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Updated: 2019 Jul 21, 05:01 UT
Event Rank : 99
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2019 Aug 22 UT, the 65 km diameter asteroid (287) Nephthys will occult a 11.3 mag star in the constellation Aquarius for observers along a path across Northern Territory and West Australia, running from Groote Eylandt to Point D'Entrecasteaux.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by only 0.70 mag to 11.21 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 6.4 seconds. This event may be difficult to observe visually.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4-396-134927 by 287 Nephthys on 2019 Aug 22
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
141 20 41 -10 10 52 19 37 28 30 263 -17 141 48 50 -10 19 18 140 52 59 -10 2 20 141 58 47 -10 22 15 140 43 23 - 9 59 19 0.82
140 32 31 -10 45 40 19 37 35 31 264 -17 141 0 12 -10 54 14 140 5 15 -10 37 1 141 10 0 -10 57 13 139 55 47 -10 33 58 0.83
139 45 44 -11 20 11 19 37 42 32 264 -18 140 13 1 -11 28 52 139 18 51 -11 11 26 140 22 40 -11 31 53 139 9 31 -11 8 20 0.83
139 0 14 -11 54 27 19 37 49 33 265 -19 139 27 9 -12 3 14 138 33 41 -11 45 35 139 36 40 -12 6 17 138 24 29 -11 42 28 0.83
138 15 54 -12 28 28 19 37 56 33 265 -20 138 42 29 -12 37 21 137 49 40 -12 19 31 138 51 53 -12 40 27 137 40 34 -12 16 21 0.83
137 32 39 -13 2 17 19 38 3 34 266 -21 137 58 57 -13 11 16 137 6 43 -12 53 14 138 8 15 -13 14 23 136 57 43 -12 50 2 0.83
136 50 26 -13 35 53 19 38 10 35 266 -21 137 16 27 -13 44 58 136 24 45 -13 26 45 137 25 38 -13 48 7 136 15 50 -13 23 32 0.83
136 9 8 -14 9 19 19 38 17 36 267 -22 136 34 54 -14 18 28 135 43 41 -14 0 5 136 44 1 -14 21 40 135 34 51 -13 56 51 0.83
135 28 43 -14 42 34 19 38 24 36 267 -23 135 54 16 -14 51 49 135 3 29 -14 33 16 136 3 17 -14 55 2 134 54 43 -14 29 59 0.83
134 49 7 -15 15 40 19 38 31 37 268 -23 135 14 27 -15 25 0 134 24 5 -15 6 17 135 23 24 -15 28 15 134 15 23 -15 2 59 0.83
134 10 17 -15 48 38 19 38 38 37 268 -24 134 35 26 -15 58 2 133 45 26 -15 39 10 134 44 19 -16 1 19 133 36 48 -15 35 51 0.83
133 32 10 -16 21 28 19 38 45 38 269 -25 133 57 9 -16 30 57 133 7 29 -16 11 56 134 5 58 -16 34 15 132 58 54 -16 8 34 0.83
132 54 44 -16 54 10 19 38 52 39 269 -25 133 19 33 -17 3 43 132 30 11 -16 44 34 133 28 19 -17 7 4 132 21 40 -16 41 11 0.83
132 17 56 -17 26 46 19 38 59 39 270 -26 132 42 37 -17 36 24 131 53 31 -17 17 5 132 51 20 -17 39 45 131 45 2 -17 13 41 0.83
131 41 43 -17 59 16 19 39 6 40 271 -26 132 6 17 -18 8 58 131 17 27 -17 49 31 132 14 57 -18 12 21 131 9 0 -17 46 5 0.83
131 6 5 -18 31 40 19 39 13 40 271 -27 131 30 32 -18 41 26 130 41 55 -18 21 51 131 39 9 -18 44 51 130 33 31 -18 18 24 0.83
130 30 59 -19 3 59 19 39 20 41 272 -28 130 55 19 -19 13 49 130 6 55 -18 54 6 131 3 55 -19 17 15 129 58 33 -18 50 38 0.84
129 56 23 -19 36 13 19 39 27 41 273 -28 130 20 38 -19 46 8 129 32 24 -19 26 17 130 29 11 -19 49 35 129 24 4 -19 22 47 0.84
129 22 16 -20 8 24 19 39 34 42 273 -29 129 46 26 -20 18 22 128 58 22 -19 58 23 129 54 57 -20 21 51 128 50 3 -19 54 52 0.84
128 48 36 -20 40 30 19 39 41 42 274 -29 129 12 41 -20 50 32 128 24 46 -20 30 26 129 21 11 -20 54 3 128 16 29 -20 26 53 0.84
128 15 22 -21 12 34 19 39 48 43 275 -30 128 39 23 -21 22 40 127 51 36 -21 2 25 128 47 52 -21 26 11 127 43 20 -20 58 51 0.84
127 42 32 -21 44 34 19 39 55 43 275 -30 128 6 30 -21 54 44 127 18 49 -21 34 21 128 14 57 -21 58 17 127 10 35 -21 30 46 0.84
127 10 5 -22 16 32 19 40 2 43 276 -31 127 34 0 -22 26 45 126 46 25 -22 6 15 127 42 26 -22 30 20 126 38 12 -22 2 39 0.84
