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Updated: 2018 JAN 17, 15:32 UT
Event Rank : 93
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2018 Feb 03 UT, the 94 km diameter asteroid (491) Carina will occult a 10.9 mag star in the constellation Eridanus for observers along a south-to-north path across Western Australia beginning near Albany, Esperance and moving north passing near Mount Magnet, Karratha and Port Hedland.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 3.45 mag to 14.30 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 9.1 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
121 33 51 -36 34 28 16 16 32 16 281 -37 119 48 12 -36 23 27 123 30 3 -36 45 18 118 33 16 -36 14 59 125 7 57 -36 53 24 -2.51
121 6 18 -35 57 54 16 16 38 16 281 -38 119 23 54 -35 46 55 122 58 22 -36 8 43 118 11 2 -35 38 29 124 32 10 -36 16 49 -2.51
120 41 12 -35 21 34 16 16 44 17 281 -38 119 1 42 -35 10 38 122 29 35 -35 32 21 117 50 42 -35 2 14 123 59 51 -35 40 27 -2.51
120 18 19 -34 45 27 16 16 50 17 281 -39 118 41 27 -34 34 34 122 3 27 -34 56 13 117 32 9 -34 26 12 123 30 37 -35 4 18 -2.52
119 57 29 -34 9 35 16 16 55 18 281 -40 118 23 0 -33 58 44 121 39 43 -34 20 18 117 15 15 -33 50 25 123 4 7 -34 28 22 -2.52
119 38 33 -33 33 55 16 17 1 18 281 -40 118 6 13 -33 23 7 121 18 9 -33 44 36 116 59 53 -33 14 50 122 40 7 -33 52 39 -2.52
119 21 22 -32 58 28 16 17 7 18 281 -41 117 51 0 -32 47 43 120 58 36 -33 9 7 116 45 57 -32 39 28 122 18 22 -33 17 8 -2.53
119 5 49 -32 23 13 16 17 13 19 281 -41 117 37 14 -32 12 30 120 40 54 -32 33 49 116 33 23 -32 4 18 121 58 43 -32 41 49 -2.53
118 51 48 -31 48 10 16 17 19 19 281 -42 117 24 52 -31 37 30 120 24 56 -31 58 44 116 22 6 -31 29 20 121 40 58 -32 6 42 -2.53
118 39 13 -31 13 18 16 17 25 19 281 -42 117 13 47 -31 2 42 120 10 35 -31 23 50 116 12 2 -30 54 33 121 25 1 -31 31 46 -2.54
118 28 0 -30 38 38 16 17 31 19 281 -43 117 3 57 -30 28 4 119 57 45 -30 49 7 116 3 7 -30 19 58 121 10 44 -30 57 2 -2.54
118 18 4 -30 4 9 16 17 37 20 281 -44 116 55 16 -29 53 37 119 46 20 -30 14 35 115 55 18 -29 45 33 120 58 0 -30 22 28 -2.54
118 9 21 -29 29 49 16 17 43 20 280 -44 116 47 43 -29 19 21 119 36 17 -29 40 13 115 48 32 -29 11 19 120 46 45 -29 48 4 -2.55
118 1 48 -28 55 40 16 17 49 20 280 -45 116 41 14 -28 45 14 119 27 30 -29 6 2 115 42 46 -28 37 15 120 36 53 -29 13 51 -2.55
117 55 23 -28 21 41 16 17 55 20 280 -45 116 35 47 -28 11 18 119 19 57 -28 32 0 115 37 59 -28 3 20 120 28 21 -28 39 48 -2.55
117 50 1 -27 47 51 16 18 0 20 280 -46 116 31 18 -27 37 31 119 13 33 -27 58 8 115 34 7 -27 29 35 120 21 4 -28 5 53 -2.56
117 45 41 -27 14 11 16 18 6 21 280 -46 116 27 47 -27 3 53 119 8 18 -27 24 24 115 31 10 -26 55 59 120 15 0 -27 32 8 -2.56
117 42 21 -26 40 39 16 18 12 21 280 -47 116 25 12 -26 30 23 119 4 7 -26 50 50 115 29 5 -26 22 32 120 10 5 -26 58 32 -2.57
117 39 58 -26 7 15 16 18 18 21 279 -48 116 23 30 -25 57 2 119 0 58 -26 17 24 115 27 51 -25 49 13 120 6 17 -26 25 5 -2.57
117 38 32 -25 34 0 16 18 24 21 279 -48 116 22 40 -25 23 50 118 58 51 -25 44 7 115 27 26 -25 16 2 120 3 34 -25 51 45 -2.57
117 38 0 -25 0 53 16 18 30 21 279 -49 116 22 41 -24 50 45 118 57 43 -25 10 57 115 27 50 -24 42 59 120 1 55 -25 18 34 -2.58
117 38 22 -24 27 54 16 18 36 21 279 -49 116 23 32 -24 17 48 118 57 32 -24 37 55 115 29 2 -24 10 4 120 1 16 -24 45 30 2.58
117 39 36 -23 55 2 16 18 42 21 279 -50 116 25 12 -23 44 58 118 58 17 -24 5 1 115 31 0 -23 37 16 120 1 38 -24 12 34 2.58
117 41 42 -23 22 17 16 18 48 21 278 -50 116 27 40 -23 12 16 118 59 58 -23 32 14 115 33 44 -23 4 36 120 2 59 -23 39 45 2.59
