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Updated: 2020 JAN 28, 17:40 UT
Event Rank : 99
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2020 Mar 31 UT, the 83 km diameter asteroid (779) Nina will occult a 11.8 mag star in the constellation Scorpius for observers along a path across south-eastern Australia from eastern Victoria across western New South Wales and The Northern Territory to northern Western Australia at low elevation.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 1.16 mag to 12.55 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 13.3 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4 267-098960 by 779 Nina on 2020 Mar 31
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
128 42 2 -15 57 58 13 9 26.3 3 127 -54 131 26 10 -17 37 24 ... .. .. .. .. .. 132 25 58 -18 9 52 ... .. .. .. .. .. ....
130 42 58 -17 43 39 13 9 31.8 6 127 -55 132 42 21 -18 48 28 127 29 37 -15 41 38 133 32 45 -19 13 37 ... .. .. .. .. .. 0.89
132 3 26 -18 58 10 13 9 37.3 8 126 -56 133 44 16 -19 48 30 129 55 36 -17 46 47 134 29 9 -20 9 18 128 26 55 -16 51 55 0.99
133 7 33 -20 0 3 13 9 42.8 9 126 -57 134 37 31 -20 41 49 131 21 51 -19 5 55 135 18 41 -20 59 40 130 18 43 -18 30 50 1.03
134 2 8 -20 54 32 13 9 48.2 10 126 -57 135 24 47 -21 30 27 132 28 45 -20 10 6 136 3 15 -21 46 8 131 35 58 -19 43 6 1.05
134 50 18 -21 44 1 13 9 53.7 11 125 -57 136 7 35 -22 15 38 133 25 0 -21 6 1 136 43 59 -22 29 38 132 38 10 -20 43 43 1.06
135 33 45 -22 29 49 13 9 59.2 13 125 -58 136 46 56 -22 58 5 134 14 17 -21 56 30 137 21 41 -23 10 44 133 31 24 -21 37 22 1.06
136 13 34 -23 12 47 13 10 4.7 13 125 -58 137 23 29 -23 38 21 134 58 31 -22 43 3 137 56 53 -23 49 52 134 18 30 -22 26 13 1.07
136 50 28 -23 53 26 13 10 10.2 14 124 -58 137 57 42 -24 16 46 135 38 54 -23 26 36 138 29 59 -24 27 20 135 1 5 -23 11 33 1.07
137 24 56 -24 32 12 13 10 15.6 15 124 -58 138 29 56 -24 53 38 136 16 13 -24 7 44 139 1 17 -25 3 24 135 40 8 -23 54 7 1.07
137 57 23 -25 9 21 13 10 21.1 16 124 -58 139 0 30 -25 29 10 136 51 1 -24 46 53 139 31 2 -25 38 13 136 16 21 -24 34 27 1.08
138 28 5 -25 45 8 13 10 26.6 17 123 -58 139 29 34 -26 3 31 137 23 42 -25 24 22 139 59 24 -26 11 56 136 50 13 -25 12 56 1.08
138 57 16 -26 19 42 13 10 32.1 17 123 -58 139 57 21 -26 36 51 137 54 35 -26 0 25 140 26 34 -26 44 42 137 22 6 -25 49 51 1.08
139 25 7 -26 53 13 13 10 37.6 18 123 -58 140 23 58 -27 9 14 138 23 55 -26 35 15 140 52 38 -27 16 36 137 52 17 -26 25 25 1.08
139 51 47 -27 25 48 13 10 43.0 19 123 -58 140 49 33 -27 40 48 138 51 52 -27 8 59 141 17 44 -27 47 43 138 20 58 -26 59 49 1.08
140 17 24 -27 57 31 13 10 48.5 19 122 -58 141 14 12 -28 11 37 139 18 36 -27 41 45 141 41 57 -28 18 7 138 48 21 -27 33 10 1.08
140 42 2 -28 28 28 13 10 54.0 20 122 -58 141 37 59 -28 41 45 139 44 15 -28 13 39 142 5 22 -28 47 52 139 14 34 -28 5 35 1.08
