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Updated: 2017 Aug 14, 05:34 UT
Event Rank : 99
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2017 Oct 09 UT, the 129 km diameter asteroid (56) Melete will occult a 11.8 mag star in the constellation Orion for observers along a wide path across Australia, beginning near Broome, running across north-eastern West Australia, central Australia, south-western New South Wales, central Victoria and north-eastern Tasmania, passing over Mildura, Bendigo, Ballarat and Melbourne.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.04 mag to 13.70 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 16.9 seconds. Note waning gibbous moon nearby.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of 2UCAC 37143102 by 56 Melete on 2017 Oct 9
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
151 42 38 -45 0 0 18 31 30 30 5 -7 150 19 29 153 4 52 149 54 20 153 29 22 1.02
150 51 34 -44 0 0 18 31 17 31 6 -8 149 29 16 152 12 56 149 4 23 152 37 10 1.02
150 0 11 -43 0 0 18 31 4 32 7 -9 148 38 39 151 20 46 148 13 59 151 44 45 1.02
149 8 25 -42 0 0 18 30 50 32 8 -10 147 47 33 150 28 18 147 23 5 150 52 5 1.02
148 16 13 -41 0 0 18 30 36 33 10 -11 146 55 57 149 35 29 146 31 39 149 59 4 1.03
147 23 31 -40 0 0 18 30 22 34 11 -12 146 3 45 148 42 15 145 39 36 149 5 40 1.03
146 30 16 -39 0 0 18 30 7 35 12 -13 145 10 55 147 48 32 144 46 53 148 11 49 1.03
145 36 24 -38 0 0 18 29 51 36 13 -14 144 17 23 146 54 18 143 53 27 147 17 28 1.03
144 41 51 -37 0 0 18 29 35 37 15 -15 143 23 5 145 59 27 142 59 13 146 22 31 1.03
143 46 33 -36 0 0 18 29 19 37 16 -16 142 27 57 145 3 57 142 4 8 145 26 57 1.04
142 50 25 -35 0 0 18 29 2 38 17 -18 141 31 54 144 7 41 141 8 6 144 30 39 1.04
141 53 23 -34 0 0 18 28 44 39 19 -19 140 34 52 143 10 38 140 11 3 143 33 34 1.04
140 55 23 -33 0 0 18 28 27 39 20 -20 139 36 45 142 12 40 139 12 53 142 35 36 1.04
139 56 17 -32 0 0 18 28 8 40 22 -21 138 37 27 141 13 43 138 13 31 141 36 42 1.05
138 56 2 -31 0 0 18 27 49 41 24 -22 137 36 53 140 13 42 137 12 50 140 36 44 1.05
137 54 29 -30 0 0 18 27 30 41 25 -24 136 34 55 139 12 30 136 10 44 139 35 38 1.05
136 51 33 -29 0 0 18 27 10 42 27 -25 135 31 26 138 10 2 135 7 4 138 33 16 1.05
135 47 5 -28 0 0 18 26 50 42 29 -26 134 26 18 137 6 8 134 1 42 137 29 33 1.06
134 40 57 -27 0 0 18 26 29 42 31 -28 133 19 21 136 0 43 132 54 29 136 24 18 1.06
133 32 59 -26 0 0 18 26 8 43 32 -29 132 10 24 134 53 36 131 45 13 135 17 26 1.06
132 23 0 -25 0 0 18 25 46 43 34 -30 130 59 16 133 44 38 130 33 41 134 8 44 1.06
131 10 47 -24 0 0 18 25 23 43 36 -32 129 45 41 132 33 37 129 19 40 132 58 3 1.07
129 56 7 -23 0 0 18 25 0 43 38 -33 128 29 25 131 20 20 128 2 53 131 45 9 1.07
128 38 42 -22 0 0 18 24 37 43 40 -35 127 10 8 130 4 33 126 42 59 130 29 49 1.07
127 18 12 -21 0 0 18 24 12 43 42 -37 125 47 27 128 45 58 125 19 34 129 11 46 1.08
125 54 15 -20 0 0 18 23 47 43 45 -38 124 20 55 127 24 15 123 52 11 127 50 40 1.08
124 26 21 -19 0 0 18 23 21 42 47 -40 122 49 58 125 59 0 122 20 14 126 26 8 1.08
122 53 57 -18 0 0 18 22 55 42 49 -42 121 13 56 124 29 43 120 42 59 124 57 41 1.09
121 16 19 -17 0 0 18 22 28 41 51 -44 119 31 54 122 55 48 118 59 29 123 24 47 1.09
119 32 31 -16 0 0 18 21 59 40 53 -46 117 42 43 121 16 29 117 8 27 121 46 41 1.10
117 41 20 -15 0 0 18 21 30 39 55 -48 115 44 46 119 30 50 115 8 10 120 2 30 1.10
Uncertainty in time = +/- 3 secs
Prediction of 2017 Aug 14.0
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