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Updated: 2022 Dec 13, 00:27 UT
Event Rank : 97
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2023 Feb 14 UT, the 101 km diameter asteroid (286) Iclea will occult a 12.4 mag star in the constellation Orion for observers along a path across the South Island of New Zealand, passing near Christchurch and Dunedin during early evening twilight.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.2 mag to 14.45 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 10.6 seconds.
This update is based on, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4 491-022616 by 286 Iclea on 2023 Feb 14
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
171 56 34 -46 37 9 8 11 32.8 34 19 -5 171 12 19 -46 54 36 172 40 7 -46 19 56 170 38 13 -47 8 0 173 12 44 -46 7 0 0.51
171 55 10 -46 5 41 8 11 36.5 34 19 -5 171 11 27 -46 22 54 172 38 12 -45 48 40 170 37 46 -46 36 7 173 10 27 -45 35 54 0.51
171 53 35 -45 34 36 8 11 40.3 35 19 -5 171 10 22 -45 51 36 172 36 8 -45 17 48 170 37 6 -46 4 39 173 8 1 -45 5 10 0.51
171 51 50 -45 3 54 8 11 44.1 35 19 -5 171 9 6 -45 20 42 172 33 55 -44 47 17 170 36 13 -45 33 35 173 5 28 -44 34 49 0.51
171 49 55 -44 33 33 8 11 47.9 36 19 -5 171 7 39 -44 50 10 172 31 33 -44 17 8 170 35 8 -45 2 54 173 2 47 -44 4 48 0.52
171 47 50 -44 3 34 8 11 51.6 36 19 -6 171 6 2 -44 19 59 172 29 4 -43 47 20 170 33 52 -44 32 35 172 59 59 -43 35 8 0.52
171 45 38 -43 33 54 8 11 55.4 37 19 -6 171 4 15 -43 50 9 172 26 27 -43 17 51 170 32 25 -44 2 36 172 57 4 -43 5 46 0.52
171 43 17 -43 4 34 8 11 59.2 37 20 -6 171 2 19 -43 20 38 172 23 42 -42 48 41 170 30 49 -43 32 57 172 54 3 -42 36 43 0.52
171 40 49 -42 35 32 8 12 3.0 37 20 -6 171 0 14 -42 51 27 172 20 51 -42 19 49 170 29 3 -43 3 38 172 50 55 -42 7 58 0.52
171 38 13 -42 6 49 8 12 6.7 38 20 -6 170 58 1 -42 22 33 172 17 55 -41 51 13 170 27 8 -42 34 37 172 47 42 -41 39 30 0.52
171 35 31 -41 38 22 8 12 10.5 38 20 -6 170 55 40 -41 53 57 172 14 51 -41 22 56 170 25 4 -42 5 54 172 44 24 -41 11 19 0.52
171 32 42 -41 10 11 8 12 14.3 39 20 -7 170 53 12 -41 25 38 172 11 42 -40 54 54 170 22 53 -41 37 28 172 41 0 -40 43 24 0.52
171 29 47 -40 42 17 8 12 18.0 39 20 -7 170 50 37 -40 57 36 172 8 28 -40 27 8 170 20 34 -41 9 19 172 37 32 -40 15 44 0.52
171 26 46 -40 14 38 8 12 21.8 40 21 -7 170 47 56 -40 29 48 172 5 8 -39 59 37 170 18 8 -40 41 25 172 33 58 -39 48 19 0.52
171 23 40 -39 47 15 8 12 25.6 40 21 -7 170 45 9 -40 2 17 172 1 44 -39 32 21 170 15 35 -40 13 47 172 30 21 -39 21 9 0.52
171 20 28 -39 20 5 8 12 29.4 40 21 -7 170 42 15 -39 35 0 171 58 14 -39 5 19 170 12 55 -39 46 24 172 26 39 -38 54 12 0.52
171 17 11 -38 53 10 8 12 33.1 41 21 -7 170 39 15 -39 7 57 171 54 41 -38 38 31 170 10 10 -39 19 16 172 22 52 -38 27 29 0.52
171 13 49 -38 26 28 8 12 36.9 41 21 -8 170 36 10 -38 41 8 171 51 2 -38 11 56 170 7 18 -38 52 21 172 19 2 -38 0 59 0.51
171 10 22 -37 59 59 8 12 40.7 42 21 -8 170 33 0 -38 14 32 171 47 20 -37 45 34 170 4 20 -38 25 40 172 15 8 -37 34 42 0.51
171 6 51 -37 33 42 8 12 44.5 42 22 -8 170 29 44 -37 48 9 171 43 34 -37 19 24 170 1 17 -37 59 12 172 11 11 -37 8 37 0.51
171 3 15 -37 7 38 8 12 48.2 42 22 -8 170 26 24 -37 21 58 171 39 43 -36 53 26 169 58 9 -37 32 56 172 7 10 -36 42 44 0.51
170 59 36 -36 41 46 8 12 52.0 43 22 -8 170 22 59 -36 56 0 171 35 49 -36 27 40 169 54 56 -37 6 53 172 3 5 -36 17 2 0.51
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