141 5 49 -28 58 44 13 10 59.5 20 122 -58 142 1 0 -29 11 16 140 8 55 -28 44 46 142 28 2 -29 17 2 139 39 44 -28 37 11 1.08
141 28 48 -29 28 22 13 11 5.0 21 121 -58 142 23 17 -29 40 11 140 32 42 -29 15 11 142 50 1 -29 45 38 140 3 58 -29 8 1 1.08
141 51 3 -29 57 24 13 11 10.4 21 121 -58 142 44 56 -30 8 35 140 55 40 -29 44 56 143 11 22 -30 13 44 140 27 20 -29 38 10 1.08
142 12 38 -30 25 54 13 11 15.9 22 121 -57 143 5 57 -30 36 29 141 17 54 -30 14 6 143 32 8 -30 41 22 140 49 55 -30 7 42 1.08
142 33 36 -30 53 54 13 11 21.4 23 120 -57 143 26 24 -31 3 56 141 39 27 -30 42 43 143 52 22 -31 8 33 141 11 47 -30 36 39 1.08
142 54 0 -31 21 27 13 11 26.9 23 120 -57 143 46 20 -31 30 57 142 0 22 -31 10 50 144 12 5 -31 35 19 141 33 0 -31 5 5 1.08
143 13 51 -31 48 33 13 11 32.4 24 120 -57 144 5 46 -31 57 34 142 20 41 -31 38 28 144 31 19 -32 1 42 141 53 35 -31 33 0 1.08
143 33 12 -32 15 15 13 11 37.8 24 120 -57 144 24 44 -32 23 48 142 40 28 -32 5 40 144 50 7 -32 27 44 142 13 36 -32 0 28 1.08
143 52 4 -32 41 34 13 11 43.3 24 119 -57 144 43 16 -32 49 41 142 59 44 -32 32 28 145 8 30 -32 53 25 142 33 5 -32 27 31 1.08
144 10 31 -33 7 31 13 11 48.8 25 119 -56 145 1 24 -33 15 15 143 18 31 -32 58 52 145 26 29 -33 18 46 142 52 4 -32 54 10 1.08
144 28 32 -33 33 9 13 11 54.3 25 119 -56 145 19 8 -33 40 29 143 36 52 -33 24 55 145 44 6 -33 43 50 143 10 35 -33 20 26 1.08
144 46 10 -33 58 27 13 11 59.8 26 118 -56 145 36 31 -34 5 25 143 54 47 -33 50 37 146 1 21 -34 8 36 143 28 40 -33 46 21 1.08
145 3 25 -34 23 28 13 12 5.2 26 118 -56 145 53 33 -34 30 5 144 12 19 -34 16 0 146 18 17 -34 33 5 143 46 20 -34 11 56 1.08
145 20 20 -34 48 11 13 12 10.7 27 118 -56 146 10 15 -34 54 28 144 29 27 -34 41 5 146 34 53 -34 57 19 144 3 37 -34 37 12 1.08
145 36 54 -35 12 39 13 12 16.2 27 118 -55 146 26 38 -35 18 36 144 46 15 -35 5 53 146 51 11 -35 21 18 144 20 31 -35 2 11 1.08
145 53 10 -35 36 50 13 12 21.7 27 117 -55 146 42 43 -35 42 30 145 2 42 -35 30 24 147 7 12 -35 45 3 144 37 5 -35 26 52 1.08
146 9 7 -36 0 48 13 12 27.2 28 117 -55 146 58 32 -36 6 10 145 18 50 -35 54 40 147 22 57 -36 8 35 144 53 19 -35 51 18 1.07
146 24 48 -36 24 31 13 12 32.6 28 117 -55 147 14 4 -36 29 36 145 34 39 -36 18 41 147 38 26 -36 31 53 145 9 13 -36 15 28 1.07
146 40 12 -36 48 1 13 12 38.1 29 116 -54 147 29 21 -36 52 50 145 50 11 -36 42 28 147 53 40 -36 55 0 145 24 50 -36 39 24 1.07
146 55 20 -37 11 18 13 12 43.6 29 116 -54 147 44 24 -37 15 52 146 5 27 -37 6 2 148 8 39 -37 17 54 145 40 9 -37 3 6 1.07
147 10 13 -37 34 23 13 12 49.1 29 116 -54 147 59 12 -37 38 43 146 20 26 -37 29 23 148 23 25 -37 40 37 145 55 12 -37 26 36 1.07
147 24 52 -37 57 17 13 12 54.6 30 115 -54 148 13 46 -38 1 22 146 35 10 -37 52 31 148 37 58 -38 3 10 146 9 59 -37 49 52 1.07
147 39 17 -38 19 59 13 13 0.0 30 115 -54 148 28 8 -38 23 51 146 49 40 -38 15 28 148 52 18 -38 25 32 146 24 31 -38 12 57 1.07
147 53 29 -38 42 31 13 13 5.5 30 115 -53 148 42 17 -38 46 9 147 3 55 -38 38 14 149 6 26 -38 47 44 146 38 49 -38 35 50 1.07