126 38 0 -22 48 27 19 40 9 44 277 -31 127 1 53 -22 58 45 126 14 23 -22 38 7 127 10 18 -23 2 20 126 6 10 -22 34 29 0.84
126 6 17 -23 20 21 19 40 16 44 278 -32 126 30 7 -23 30 42 125 42 41 -23 9 57 126 38 31 -23 34 19 125 34 29 -23 6 18 0.84
125 34 52 -23 52 13 19 40 23 45 278 -32 125 58 41 -24 2 38 125 11 18 -23 41 45 126 7 5 -24 6 17 125 3 7 -23 38 5 0.84
125 3 47 -24 24 3 19 40 30 45 279 -32 125 27 34 -24 34 33 124 40 14 -24 13 32 125 35 58 -24 38 13 124 32 3 -24 9 50 0.84
124 32 59 -24 55 53 19 40 37 45 280 -33 124 56 46 -25 6 26 124 9 27 -24 45 18 125 5 9 -25 10 8 124 1 16 -24 41 35 0.84
124 2 28 -25 27 43 19 40 44 46 281 -33 124 26 14 -25 38 20 123 38 57 -25 17 4 124 34 37 -25 42 2 123 30 46 -25 13 19 0.84
123 32 13 -25 59 32 19 40 51 46 282 -34 123 55 59 -26 10 13 123 8 42 -25 48 49 124 4 22 -26 13 57 123 0 31 -25 45 3 0.84
123 2 14 -26 31 21 19 40 58 46 282 -34 123 26 0 -26 42 6 122 38 42 -26 20 34 123 34 23 -26 45 51 122 30 31 -26 16 47 0.84
122 32 28 -27 3 10 19 41 5 47 283 -34 122 56 15 -27 13 59 122 8 56 -26 52 20 123 4 38 -27 17 46 122 0 45 -26 48 31 0.85
122 2 56 -27 35 0 19 41 12 47 284 -35 122 26 44 -27 45 53 121 39 23 -27 24 6 122 35 8 -27 49 41 121 31 12 -27 20 16 0.85
121 33 37 -28 6 51 19 41 19 47 285 -35 121 57 26 -28 17 48 121 10 3 -27 55 53 122 5 50 -28 21 37 121 1 51 -27 52 1 0.85
121 4 30 -28 38 43 19 41 26 47 286 -36 121 28 21 -28 49 44 120 40 55 -28 27 41 121 36 45 -28 53 35 120 32 42 -28 23 48 0.85
120 35 35 -29 10 37 19 41 32 48 287 -36 120 59 27 -29 21 41 120 11 57 -28 59 30 121 7 52 -29 25 34 120 3 44 -28 55 36 0.85
120 6 50 -29 42 32 19 41 39 48 288 -36 120 30 44 -29 53 41 119 43 10 -29 31 21 120 39 10 -29 57 35 119 34 56 -29 27 26 0.85
119 38 15 -30 14 29 19 41 46 48 289 -36 120 2 12 -30 25 42 119 14 33 -30 3 14 120 10 39 -30 29 38 119 6 18 -29 59 17 0.85
119 9 49 -30 46 28 19 41 53 48 290 -37 119 33 49 -30 57 46 118 46 4 -30 35 9 119 42 17 -31 1 43 118 37 49 -30 31 11 0.85
118 41 33 -31 18 30 19 42 0 48 290 -37 119 5 36 -31 29 52 118 17 45 -31 7 7 119 14 5 -31 33 51 118 9 28 -31 3 7 0.85
118 13 24 -31 50 35 19 42 7 49 291 -37 118 37 30 -32 2 1 117 49 33 -31 39 7 118 46 1 -32 6 1 117 41 15 -31 35 6 0.85
117 45 23 -32 22 43 19 42 14 49 292 -38 118 9 33 -32 34 14 117 21 28 -32 11 11 118 18 4 -32 38 15 117 13 9 -32 7 8 0.85
117 17 29 -32 54 54 19 42 21 49 293 -38 117 41 43 -33 6 30 116 53 30 -32 43 18 117 50 16 -33 10 33 116 45 9 -32 39 14 0.85
116 49 41 -33 27 9 19 42 28 49 294 -38 117 13 59 -33 38 49 116 25 38 -33 15 28 117 22 34 -33 42 54 116 17 16 -33 11 22 0.85
116 21 59 -33 59 28 19 42 35 49 295 -38 116 46 22 -34 11 13 115 57 51 -33 47 43 116 54 58 -34 15 19 115 49 28 -33 43 35 0.85
115 54 22 -34 31 51 19 42 42 49 296 -39 116 18 50 -34 43 41 115 30 9 -34 20 1 116 27 28 -34 47 49 115 21 44 -34 15 52 0.86
115 26 49 -35 4 19 19 42 49 49 297 -39 115 51 23 -35 16 13 115 2 32 -34 52 24 116 0 3 -35 20 23 114 54 5 -34 48 13 0.86
114 59 21 -35 36 51 19 42 56 49 298 -39 115 24 0 -35 48 51 114 34 58 -35 24 51 115 32 42 -35 53 2 114 26 29 -35 20 39 0.86
114 31 56 -36 9 29 19 43 3 49 299 -39 114 56 41 -36 21 33 114 7 28 -35 57 24 115 5 25 -36 25 46 113 58 57 -35 53 10 0.86
114 4 34 -36 42 12 19 43 10 49 300 -39 114 29 26 -36 54 21 113 40 0 -36 30 2 114 38 12 -36 58 36 113 31 27 -36 25 46 0.86
113 37 15 -37 15 1 19 43 17 49 301 -40 114 2 13 -37 27 15 113 12 34 -37 2 45 114 11 1 -37 31 32 113 3 59 -36 58 27 0.86
Uncertainty in time = +/- 2 secs
Prediction of 2019 Jul 21.0
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