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Updated: 2016 SEP 26, 03:02 UT
Event Rank : 66
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2016 Nov 12 UT, the 51 km diameter asteroid (910) Anneliese will occult a 10.7 mag star in the constellation Aquarius for observers along a south-to-north path across eastern parts of Western Australia, passing near Balladonia and Wyndham.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by
5.01 mag to 15.70 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 7.0 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
123 51 27 -38 10 34 12 53 2 60 318 -23 123 32 57 -38 6 21 124 10 1 -38 14 47 123 4 14 -37 59 42 124 39 8 -38 21 19 0.42
124 1 37 -36 48 5 12 53 22 61 316 -24 123 43 27 -36 43 55 124 19 50 -36 52 14 123 15 16 -36 37 22 124 48 23 -36 58 40 0.43
124 12 11 -35 26 21 12 53 43 62 314 -26 123 54 21 -35 22 14 124 30 5 -35 30 27 123 26 38 -35 15 47 124 58 8 -35 36 48 0.43
124 23 9 -34 5 19 12 54 3 62 312 -27 124 5 37 -34 1 15 124 40 46 -34 9 22 123 38 22 -33 54 53 125 8 21 -34 15 38 0.43
124 34 32 -32 44 55 12 54 23 63 309 -28 124 17 16 -32 40 54 124 51 52 -32 48 55 123 50 26 -32 34 37 125 19 1 -32 55 6 0.43
124 46 19 -31 25 5 12 54 44 64 307 -29 124 29 18 -31 21 7 125 3 24 -31 29 2 124 2 51 -31 14 54 125 30 9 -31 35 9 0.43
124 58 30 -30 5 46 12 55 4 64 304 -30 124 41 42 -30 1 51 125 15 21 -30 9 40 124 15 37 -29 55 42 125 41 44 -30 15 43 0.43
125 11 5 -28 46 55 12 55 24 65 301 -31 124 54 30 -28 43 2 125 27 43 -28 50 46 124 28 45 -28 36 57 125 53 45 -28 56 46 0.43
125 24 5 -27 28 28 12 55 44 65 299 -32 125 7 42 -27 24 38 125 40 30 -27 32 17 124 42 14 -27 18 36 126 6 14 -27 38 13 0.44
125 37 29 -26 10 23 12 56 5 65 296 -34 125 21 17 -26 6 35 125 53 44 -26 14 10 124 56 7 -26 0 37 126 19 10 -26 20 2 0.44
125 51 20 -24 52 37 12 56 25 66 293 -35 125 35 18 -24 48 51 126 7 24 -24 56 22 125 10 23 -24 42 57 126 32 34 -25 2 10 0.44
126 5 36 -23 35 7 12 56 45 66 290 -36 125 49 44 -23 31 23 126 21 31 -23 38 49 125 25 4 -23 25 32 126 46 27 -23 44 35 0.44
126 20 20 -22 17 50 12 57 6 66 286 -37 126 4 37 -22 14 8 126 36 7 -22 21 31 125 40 9 -22 8 20 127 0 49 -22 27 13 0.44
126 35 33 -21 0 44 12 57 26 66 283 -38 126 19 57 -20 57 4 126 51 11 -21 4 23 125 55 42 -20 51 19 127 15 41 -21 10 2 0.44
126 51 15 -19 43 47 12 57 46 66 280 -39 126 35 46 -19 40 9 127 6 46 -19 47 24 126 11 42 -19 34 26 127 31 4 -19 53 0 0.44
127 7 27 -18 26 55 12 58 7 66 277 -40 126 52 5 -18 23 19 127 22 52 -18 30 30 126 28 11 -18 17 39 127 47 0 -18 36 4 0.45
127 24 12 -17 10 7 12 58 27 66 274 -42 127 8 55 -17 6 32 127 39 31 -17 13 40 126 45 11 -17 0 55 128 3 29 -17 19 12 0.45
127 41 30 -15 53 19 12 58 47 65 271 -43 127 26 19 -15 49 46 127 56 44 -15 56 51 127 2 42 -15 44 12 128 20 34 -16 2 20 0.45
127 59 24 -14 36 30 12 59 7 65 268 -44 127 44 18 -14 32 59 128 14 33 -14 40 1 127 20 48 -14 27 27 128 38 16 -14 45 27 0.45
128 17 56 -13 19 37 12 59 28 65 266 -45 128 2 53 -13 16 7 128 33 1 -13 23 6 127 39 30 -13 10 37 128 56 37 -13 28 30 0.45
128 37 7 -12 2 38 12 59 48 64 263 -46 128 22 8 -11 59 9 128 52 8 -12 6 5 127 58 50 -11 53 41 129 15 39 -12 11 27 0.46
128 56 59 -10 45 29 13 0 8 63 261 -47 128 42 3 -10 42 1 129 11 58 -10 48 55 128 18 50 -10 36 36 129 35 24 -10 54 15 0.46
129 17 37 - 9 28 8 13 0 29 63 258 -49 129 2 43 - 9 24 42 129 32 33 - 9 31 33 128 39 33 - 9 19 18 129 55 55 - 9 36 51 0.46
129 39 1 - 8 10 33 13 0 49 62 256 -50 129 24 9 - 8 7 8 129 53 55 - 8 13 56 129 1 2 - 8 1 46 130 17 15 - 8 19 12 0.46
130 1 16 - 6 52 40 13 1 9 61 254 -51 129 46 25 - 6 49 17 130 16 9 - 6 56 3 129 23 20 - 6 43 57 130 39 27 - 7 1 16 0.46
Uncertainty in time = +/- 7 secs
Prediction of 2016 Sep 26.0
Use these links for further information:
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[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
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