148 7 28 -39 4 53 13 13 11.0 31 115 -53 148 56 14 -39 8 18 147 17 57 -39 0 49 149 20 22 -39 9 46 146 52 52 -38 58 32 1.07
148 21 15 -39 27 4 13 13 16.5 31 114 -53 149 10 0 -39 30 17 147 31 46 -39 23 14 149 34 7 -39 31 40 147 6 43 -39 21 4 1.07
148 34 51 -39 49 7 13 13 22.0 31 114 -52 149 23 34 -39 52 7 147 45 23 -39 45 29 149 47 42 -39 53 24 147 20 21 -39 43 25 1.07
148 48 15 -40 11 0 13 13 27.4 32 114 -52 149 36 58 -40 13 49 147 58 48 -40 7 34 150 1 6 -40 15 0 147 33 46 -40 5 37 1.07
149 1 28 -40 32 44 13 13 32.9 32 113 -52 149 50 12 -40 35 22 148 12 1 -40 29 31 150 14 20 -40 36 28 147 46 59 -40 27 39 1.07
149 14 30 -40 54 20 13 13 38.4 32 113 -52 150 3 15 -40 56 47 148 25 3 -40 51 18 150 27 24 -40 57 48 148 0 1 -40 49 33 1.07
149 27 23 -41 15 48 13 13 43.9 33 113 -51 150 16 9 -41 18 4 148 37 54 -41 12 57 150 40 19 -41 19 0 148 12 52 -41 11 18 1.07
149 40 6 -41 37 9 13 13 49.4 33 112 -51 150 28 54 -41 39 14 148 50 36 -41 34 28 150 53 5 -41 40 4 148 25 33 -41 32 54 1.07
149 52 39 -41 58 21 13 13 54.8 33 112 -51 150 41 30 -42 0 17 149 3 7 -41 55 51 151 5 42 -42 1 2 148 38 3 -41 54 23 1.06
150 5 3 -42 19 27 13 14 0.3 33 112 -51 150 53 58 -42 21 12 149 15 28 -42 17 7 151 18 11 -42 21 53 148 50 23 -42 15 44 1.06
150 17 18 -42 40 25 13 14 5.8 34 111 -50 151 6 17 -42 42 1 149 27 40 -42 38 15 151 30 32 -42 42 37 149 2 33 -42 36 57 1.06
150 29 25 -43 1 17 13 14 11.3 34 111 -50 151 18 27 -43 2 44 149 39 43 -42 59 17 151 42 45 -43 3 15 149 14 35 -42 58 4 1.06
150 41 24 -43 22 2 13 14 16.8 34 111 -50 151 30 30 -43 23 20 149 51 37 -43 20 11 151 54 51 -43 23 46 149 26 27 -43 19 3 1.06
150 53 14 -43 42 41 13 14 22.2 35 110 -50 151 42 26 -43 43 50 150 3 22 -43 40 59 152 6 49 -43 44 12 149 38 10 -43 39 56 1.06
151 4 57 -44 3 14 13 14 27.7 35 110 -49 151 54 14 -44 4 14 150 15 0 -44 1 41 152 18 40 -44 4 32 149 49 45 -44 0 42 1.06
151 16 32 -44 23 40 13 14 33.2 35 110 -49 152 5 55 -44 24 32 150 26 29 -44 22 17 152 30 24 -44 24 46 150 1 11 -44 21 22 1.06
151 27 59 -44 44 2 13 14 38.7 35 109 -49 152 17 29 -44 44 45 150 37 51 -44 42 47 152 42 1 -44 44 55 150 12 30 -44 41 57 1.06
151 39 20 -45 4 17 13 14 44.2 36 109 -48 152 28 57 -45 4 52 150 49 5 -45 3 11 152 53 32 -45 4 58 150 23 40 -45 2 25 1.06
151 50 34 -45 24 28 13 14 49.6 36 109 -48 152 40 18 -45 24 55 151 0 11 -45 23 29 153 4 57 -45 24 57 150 34 43 -45 22 48 1.06
152 1 41 -45 44 33 13 14 55.1 36 108 -48 152 51 32 -45 44 52 151 11 10 -45 43 42 153 16 15 -45 44 50 150 45 39 -45 43 5 1.06
152 23 35 -46 24 28 13 15 6.1 37 108 -47 153 13 43 -46 24 33 151 32 48 -46 23 53 153 38 35 -46 24 23 151 7 9 -46 23 24 1.06
152 34 23 -46 44 19 13 15 11.6 37 107 -47 153 24 40 -46 44 16 151 43 27 -46 43 52 153 49 36 -46 44 3 151 17 43 -46 43 26 1.06
Uncertainty in time = +/- 4 secs
Prediction of 2020 Jan 28.0
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