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Updated: 2017 JUN 14, 00:35 UT
Event Rank : 88
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2017 Aug 05 UT, the 81 km diameter asteroid (133) Cyrene will occult a 11.1 mag star in the constellation Ophiuchus for observers along a south-to-north path across Western Australia passing near Albany, Jerramungup, Southern Cross and Newman.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 1.67 mag to 12.50 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 21.2 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
118 27 51 -36 39 19 10 45 21 64 83 -16 117 58 27 -36 35 0 118 57 12 -36 43 31 117 33 8 -36 31 12 119 22 25 -36 47 3 -0.47
118 41 11 -35 21 26 10 46 0 65 86 -17 118 12 16 -35 17 13 119 10 4 -35 25 33 117 47 21 -35 13 29 119 34 52 -35 29 1 -0.46
118 52 45 -34 3 33 10 46 38 65 88 -17 118 24 16 -33 59 24 119 21 11 -34 7 35 117 59 44 -33 55 45 119 45 36 -34 10 58 -0.46
119 2 40 -32 45 37 10 47 17 65 91 -17 118 34 36 -32 41 33 119 30 41 -32 49 35 118 10 26 -32 37 58 119 54 44 -32 52 55 -0.46
119 11 3 -31 27 37 10 47 56 66 93 -17 118 43 22 -31 23 37 119 38 40 -31 31 31 118 19 32 -31 20 5 120 2 23 -31 34 48 -0.46
119 17 59 -30 9 31 10 48 34 66 96 -17 118 50 40 -30 5 35 119 45 14 -30 13 22 118 27 8 -30 2 6 120 8 39 -30 16 36 -0.45
119 23 33 -28 51 18 10 49 13 66 99 -17 118 56 35 -28 47 24 119 50 28 -28 55 6 118 33 21 -28 43 58 120 13 35 -28 58 17 -0.45
119 27 51 -27 32 54 10 49 51 66 102 -17 119 1 11 -27 29 3 119 54 27 -27 36 40 118 38 14 -27 25 40 120 17 17 -27 39 48 -0.45
119 30 55 -26 14 19 10 50 30 66 105 -17 119 4 33 -26 10 30 119 57 14 -26 18 2 118 41 51 -26 7 8 120 19 49 -26 21 9 -0.44
119 32 50 -24 55 29 10 51 8 65 107 -17 119 6 45 -24 51 42 119 58 52 -24 59 10 118 44 16 -24 48 22 120 21 13 -25 2 16 -0.44
119 33 38 -23 36 23 10 51 47 65 110 -16 119 7 48 -23 32 38 119 59 25 -23 40 3 118 45 32 -23 29 19 120 21 32 -23 43 7 -0.44
119 33 22 -22 16 58 10 52 26 65 113 -16 119 7 46 -22 13 14 119 58 55 -22 20 36 118 45 42 -22 9 56 120 20 50 -22 23 40 0.43
119 32 4 -20 57 12 10 53 4 64 115 -16 119 6 41 -20 53 28 119 57 24 -21 0 49 118 44 48 -20 50 11 120 19 9 -21 3 52 0.43
119 29 47 -19 37 1 10 53 43 64 118 -16 119 4 35 -19 33 18 119 54 55 -19 40 38 118 42 52 -19 30 2 120 16 29 -19 43 40 0.43
119 26 31 -18 16 24 10 54 21 63 120 -16 119 1 30 -18 12 41 119 51 28 -18 20 1 118 39 56 -18 9 25 120 12 53 -18 23 3 0.42
119 22 17 -16 55 17 10 55 0 63 123 -16 118 57 26 -16 51 34 119 47 5 -16 58 54 118 36 1 -16 48 18 120 8 21 -17 1 56 0.42
Uncertainty in time = +/- 9 secs
Prediction of 2017 Jun 14.0
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