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Updated: 2023 FEB 15, 20:51 UT
Event Rank : 99
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2023 Mar 22 UT, the 82.6 km diameter asteroid (576) Emanuela will occult a 12.1 mag star in the constellation Scorpius for observers along a path across south-western Western Australia from near Albany to near Geladton, passing a littel east of Perth.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.66 mag to 14.68 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 8.410 seconds.
This update is based on, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4 284-096596 by 576 Emanuela on 2023 Mar 22
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
110 40 33 -24 40 3 15 14 12.8 11 122 -58 109 2 54 -24 1 12 112 7 12 -25 11 11 108 6 52 -23 37 2 112 48 18 -25 24 53 1.06
111 33 50 -25 27 45 15 14 16.4 12 122 -58 110 4 30 -24 54 47 112 54 56 -25 54 53 109 14 37 -24 34 56 113 33 50 -26 6 59 1.07
112 22 10 -26 12 0 15 14 20.1 13 121 -58 110 58 49 -25 43 21 113 38 58 -26 36 1 110 13 4 -25 26 26 114 16 7 -26 46 50 1.08
113 6 38 -26 53 34 15 14 23.8 14 121 -58 111 47 52 -26 28 15 114 20 2 -27 15 4 111 5 7 -26 13 30 114 55 45 -27 24 49 1.08
113 48 1 -27 32 59 15 14 27.5 15 120 -57 112 32 52 -27 10 20 114 58 37 -27 52 24 111 52 26 -26 57 16 115 33 9 -28 1 14 1.09
114 26 50 -28 10 37 15 14 31.2 15 120 -57 113 14 38 -27 50 10 115 35 7 -28 28 15 112 36 2 -27 38 27 116 8 38 -28 36 18 1.09
115 3 30 -28 46 43 15 14 34.8 16 120 -57 113 53 45 -28 28 8 116 9 48 -29 2 50 113 16 38 -28 17 33 116 42 27 -29 10 12 1.09
115 38 19 -29 21 32 15 14 38.5 17 119 -57 114 30 38 -29 4 33 116 42 56 -29 36 18 113 54 46 -28 54 54 117 14 50 -29 43 5 1.09
116 11 32 -29 55 12 15 14 42.2 18 119 -57 115 5 37 -29 39 37 117 14 41 -30 8 48 114 30 48 -29 30 47 117 45 56 -30 15 2 1.09
116 43 20 -30 27 53 15 14 45.9 18 119 -57 115 38 57 -30 13 31 117 45 12 -30 40 25 115 5 2 -30 5 24 118 15 52 -30 46 10 1.10
117 13 53 -30 59 40 15 14 49.6 19 118 -56 116 10 50 -30 46 24 118 14 37 -31 11 15 115 37 42 -30 38 54 118 44 47 -31 16 34 1.10
117 43 19 -31 30 39 15 14 53.2 20 118 -56 116 41 26 -31 18 22 118 43 3 -31 41 22 116 8 59 -31 11 26 119 12 45 -31 46 17 1.10
118 11 44 -32 0 54 15 14 56.9 20 118 -56 117 10 54 -31 49 31 119 10 34 -32 10 50 116 39 3 -31 43 5 119 39 52 -32 15 23 1.10
118 39 14 -32 30 30 15 15 0.6 21 117 -56 117 39 19 -32 19 56 119 37 16 -32 39 43 117 8 0 -32 13 58 120 6 12 -32 43 56 1.10
119 5 53 -32 59 30 15 15 4.3 21 117 -55 118 6 48 -32 49 40 120 3 13 -33 8 3 117 35 57 -32 44 7 120 31 49 -33 11 57 1.10
119 31 47 -33 27 57 15 15 8.0 22 116 -55 118 33 26 -33 18 48 120 28 28 -33 35 53 118 3 1 -33 13 38 120 56 47 -33 39 30 1.10
119 56 58 -33 55 53 15 15 11.6 22 116 -55 118 59 18 -33 47 23 120 53 5 -34 3 15 118 29 14 -33 42 34 121 21 7 -34 6 35 1.10
120 21 30 -34 23 21 15 15 15.3 23 116 -54 119 24 26 -34 15 26 121 17 6 -34 30 11 118 54 43 -34 10 56 121 44 54 -34 33 16 1.10
120 45 26 -34 50 23 15 15 19.0 23 115 -54 119 48 54 -34 43 1 121 40 33 -34 56 42 119 19 29 -34 38 49 122 8 8 -34 59 33 1.10
121 8 49 -35 17 0 15 15 22.7 24 115 -54 120 12 46 -35 10 9 122 3 30 -35 22 51 119 43 37 -35 6 14 122 30 53 -35 25 29 1.10
121 31 40 -35 43 14 15 15 26.4 24 115 -54 120 36 3 -35 36 52 122 25 58 -35 48 39 120 7 10 -35 33 13 122 53 10 -35 51 3 1.10
121 54 1 -36 9 7 15 15 30.0 25 114 -53 120 58 48 -36 3 12 122 47 58 -36 14 6 120 30 8 -35 59 48 123 15 1 -36 16 19 1.10
122 15 56 -36 34 39 15 15 33.7 25 114 -53 121 21 4 -36 29 10 123 9 34 -36 39 15 120 52 36 -36 26 0 123 36 27 -36 41 16 1.10
122 37 24 -36 59 53 15 15 37.4 26 114 -53 121 42 52 -36 54 48 123 30 45 -37 4 6 121 14 35 -36 51 51 123 57 31 -37 5 56 1.10
122 58 28 -37 24 49 15 15 41.1 26 113 -52 122 4 13 -37 20 7 123 51 33 -37 28 40 121 36 6 -37 17 23 124 18 12 -37 30 20 1.10
123 19 9 -37 49 27 15 15 44.8 27 113 -52 122 25 10 -37 45 8 124 12 1 -37 52 58 121 57 12 -37 42 35 124 38 33 -37 54 28 1.10
123 39 29 -38 13 50 15 15 48.4 27 113 -52 122 45 44 -38 9 51 124 32 8 -38 17 1 122 17 54 -38 7 30 124 58 34 -38 18 21 1.10
123 59 28 -38 37 57 15 15 52.1 27 112 -51 123 5 56 -38 34 19 124 51 56 -38 40 50 122 38 13 -38 32 8 125 18 17 -38 42 1 1.10
Uncertainty in time = +/- 5 secs
Prediction of 2023 Feb 15.9
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