
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2023 Aug 24 UT, the 45 km diameter asteroid (2246) Bowell will occult a 12.1 mag star in the constellation Aquarius for observers along a somewhat uncertain path across New Zealand, passing over New Plymouth and Hamilton.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 4.5 mag to 16.53 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 2.9 seconds.
This update is based on, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4-411-136375 by 2246 Bowell on 2023 Aug 24
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
178 20 35 -36 33 38 16 51 52.7 28 282 -22 177 53 13 -36 23 54 178 48 28 -36 43 19 177 6 33 -36 6 48 179 38 27 -37 0 9 1.34
177 54 43 -36 47 34 16 51 55.0 28 282 -22 177 27 31 -36 37 46 178 22 25 -36 57 20 176 41 9 -36 20 34 179 12 3 -37 14 16 1.34
177 29 5 -37 1 29 16 51 57.4 28 282 -23 177 2 3 -36 51 38 177 56 37 -37 11 18 176 15 58 -36 34 20 178 45 56 -37 28 22 1.34
177 3 42 -37 15 23 16 51 59.7 29 283 -23 176 36 50 -37 5 28 177 31 3 -37 25 16 175 51 0 -36 48 4 178 20 4 -37 42 26 1.34
176 38 32 -37 29 16 16 52 2.0 29 283 -23 176 11 49 -37 19 18 177 5 44 -37 39 13 175 26 15 -37 1 48 177 54 27 -37 56 29 1.34
176 13 36 -37 43 8 16 52 4.4 29 284 -24 175 47 1 -37 33 6 176 40 39 -37 53 8 175 1 41 -37 15 31 177 29 5 -38 10 31 1.34
175 48 52 -37 57 0 16 52 6.7 29 284 -24 175 22 26 -37 46 54 176 15 46 -38 7 3 174 37 19 -37 29 13 177 3 56 -38 24 32 1.34
175 24 20 -38 10 50 16 52 9.0 30 284 -24 174 58 1 -38 0 41 175 51 6 -38 20 57 174 13 8 -37 42 54 176 39 1 -38 38 32 1.34
174 59 59 -38 24 40 16 52 11.3 30 285 -24 174 33 48 -38 14 28 175 26 37 -38 34 50 173 49 7 -37 56 35 176 14 18 -38 52 32 1.35
174 35 50 -38 38 29 16 52 13.7 30 285 -25 174 9 46 -38 28 14 175 2 20 -38 48 43 173 25 16 -38 10 15 175 49 48 -39 6 30 1.35
174 11 51 -38 52 18 16 52 16.0 30 286 -25 173 45 54 -38 41 59 174 38 14 -39 2 35 173 1 35 -38 23 54 175 25 29 -39 20 29 1.35
173 48 2 -39 6 6 16 52 18.3 31 286 -25 173 22 11 -38 55 44 174 14 19 -39 16 26 172 38 3 -38 37 34 175 1 21 -39 34 26 1.35
173 24 23 -39 19 54 16 52 20.7 31 287 -26 172 58 38 -39 9 28 173 50 33 -39 30 18 172 14 40 -38 51 13 174 37 24 -39 48 23 1.35
173 0 53 -39 33 41 16 52 23.0 31 287 -26 172 35 14 -39 23 13 173 26 57 -39 44 8 171 51 26 -39 4 52 174 13 37 -40 2 21 1.35
172 37 32 -39 47 29 16 52 25.3 31 287 -26 172 11 58 -39 36 57 173 3 31 -39 57 59 171 28 19 -39 18 30 173 49 59 -40 16 17 1.35
172 14 19 -40 1 16 16 52 27.6 31 288 -26 171 48 51 -39 50 41 172 40 13 -40 11 49 171 5 21 -39 32 8 173 26 31 -40 30 13 1.35
