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Updated: 2017 Dec 15, 16:57 UT
Event Rank : 95
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2018 Jan 06 UT, the 59 km diameter asteroid (438) Zeuxo will occult a 11.2 mag star in the constellation Gemini for observers along a path across New Zealand during morning twilight, running near Wanganui and Palmerston North, then across Queensland and Northern Territory, passing near Rockhampton and Katherine.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.41 mag to 13.50 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 4.6 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 2455-01334-1 by 438 Zeuxo on 2018 Jan 6
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
176 58 23 -42 0 0 15 26 4 6 323 -12 177 39 10 176 17 24 178 8 16 175 47 56 0.84
175 45 30 -41 0 0 15 26 6 7 324 -14 176 26 1 175 4 47 176 54 55 174 35 30 0.87
174 32 17 -40 0 0 15 26 8 8 325 -15 175 12 34 173 51 46 175 41 18 173 22 38 0.89
173 18 36 -39 0 0 15 26 10 10 326 -16 173 58 43 172 38 16 174 27 19 172 9 15 0.91
172 4 23 -38 0 0 15 26 13 11 327 -18 172 44 22 171 24 10 173 12 52 170 55 14 0.92
170 49 30 -37 0 0 15 26 17 13 328 -19 171 29 24 170 9 22 171 57 50 169 40 29 0.93
169 33 52 -36 0 0 15 26 21 14 328 -21 170 13 43 168 53 45 170 42 6 168 24 53 0.93
168 17 21 -35 0 0 15 26 25 15 329 -22 168 57 12 167 37 13 169 25 35 167 8 19 0.94
166 59 50 -34 0 0 15 26 30 17 330 -24 167 39 45 166 19 38 168 8 9 165 50 41 0.95
165 41 12 -33 0 0 15 26 35 18 331 -25 166 21 13 165 0 53 166 49 42 164 31 50 0.95
164 21 18 -32 0 0 15 26 41 19 332 -26 165 1 29 163 40 49 165 30 4 163 11 38 0.95
163 0 2 -31 0 0 15 26 47 21 333 -28 163 40 25 162 19 18 164 9 9 161 49 56 0.96
161 37 11 -30 0 0 15 26 54 22 334 -29 162 17 52 160 56 10 162 46 46 160 26 35 0.96
160 12 38 -29 0 0 15 27 1 24 334 -31 160 53 39 159 31 15 161 22 48 159 1 23 0.96
158 46 10 -28 0 0 15 27 9 25 335 -32 159 27 36 158 4 21 159 57 2 157 34 8 0.96
157 17 35 -27 0 0 15 27 18 27 337 -34 157 59 31 156 35 14 158 29 17 156 4 38 0.96
155 46 39 -26 0 0 15 27 27 28 338 -35 156 29 10 155 3 40 156 59 20 154 32 36 0.96
154 13 6 -25 0 0 15 27 37 29 339 -37 154 56 18 153 29 23 155 26 56 152 57 46 0.97
152 36 36 -24 0 0 15 27 47 31 340 -39 153 20 37 151 52 2 153 51 48 151 19 46 0.97
150 56 49 -23 0 0 15 27 59 32 341 -40 151 41 46 150 11 16 152 13 36 149 38 14 0.97
149 13 20 -22 0 0 15 28 11 34 343 -42 149 59 23 148 26 36 150 31 58 147 52 42 0.97
147 25 37 -21 0 0 15 28 24 35 344 -43 148 12 58 146 37 30 148 46 26 146 2 33 0.97
145 33 5 -20 0 0 15 28 38 37 346 -45 146 21 58 144 43 20 146 56 28 144 7 8 0.97
143 34 56 -19 0 0 15 28 53 38 348 -46 144 25 39 142 43 14 145 1 23 142 5 33 0.97
141 30 14 -18 0 0 15 29 9 39 350 -48 142 23 9 140 36 9 143 0 22 139 56 38 0.97
140 0 0 -17 18 44 15 29 21 40 351 -49 -16 54 3 -17 43 35 -16 36 30 -18 1 31 0.97
139 0 0 -16 52 17 15 29 29 41 352 -50 -16 27 45 -17 17 0 -16 10 18 -17 34 49 0.97
138 0 0 -16 26 38 15 29 37 41 353 -50 -16 2 15 -16 51 12 -15 44 54 -17 8 55 0.97
137 0 0 -16 1 47 15 29 45 42 354 -51 -15 37 32 -16 26 13 -15 20 17 -16 43 49 0.97
136 0 0 -15 37 43 15 29 54 42 355 -51 -15 13 36 -16 2 1 -14 56 26 -16 19 32 0.97
135 0 0 -15 14 28 15 30 2 43 356 -52 -14 50 28 -15 38 38 -14 33 24 -15 56 3 0.97
134 0 0 -14 52 0 15 30 10 43 357 -52 -14 28 7 -15 16 3 -14 11 8 -15 33 22 0.97
133 0 0 -14 30 20 15 30 18 44 358 -53 -14 6 34 -14 54 15 -13 49 40 -15 11 30 0.97
132 0 0 -14 9 27 15 30 27 44 360 -53 -13 45 48 -14 33 16 -13 28 59 -14 50 25 0.97
131 0 0 -13 49 22 15 30 35 44 1 -54 -13 25 50 -14 13 4 -13 9 4 -14 30 9 0.97
130 0 0 -13 30 4 15 30 43 45 2 -54 -13 6 38 -13 53 40 -12 49 57 -14 10 40 0.97
129 0 0 -13 11 34 15 30 52 45 3 -54 -12 48 14 -13 35 4 -12 31 37 -13 52 0 0.97
128 0 0 -12 53 51 15 31 0 45 4 -55 -12 30 36 -13 17 15 -12 14 3 -13 34 7 0.97
127 0 0 -12 36 55 15 31 9 45 5 -55 -12 13 46 -13 0 14 -11 57 17 -13 17 2 0.97
126 0 0 -12 20 47 15 31 17 45 7 -55 -11 57 42 -12 44 0 -11 41 17 -13 0 44 0.97
125 0 0 -12 5 25 15 31 26 46 8 -55 -11 42 26 -12 28 34 -11 26 3 -12 45 14 0.97
124 0 0 -11 50 50 15 31 34 46 9 -55 -11 27 55 -12 13 55 -11 11 36 -12 30 32 0.97
123 0 0 -11 37 3 15 31 42 46 10 -56 -11 14 12 -12 0 3 -10 57 56 -12 16 36 0.97
122 0 0 -11 24 2 15 31 51 46 11 -56 -11 1 15 -11 46 58 -10 45 2 -12 3 28 0.97
121 0 0 -11 11 47 15 31 59 46 13 -56 -10 49 4 -11 34 40 -10 32 54 -11 51 8 0.97
120 0 0 -11 0 20 15 32 8 46 14 -56 -10 37 40 -11 23 8 -10 21 32 -11 39 34 0.97
Uncertainty in time = +/- 2 secs
Prediction of 2017 Dec 15.0
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