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Updated: 2017 May 29, 01:01 UT
Event Rank : 34
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2017 Jul 19 UT, the 23 km diameter asteroid (2531) Cambridge will occult a 9.5 mag star in the constellation Aquarius for observers along a path across southern Queensland, western New South Wales and Victoria, passing over Bendigo, Ballarat and Anglesea.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 6.50 mag to 16.00 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 2.8 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 6390-00108-1 by 2531 Cambridge on 2017 Jul 19
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
148 13 36 -23 4 30 20 26 40 44 267 -5 148 23 7 -23 5 35 148 4 7 -23 3 25 149 12 50 -23 11 0 147 15 27 -22 57 36 0.96
147 50 11 -24 5 38 20 26 54 44 268 -6 147 59 44 -24 6 44 147 40 40 -24 4 32 148 49 40 -24 12 16 146 51 47 -23 58 36 0.96
147 27 47 -25 6 42 20 27 7 44 269 -6 147 37 23 -25 7 49 147 18 13 -25 5 34 148 27 33 -25 13 27 146 29 5 -24 59 32 0.96
147 6 22 -26 7 41 20 27 21 45 270 -7 147 16 2 -26 8 49 146 56 45 -26 6 32 148 6 30 -26 14 34 146 7 20 -26 0 24 0.96
146 45 57 -27 8 38 20 27 35 45 271 -7 146 55 40 -27 9 48 146 36 16 -27 7 28 147 46 28 -27 15 38 145 46 31 -27 1 15 0.97
146 26 30 -28 9 35 20 27 49 45 273 -8 146 36 18 -28 10 46 146 16 45 -28 8 24 147 27 27 -28 16 42 145 26 39 -28 2 5 0.97
146 8 3 -29 10 33 20 28 3 45 274 -9 146 17 55 -29 11 45 145 58 12 -29 9 21 147 9 29 -29 17 46 145 7 42 -29 2 56 0.97
145 50 34 -30 11 33 20 28 17 45 275 -9 146 0 31 -30 12 46 145 40 38 -30 10 20 146 52 32 -30 18 52 144 49 41 -30 3 50 0.97
145 34 4 -31 12 37 20 28 31 46 276 -10 145 44 7 -31 13 51 145 24 3 -31 11 23 146 36 38 -31 20 2 144 32 37 -31 4 48 0.97
145 18 34 -32 13 47 20 28 45 46 277 -10 145 28 43 -32 15 1 145 8 27 -32 12 32 146 21 48 -32 21 17 144 16 29 -32 5 52 0.98
145 4 6 -33 15 3 20 28 59 46 278 -11 145 14 22 -33 16 19 144 53 52 -33 13 47 146 8 1 -33 22 39 144 1 19 -33 7 3 0.98
144 50 40 -34 16 28 20 29 13 46 279 -11 145 1 3 -34 17 44 144 40 19 -34 15 11 145 55 22 -34 24 8 143 47 9 -34 8 22 0.98
144 38 18 -35 18 2 20 29 27 46 281 -11 144 48 50 -35 19 19 144 27 49 -35 16 44 145 43 50 -35 25 47 143 33 59 -35 9 51 0.98
144 27 3 -36 19 47 20 29 41 45 282 -12 144 37 43 -36 21 5 144 16 25 -36 18 29 145 33 29 -36 27 37 143 21 51 -36 11 32 0.98
144 16 57 -37 21 45 20 29 54 45 283 -12 144 27 46 -37 23 4 144 6 9 -37 20 26 145 24 20 -37 29 39 143 10 48 -37 13 25 0.99
144 8 2 -38 23 57 20 30 8 45 284 -13 144 19 1 -38 25 17 143 57 5 -38 22 38 145 16 29 -38 31 55 143 0 53 -38 15 33 0.99
144 0 23 -39 26 25 20 30 22 45 285 -13 144 11 33 -39 27 45 143 49 15 -39 25 5 145 9 57 -39 34 27 142 52 8 -39 17 57 0.99
143 54 3 -40 29 10 20 30 36 45 286 -13 144 5 24 -40 30 31 143 42 43 -40 27 49 145 4 51 -40 37 15 142 44 37 -40 20 38 0.99
143 49 6 -41 32 14 20 30 50 44 287 -14 144 0 41 -41 33 35 143 37 34 -41 30 53 145 1 14 -41 40 22 142 38 24 -41 23 38 0.99
143 45 40 -42 35 39 20 31 4 44 288 -14 143 57 27 -42 37 0 143 33 54 -42 34 17 144 59 12 -42 43 49 142 33 35 -42 26 59 1.00
143 43 48 -43 39 25 20 31 18 44 289 -14 143 55 51 -43 40 47 143 31 48 -43 38 3 144 58 53 -43 47 37 142 30 14 -43 30 43 1.00
143 43 39 -44 43 36 20 31 32 43 290 -14 143 55 58 -44 44 58 143 31 23 -44 42 13 145 0 25 -44 51 49 142 28 29 -44 34 51 1.00
Uncertainty in time = +/- 9 secs
Prediction of 2017 May 29.0
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