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Updated: 2019 FEB 01, 00:46 UT
Event Rank : 72
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2019 Mar 19 UT, the 31.3 km diameter asteroid (484) Pittsburghia will occult a 12.4 mag star in the constellation Leo for observers along a fairly narrow path across Australia across Flinders Island, from Yarram across Victoria to Mildura, including northern Melbourne and Bendigo, across central South Australia just north of Port Augusta, and across northern Western Australia to near Port Headland.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 1.96 mag to 14.20 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 3.3 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
150 33 32 -42 0 0 12 58 46 26 351 -45 150 55 45 150 11 14 151 25 0 149 41 43 1.05
149 22 24 -41 0 0 12 58 56 28 352 -45 149 44 30 149 0 13 150 13 34 148 30 51 1.05
148 10 38 -40 0 0 12 59 7 29 353 -46 148 32 39 147 48 33 149 1 36 147 19 18 1.05
146 58 10 -39 0 0 12 59 18 30 354 -46 147 20 6 146 36 9 147 48 57 146 6 59 1.05
145 44 53 -38 0 0 12 59 30 31 356 -47 146 6 47 145 22 55 146 35 34 144 53 48 1.05
144 30 42 -37 0 0 12 59 42 32 357 -47 144 52 34 144 8 44 145 21 19 143 39 38 1.05
143 15 29 -36 0 0 12 59 55 33 358 -47 143 37 22 142 53 31 144 6 7 142 24 24 1.05
141 59 8 -35 0 0 13 0 8 34 360 -48 142 21 3 141 37 9 142 49 50 141 7 58 1.05
140 41 33 -34 0 0 13 0 22 35 1 -48 141 3 31 140 19 29 141 32 23 139 50 14 1.05
139 22 35 -33 0 0 13 0 36 36 2 -48 139 44 39 139 0 26 140 13 37 138 31 2 1.05
138 2 6 -32 0 0 13 0 51 37 4 -48 138 24 17 137 39 49 138 53 25 137 10 15 1.05
136 39 57 -31 0 0 13 1 6 38 6 -48 137 2 17 136 17 30 137 31 37 135 47 42 1.05
135 15 58 -30 0 0 13 1 22 39 7 -47 135 38 30 134 53 19 136 8 4 134 23 14 1.05
133 49 57 -29 0 0 13 1 39 39 9 -47 134 12 43 133 27 4 134 42 35 132 56 39 1.05
132 21 43 -28 0 0 13 1 56 40 11 -47 132 44 46 131 58 32 133 14 59 131 27 43 1.05
130 51 0 -27 0 0 13 2 14 41 13 -46 131 14 23 130 27 29 131 45 1 129 56 12 1.05
129 17 33 -26 0 0 13 2 33 42 15 -46 129 41 19 128 53 37 130 12 27 128 21 47 1.05
127 41 2 -25 0 0 13 2 52 42 17 -45 128 5 16 127 16 38 128 36 59 126 44 10 1.05
126 1 6 -24 0 0 13 3 13 43 19 -44 126 25 52 125 36 9 126 58 15 125 2 55 1.05
124 17 18 -23 0 0 13 3 34 43 21 -43 124 42 42 123 51 42 125 15 53 123 17 34 1.05
122 29 7 -22 0 0 13 3 55 43 24 -42 122 55 15 122 2 45 123 29 23 121 27 33 1.05
120 35 54 -21 0 0 13 4 18 44 26 -41 121 2 55 120 8 37 121 38 10 119 32 10 1.05
118 36 50 -20 0 0 13 4 42 44 29 -39 119 4 55 118 8 27 119 41 30 117 30 28 1.05
116 30 54 -19 0 0 13 5 7 44 31 -38 117 0 15 116 1 10 117 38 27 115 21 19 1.05
Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude
115 0 0 -18 18 55 13 5 25 43 33 -37 -18 5 25 -18 32 28 -17 47 42 -18 50 28 1.05
114 0 0 -17 52 49 13 5 37 43 35 -36 -17 39 24 -18 6 17 -17 21 47 -18 24 10 1.04
113 0 0 -17 27 32 13 5 49 43 36 -35 -17 14 12 -17 40 55 -16 56 41 -17 58 42 1.04
112 0 0 -17 3 3 13 6 0 43 37 -35 -16 49 47 -17 16 22 -16 32 23 -17 34 2 1.04
Uncertainty in time = +/- 4 secs
Prediction of 2019 Feb 1.0
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