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Updated: 2023 FEB 15, 20:47 UT
Event Rank : 97
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2023 Mar 12 UT, the 72.3 km diameter asteroid (25) Phocaea will occult a 11.7 mag star in the constellation Monoceros for observers along a path across eastern Australia from Hobart across eastern Tasmania to Launceston, then across Victoria from Wilson's Prometory to Cobram (possibly including eastern Melbourne), and across western New South Wales and Queensland to Weipa. It also crosses Papua - New Guinea near the border with West Irian.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 1.70 mag to 13.13 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 7.090 seconds.
This update is based on, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4 425-032535 by 25 Phocaea on 2023 Mar 12
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
140 27 5 0 0 0 11 28 59.1 76 248 -40 140 47 7 140 7 4 141 3 2 139 51 12 -0.23
140 30 36 - 1 0 0 11 28 48.3 77 251 -40 140 50 39 140 10 35 141 6 34 139 54 43 -0.23
140 34 22 - 2 0 0 11 28 37.5 77 256 -40 140 54 25 140 14 21 141 10 21 139 58 28 -0.23
140 38 22 - 3 0 0 11 28 26.6 77 260 -40 140 58 26 140 18 20 141 14 23 140 2 26 -0.23
140 42 37 - 4 0 0 11 28 15.8 77 264 -40 141 2 43 140 22 33 141 18 41 140 6 39 -0.23
140 47 6 - 5 0 0 11 28 4.9 77 269 -40 141 7 14 140 27 0 141 23 13 140 11 5 -0.23
140 51 50 - 6 0 0 11 27 54.1 77 273 -40 141 11 59 140 31 42 141 28 1 140 15 44 -0.23
140 56 48 - 7 0 0 11 27 43.2 77 277 -39 141 17 0 140 36 38 141 33 4 140 20 38 -0.22
141 2 2 - 8 0 0 11 27 32.4 77 281 -39 141 22 17 140 41 48 141 38 22 140 25 46 -0.22
141 7 30 - 9 0 0 11 27 21.5 77 285 -39 141 27 48 140 47 13 141 43 57 140 31 8 -0.22
141 13 13 -10 0 0 11 27 10.7 76 289 -39 141 33 35 140 52 52 141 49 47 140 36 45 -0.22
141 19 12 -11 0 0 11 26 59.9 76 293 -39 141 39 38 140 58 47 141 55 53 140 42 36 -0.22
141 25 26 -12 0 0 11 26 49.1 75 296 -39 141 45 57 141 4 57 142 2 15 140 48 42 -0.22
141 31 56 -13 0 0 11 26 38.3 75 300 -38 141 52 32 141 11 22 142 8 55 140 55 3 -0.22
141 38 42 -14 0 0 11 26 27.6 74 303 -38 141 59 24 141 18 2 142 15 51 141 1 39 -0.22
141 45 45 -15 0 0 11 26 16.9 74 305 -38 142 6 32 141 24 59 142 23 4 141 8 31 -0.22
141 53 4 -16 0 0 11 26 6.2 73 308 -38 142 13 58 141 32 12 142 30 35 141 15 40 -0.22
142 0 41 -17 0 0 11 25 55.5 72 310 -38 142 21 42 141 39 42 142 38 24 141 23 4 -0.22
142 8 35 -18 0 0 11 25 44.9 72 312 -37 142 29 44 141 47 29 142 46 32 141 30 45 -0.22
142 16 48 -19 0 0 11 25 34.3 71 314 -37 142 38 4 141 55 33 142 54 58 141 38 43 -0.22
142 25 19 -20 0 0 11 25 23.8 70 316 -37 142 46 43 142 3 56 143 3 44 141 47 0 -0.22
142 34 9 -21 0 0 11 25 13.3 69 318 -37 142 55 42 142 12 37 143 12 51 141 55 34 -0.21
142 43 19 -22 0 0 11 25 2.9 68 319 -36 143 5 2 142 21 38 143 22 18 142 4 27 -0.21
142 52 49 -23 0 0 11 24 52.5 68 320 -36 143 14 42 142 30 58 143 32 6 142 13 39 -0.21
143 2 41 -24 0 0 11 24 42.2 67 322 -36 143 24 45 142 40 39 143 42 17 142 23 12 -0.21
143 12 54 -25 0 0 11 24 31.9 66 323 -35 143 35 9 142 50 42 143 52 51 142 33 5 -0.21
143 23 30 -26 0 0 11 24 21.7 65 324 -35 143 45 57 143 1 6 144 3 48 142 43 20 -0.21
143 34 30 -27 0 0 11 24 11.5 64 325 -35 143 57 10 143 11 53 144 15 10 142 53 58 -0.21
143 45 55 -28 0 0 11 24 1.5 63 326 -35 144 8 47 143 23 4 144 26 59 143 4 58 -0.21
143 57 45 -29 0 0 11 23 51.5 62 326 -34 144 20 51 143 34 40 144 39 14 143 16 23 -0.21
144 10 1 -30 0 0 11 23 41.5 61 327 -34 144 33 23 143 46 42 144 51 57 143 28 14 -0.21
144 22 46 -31 0 0 11 23 31.7 61 328 -34 144 46 23 143 59 12 145 5 10 143 40 31 -0.21
144 36 0 -32 0 0 11 23 21.9 60 328 -33 144 59 53 144 12 9 145 18 53 143 53 16 -0.21
144 49 44 -33 0 0 11 23 12.2 59 329 -33 145 13 55 144 25 37 145 33 9 144 6 29 -0.21
145 4 1 -34 0 0 11 23 2.6 58 329 -32 145 28 30 144 39 35 145 47 58 144 20 14 -0.21
145 18 52 -35 0 0 11 22 53.1 57 330 -32 145 43 40 144 54 7 146 3 24 144 34 30 -0.21
145 34 19 -36 0 0 11 22 43.7 56 330 -32 145 59 27 145 9 13 146 19 27 144 49 21 -0.21
145 50 23 -37 0 0 11 22 34.4 55 331 -31 146 15 53 145 24 56 146 36 9 145 4 47 -0.21
146 7 7 -38 0 0 11 22 25.1 54 331 -31 146 32 59 145 41 18 146 53 34 145 20 51 -0.21
146 24 33 -39 0 0 11 22 16.0 53 331 -31 146 50 49 145 58 21 147 11 43 145 37 35 -0.21
146 42 44 -40 0 0 11 22 7.0 52 331 -30 147 9 25 146 16 7 147 30 38 145 55 2 -0.21
147 1 42 -41 0 0 11 21 58.1 51 332 -30 147 28 50 146 34 39 147 50 24 146 13 13 -0.21
147 21 31 -42 0 0 11 21 49.3 50 332 -29 147 49 6 146 54 0 148 11 4 146 32 12 -0.21
147 42 14 -43 0 0 11 21 40.5 49 332 -29 148 10 19 147 14 13 148 32 39 146 52 2 -0.21
148 3 54 -44 0 0 11 21 32.0 48 332 -29 148 32 30 147 35 22 148 55 16 147 12 47 -0.21
148 26 35 -45 0 0 11 21 23.5 47 332 -28 148 55 44 147 57 30 149 18 57 147 34 29 -0.21
Uncertainty in time = +/- 3 secs
Prediction of 2023 Feb 15.9
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