117 44 38 -22 49 39 16 18 54 21 278 -51 116 30 56 -22 39 40 119 2 34 -22 59 33 115 37 13 -22 32 2 120 5 17 -23 7 3 2.59
117 48 24 -22 17 7 16 19 0 21 278 -51 116 34 58 -22 7 11 119 6 3 -22 26 59 115 41 27 -21 59 34 120 8 32 -22 34 27 2.60
117 53 0 -21 44 42 16 19 5 21 278 -52 116 39 47 -21 34 48 119 10 26 -21 54 32 115 46 25 -21 27 13 120 12 45 -22 1 58 2.60
117 58 25 -21 12 23 16 19 11 21 277 -52 116 45 22 -21 2 32 119 15 41 -21 22 11 115 52 8 -20 54 58 120 17 53 -21 29 35 2.60
118 4 40 -20 40 10 16 19 17 21 277 -53 116 51 43 -20 30 21 119 21 50 -20 49 56 115 58 34 -20 22 49 120 23 58 -20 57 18 2.61
118 11 44 -20 8 3 16 19 23 21 277 -54 116 58 50 -19 58 16 119 28 51 -20 17 46 116 5 44 -19 50 46 120 30 59 -20 25 7 2.61
118 19 36 -19 36 1 16 19 29 21 277 -54 117 6 43 -19 26 16 119 36 46 -19 45 42 116 13 38 -19 18 48 120 38 56 -19 53 1 2.62
118 28 19 -19 4 4 16 19 35 21 276 -55 117 15 22 -18 54 21 119 45 34 -19 13 43 116 22 17 -18 46 55 120 47 50 -19 21 0 2.62
118 37 51 -18 32 12 16 19 41 21 276 -55 117 24 49 -18 22 32 119 55 15 -18 41 49 116 31 39 -18 15 7 120 57 42 -18 49 4 2.62
118 48 14 -18 0 25 16 19 47 20 276 -56 117 35 2 -17 50 47 120 5 52 -18 9 59 116 41 47 -17 43 23 121 8 32 -18 17 13 2.63
118 59 29 -17 28 43 16 19 53 20 275 -56 117 46 3 -17 19 6 120 17 24 -17 38 15 116 52 40 -17 11 45 121 20 21 -17 45 26 2.63
119 11 36 -16 57 5 16 19 59 20 275 -57 117 57 53 -16 47 30 120 29 53 -17 6 34 117 4 19 -16 40 10 121 33 12 -17 13 44 2.64
119 24 36 -16 25 30 16 20 5 20 275 -57 118 10 32 -16 15 58 120 43 20 -16 34 58 117 16 46 -16 8 40 121 47 6 -16 42 6 2.64
119 38 31 -15 54 0 16 20 10 20 275 -58 118 24 2 -15 44 30 120 57 48 -16 3 25 117 30 0 -15 37 13 122 2 4 -16 10 31 2.64
119 53 23 -15 22 33 16 20 16 20 274 -58 118 38 24 -15 13 6 121 13 17 -15 31 56 117 44 4 -15 5 50 122 18 9 -15 39 0 2.65
120 9 13 -14 51 10 16 20 22 19 274 -59 118 53 40 -14 41 45 121 29 50 -15 0 30 117 58 58 -14 34 31 122 35 24 -15 7 32 2.65
120 26 3 -14 19 50 16 20 28 19 274 -59 119 9 50 -14 10 27 121 47 31 -14 29 8 118 14 44 -14 3 15 122 53 53 -14 36 8 2.66
120 43 56 -13 48 33 16 20 34 19 274 -60 119 26 59 -13 39 12 122 6 21 -13 57 48 118 31 24 -13 32 1 123 13 39 -14 4 46 2.66
121 2 55 -13 17 18 16 20 40 18 273 -60 119 45 6 -13 8 0 122 26 26 -13 26 31 118 48 59 -13 0 51 123 34 46 -13 33 26 2.67
121 23 3 -12 46 7 16 20 46 18 273 -61 120 4 17 -12 36 51 122 47 48 -12 55 16 119 7 33 -12 29 43 123 57 21 -13 2 9 2.67
121 44 24 -12 14 57 16 20 52 18 273 -61 120 24 32 -12 5 43 123 10 33 -12 24 4 119 27 8 -11 58 38 124 21 29 -12 30 54 2.67
122 7 3 -11 43 49 16 20 58 17 273 -62 120 45 57 -11 34 38 123 34 48 -11 52 53 119 47 46 -11 27 35 124 47 18 -11 59 41 2.68
122 31 4 -11 12 43 16 21 4 17 272 -62 121 8 34 -11 3 35 124 0 38 -11 21 44 120 9 32 -10 56 33 125 14 58 -11 28 29 2.68
122 56 34 -10 41 39 16 21 10 17 272 -63 121 32 29 -10 32 34 124 28 13 -10 50 36 120 32 28 -10 25 34 125 44 39 -10 57 18 2.69
123 23 39 -10 10 36 16 21 15 16 272 -63 121 57 47 -10 1 34 124 57 42 -10 19 29 120 56 41 - 9 54 36 126 16 36 -10 26 7 2.69
123 52 29 - 9 39 33 16 21 21 16 272 -63 122 24 34 - 9 30 35 125 29 18 - 9 48 22 121 22 13 - 9 23 39 126 51 6 - 9 54 56 2.70
124 23 13 - 9 8 31 16 21 27 15 271 -64 122 52 58 - 8 59 36 126 3 16 - 9 17 16 121 49 13 - 8 52 43 127 28 31 - 9 23 45 2.70
124 56 5 - 8 37 30 16 21 33 15 271 -64 123 23 7 - 8 28 38 126 39 55 - 8 46 9 122 17 47 - 8 21 48 128 9 21 - 8 52 33 2.71
Uncertainty in time = +/- 4 secs
Prediction of 2018 Jan 17.0
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