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Updated: 2016 NOV 13, 22:13 UT
Event Rank : 99
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2016 Dec 29 UT, the 77 km diameter asteroid (914) Palisana will occult a 12.5 mag star in the constellation Taurus for observers along a path across western Australia from Darwin across north-western Northern Territory, and across Western Australia from Kununurra to Margaret River, passing a little east of Perth.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 1.05 mag to 13.00 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 6.4 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
114 46 22 -36 0 0 13 33 16 33 6 -19 114 11 52 115 20 58 113 53 16 115 39 40 0.60
115 28 9 -35 0 0 13 33 9 34 6 -20 114 53 58 116 2 26 114 35 33 116 20 58 0.60
116 9 59 -34 0 0 13 33 2 35 5 -21 115 36 6 116 43 57 115 17 50 117 2 20 0.60
116 51 52 -33 0 0 13 32 55 36 4 -22 116 18 16 117 25 34 116 0 9 117 43 48 0.60
117 33 52 -32 0 0 13 32 48 37 4 -23 117 0 30 118 7 18 116 42 32 118 25 24 0.60
118 15 59 -31 0 0 13 32 40 38 3 -24 117 42 52 118 49 12 117 25 1 119 7 10 0.60
118 58 17 -30 0 0 13 32 33 39 2 -25 118 25 22 119 31 16 118 7 39 119 49 8 0.60
119 40 46 -29 0 0 13 32 25 40 1 -27 119 8 3 120 13 34 118 50 26 120 31 20 0.60
120 23 29 -28 0 0 13 32 17 41 0 -28 119 50 57 120 56 7 119 33 25 121 13 47 0.60
121 6 27 -27 0 0 13 32 8 42 360 -29 120 34 5 121 38 56 120 16 39 121 56 31 0.60
121 49 43 -26 0 0 13 32 0 43 359 -30 121 17 29 122 22 4 121 0 7 122 39 35 0.60
122 33 19 -25 0 0 13 31 51 44 358 -31 122 1 12 123 5 32 121 43 54 123 22 59 0.60
123 17 15 -24 0 0 13 31 42 45 357 -32 122 45 14 123 49 23 122 28 0 124 6 47 0.60
124 1 35 -23 0 0 13 31 33 46 356 -33 123 29 39 124 33 38 123 12 27 124 50 59 0.60
124 46 20 -22 0 0 13 31 24 47 355 -35 124 14 28 125 18 19 123 57 18 125 35 38 0.60
125 31 31 -21 0 0 13 31 15 48 354 -36 124 59 42 126 3 28 124 42 34 126 20 46 0.60
126 17 13 -20 0 0 13 31 5 49 353 -37 125 45 25 126 49 8 125 28 18 127 6 25 0.60
127 3 25 -19 0 0 13 30 55 50 351 -38 126 31 39 127 35 20 126 14 32 127 52 37 0.60
127 50 12 -18 0 0 13 30 45 50 350 -40 127 18 24 128 22 7 127 1 18 128 39 25 0.60
128 37 34 -17 0 0 13 30 35 51 349 -41 128 5 45 129 9 31 127 48 38 129 26 50 0.60
129 25 35 -16 0 0 13 30 24 52 347 -42 128 53 43 129 57 35 128 36 34 130 14 56 0.60
130 14 16 -15 0 0 13 30 14 53 346 -43 129 42 20 130 46 21 129 25 10 131 3 45 0.60
131 3 42 -14 0 0 13 30 3 54 344 -44 130 31 40 131 35 52 130 14 27 131 53 19 0.59
131 53 53 -13 0 0 13 29 52 54 343 -46 131 21 46 132 26 11 131 4 29 132 43 41 0.59
132 44 54 -12 0 0 13 29 41 55 341 -47 132 12 39 133 17 20 131 55 18 133 34 55 0.59
133 36 48 -11 0 0 13 29 30 56 339 -48 133 4 23 134 9 24 132 46 57 134 27 4 0.59
134 29 38 -10 0 0 13 29 18 56 338 -50 133 57 2 135 2 25 133 39 31 135 20 12 0.59
135 23 27 - 9 0 0 13 29 6 57 336 -51 134 50 39 135 56 27 134 33 1 136 14 21 0.59
136 18 20 - 8 0 0 13 28 55 58 334 -52 135 45 18 136 51 34 135 27 33 137 9 37 0.59
137 14 21 - 7 0 0 13 28 42 58 332 -53 136 41 3 137 47 51 136 23 10 138 6 3 0.59
138 11 34 - 6 0 0 13 28 30 58 330 -55 137 37 58 138 45 22 137 19 56 139 3 44 0.59
139 10 4 - 5 0 0 13 28 18 59 327 -56 138 36 9 139 44 13 138 17 56 140 2 45 0.59
140 9 56 - 4 0 0 13 28 5 59 325 -57 139 35 39 140 44 28 139 17 15 141 3 13 0.59
141 11 17 - 3 0 0 13 27 52 59 323 -59 140 36 36 141 46 13 140 17 59 142 5 12 0.59
142 14 12 - 2 0 0 13 27 39 60 320 -60 141 39 5 142 49 36 141 20 14 143 8 51 0.59
143 18 50 - 1 0 0 13 27 26 60 318 -62 142 43 13 143 54 44 142 24 6 144 14 16 0.59
144 25 17 0 0 0 13 27 13 60 315 -63 143 49 8 145 1 46 143 29 44 145 21 36 0.59
Uncertainty in time = +/- 2 secs
Prediction of 2016 Nov 13.0
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