171 51 15 -40 15 3 16 52 30.0 32 288 -27 171 25 52 -40 4 24 172 17 3 -40 25 40 170 42 30 -39 45 47 173 3 12 -40 44 9 1.35
171 28 19 -40 28 50 16 52 32.3 32 289 -27 171 3 1 -40 18 8 171 54 2 -40 39 30 170 19 46 -39 59 25 172 40 2 -40 58 5 1.35
171 5 30 -40 42 37 16 52 34.6 32 289 -27 170 40 16 -40 31 52 171 31 9 -40 53 20 169 57 10 -40 13 3 172 17 0 -41 12 1 1.35
170 42 49 -40 56 24 16 52 37.0 32 290 -27 170 17 39 -40 45 36 171 8 23 -41 7 10 169 34 40 -40 26 42 171 54 6 -41 25 57 1.35
170 20 15 -41 10 11 16 52 39.3 32 290 -28 169 55 10 -40 59 20 170 45 45 -41 21 1 169 12 16 -40 40 20 171 31 19 -41 39 54 1.35
169 57 47 -41 23 58 16 52 41.6 33 290 -28 169 32 46 -41 13 4 170 23 13 -41 34 52 168 49 58 -40 53 59 171 8 41 -41 53 50 1.35
169 35 26 -41 37 46 16 52 44.0 33 291 -28 169 10 28 -41 26 48 170 0 48 -41 48 42 168 27 47 -41 7 38 170 46 9 -42 7 47 1.35
169 13 10 -41 51 34 16 52 46.3 33 291 -28 168 48 16 -41 40 33 169 38 29 -42 2 33 168 5 41 -41 21 17 170 23 44 -42 21 44 1.35
168 51 1 -42 5 22 16 52 48.6 33 292 -28 168 26 9 -41 54 18 169 16 16 -42 16 25 167 43 40 -41 34 57 170 1 25 -42 35 41 1.35
168 28 57 -42 19 10 16 52 50.9 33 292 -29 168 4 8 -42 8 3 168 54 9 -42 30 17 167 21 44 -41 48 37 169 39 12 -42 49 38 1.35
168 6 58 -42 32 59 16 52 53.3 33 293 -29 167 42 13 -42 21 49 168 32 8 -42 44 9 166 59 53 -42 2 17 169 17 6 -43 3 37 1.35
167 45 4 -42 46 49 16 52 55.6 34 293 -29 167 20 22 -42 35 35 168 10 11 -42 58 2 166 38 7 -42 15 58 168 55 4 -43 17 35 1.35
167 23 16 -43 0 39 16 52 57.9 34 294 -29 166 58 35 -42 49 22 167 48 20 -43 11 55 166 16 25 -42 29 39 168 33 8 -43 31 34 1.35
167 1 32 -43 14 29 16 53 0.3 34 294 -29 166 36 54 -43 3 10 167 26 34 -43 25 49 165 54 47 -42 43 21 168 11 18 -43 45 34 1.35
166 39 52 -43 28 21 16 53 2.6 34 294 -30 166 15 16 -43 16 58 167 4 52 -43 39 43 165 33 14 -42 57 3 167 49 32 -43 59 34 1.35
166 18 17 -43 42 13 16 53 4.9 34 295 -30 165 53 43 -43 30 46 166 43 14 -43 53 39 165 11 44 -43 10 47 167 27 51 -44 13 35 1.35
165 56 45 -43 56 5 16 53 7.3 34 295 -30 165 32 13 -43 44 36 166 21 41 -44 7 35 164 50 17 -43 24 30 167 6 14 -44 27 37 1.35
165 35 17 -44 9 59 16 53 9.6 34 296 -30 165 10 47 -43 58 26 166 0 11 -44 21 31 164 28 54 -43 38 15 166 44 42 -44 41 40 1.35
165 13 53 -44 23 53 16 53 11.9 34 296 -30 164 49 24 -44 12 17 165 38 46 -44 35 29 164 7 34 -43 52 0 166 23 13 -44 55 44 1.35
164 52 32 -44 37 48 16 53 14.2 35 297 -31 164 28 5 -44 26 9 165 17 23 -44 49 28 163 46 17 -44 5 47 166 1 48 -45 9 48 1.35
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