|
|
Updated: 2009 JAN 08, 01:18 UT
Event Rank : 32
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2009 Jan 18 UT, the 25 km diameter asteroid (1098) Hakone will occult a 11.9 mag star in the constellation Perseus for observers along a path across eastern Northern Territory, western Queensland and New South Wales.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.4 mag to 14.2 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 3.4 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, TMO astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
135 38 38 -11 4 54 13 11 28 34 334 -47 135 46 31 -11 6 52 135 30 47 -11 2 56 136 19 17 -11 15 16 134 58 22 -10 55 5
136 2 14 -13 22 3 13 11 48 32 334 -46 136 10 17 -13 24 13 135 54 12 -13 19 55 136 43 47 -13 33 27 135 21 6 -13 11 18
136 30 48 -15 48 3 13 12 9 29 335 -45 136 39 5 -15 50 28 136 22 33 -15 45 40 137 13 33 -16 0 45 135 48 33 -15 36 5
137 5 54 -18 25 20 13 12 30 27 335 -43 137 14 29 -18 28 4 136 57 21 -18 22 37 137 50 16 -18 39 46 136 22 10 -18 11 45
137 50 1 -21 17 38 13 12 51 24 335 -41 137 59 1 -21 20 50 137 41 2 -21 14 28 138 36 40 -21 34 32 137 4 11 -21 1 47
138 47 31 -24 31 22 13 13 12 20 334 -39 138 57 10 -24 35 17 138 37 54 -24 27 31 139 37 39 -24 52 6 137 58 33 -24 12 6
140 7 31 -28 19 23 13 13 32 17 334 -36 140 18 19 -28 24 34 139 56 48 -28 14 16 141 3 51 -28 47 5 139 13 9 -27 54 2
142 16 14 -33 16 51 13 13 53 11 333 -32 142 29 51 -33 25 20 142 2 49 -33 8 37 143 28 42 -34 3 18 141 9 10 -32 36 45
Uncertainty in time = +/- 7 secs
[Prediction of 2009 Jan 8.0]
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
[Top of Page][Return to Home Page]