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Updated: 2021 APR 16, 05:51 UT
Event Rank : 66
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2021 May 06 UT, the 24.9113255167175 km diameter asteroid (2428) Kamenyar will occult a 7.8 mag star in the constellation Sagittarius for observers along a narrow path across Australia from Eucla across western South Australia and central Northern Territory to Mataranka.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 9.02 mag to 16.82 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 5.3 seconds.
This update is based on, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of HIP 91305 by 2428 Kamenyar on 2021 May 6
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
138 36 44 0 0 0 18 35 56.1 55 184 -30 138 29 28 138 44 0 138 16 25 138 57 2 -0.14
138 20 24 - 1 0 0 18 36 15.2 56 184 -31 138 13 8 138 27 40 138 0 4 138 40 43 -0.13
138 3 54 - 2 0 0 18 36 34.6 57 184 -31 137 56 38 138 11 11 137 43 34 138 24 14 -0.13
137 47 15 - 3 0 0 18 36 54.2 58 183 -32 137 39 58 137 54 32 137 26 52 138 7 36 -0.13
137 30 25 - 4 0 0 18 37 14.1 59 183 -32 137 23 7 137 37 42 137 10 0 137 50 48 -0.13
137 13 24 - 5 0 0 18 37 34.1 60 183 -33 137 6 5 137 20 42 136 52 57 137 33 49 -0.13
136 56 12 - 6 0 0 18 37 54.4 61 183 -33 136 48 52 137 3 31 136 35 42 137 16 40 -0.13
136 38 48 - 7 0 0 18 38 14.9 62 182 -33 136 31 27 136 46 8 136 18 16 136 59 19 -0.13
136 21 12 - 8 0 0 18 38 35.6 63 182 -34 136 13 50 136 28 34 136 0 36 136 41 47 -0.12
136 3 24 - 9 0 0 18 38 56.4 64 182 -34 135 56 1 136 10 47 135 42 44 136 24 3 -0.12
135 45 23 -10 0 0 18 39 17.5 65 181 -35 135 37 58 135 52 48 135 24 39 136 6 6 -0.12
135 27 8 -11 0 0 18 39 38.7 66 181 -35 135 19 42 135 34 35 135 6 20 135 47 56 -0.12
135 8 40 -12 0 0 18 40 0.2 67 181 -36 135 1 12 135 16 8 134 47 46 135 29 33 -0.12
134 49 57 -13 0 0 18 40 21.8 68 180 -36 134 42 27 134 57 27 134 28 57 135 10 55 -0.12
134 30 59 -14 0 0 18 40 43.5 69 180 -37 134 23 26 134 38 31 134 9 53 134 52 3 -0.12
134 11 45 -15 0 0 18 41 5.4 70 179 -37 134 4 10 134 19 20 133 50 33 134 32 56 -0.11
133 52 15 -16 0 0 18 41 27.5 71 178 -37 133 44 38 133 59 52 133 30 56 134 13 33 -0.11
133 32 28 -17 0 0 18 41 49.7 72 178 -38 133 24 48 133 40 8 133 11 2 133 53 53 -0.11
133 12 24 -18 0 0 18 42 12.1 73 177 -38 133 4 41 133 20 6 132 50 49 133 33 57 -0.11
132 52 1 -19 0 0 18 42 34.6 74 176 -38 132 44 15 132 59 46 132 30 18 133 13 42 -0.11
132 31 19 -20 0 0 18 42 57.2 75 175 -39 132 23 30 132 39 7 132 9 27 132 53 9 -0.11
132 10 16 -21 0 0 18 43 19.9 76 174 -39 132 2 24 132 18 9 131 48 15 132 32 16 -0.10
131 48 54 -22 0 0 18 43 42.8 77 172 -39 131 40 57 131 56 49 131 26 42 132 11 4 -0.10
131 27 9 -23 0 0 18 44 5.7 78 171 -40 131 19 9 131 35 8 131 4 46 131 49 29 -0.10
131 5 1 -24 0 0 18 44 28.8 79 169 -40 130 56 57 131 13 5 130 42 27 131 27 33 -0.10
130 42 30 -25 0 0 18 44 51.9 80 166 -40 130 34 21 130 50 38 130 19 44 131 5 14 -0.10
130 19 33 -26 0 0 18 45 15.2 80 163 -41 130 11 20 130 27 46 129 56 35 130 42 30 -0.10
129 56 11 -27 0 0 18 45 38.5 81 160 -41 129 47 53 130 4 28 129 32 59 130 19 20 -0.10
129 32 20 -28 0 0 18 46 1.9 82 156 -41 129 23 58 129 40 43 129 8 54 129 55 44 -0.10
129 8 1 -29 0 0 18 46 25.4 83 151 -41 128 59 33 129 16 29 128 44 20 129 31 40 -0.10
128 43 12 -30 0 0 18 46 49.0 83 144 -41 128 34 38 128 51 45 128 19 15 129 7 6 -0.10
128 17 50 -31 0 0 18 47 12.6 84 136 -42 128 9 11 128 26 30 127 53 37 128 42 1 -0.10
127 51 55 -32 0 0 18 47 36.3 84 126 -42 127 43 10 128 0 41 127 27 25 128 16 23 -0.10
127 25 25 -33 0 0 18 48 0.0 84 115 -42 127 16 32 127 34 16 127 0 35 127 50 11 -0.10
126 58 16 -34 0 0 18 48 23.7 84 103 -42 126 49 17 127 7 15 126 33 8 127 23 22 -0.10
126 30 28 -35 0 0 18 48 47.5 84 92 -42 126 21 22 126 39 34 126 4 59 126 55 54 -0.09
126 1 58 -36 0 0 18 49 11.4 84 81 -42 125 52 44 126 11 12 125 36 8 126 27 45 -0.09
125 32 44 -37 0 0 18 49 35.2 83 73 -43 125 23 21 125 42 5 125 6 30 125 58 53 -0.09
125 2 42 -38 0 0 18 49 59.1 83 65 -43 124 53 11 125 12 12 124 36 4 125 29 15 -0.09
Uncertainty in time = +/- 5 secs
Prediction of 2021 Apr 16.0
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