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Updated: 2016 AUG 25, 22:49 UT
Event Rank : 51
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2016 Sep 20 UT, the 59 km diameter asteroid (671) Carnegia will occult a 9.7 mag star in the constellation Sagittarius for observers along a path across New Zealand, from Whangerei across Auckland and down the east coast of the North Island, across New Plymouth, Wellington and Blenheim in the South Island.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 6.21 mag to 15.90 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 9.2 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
175 5 4 -46 35 43 12 12 3 37 264 -44 174 27 25 -46 38 14 175 43 2 -46 32 59 172 48 0 -46 43 49 177 26 24 -46 24 27 -1.31
174 54 9 -45 42 51 12 12 19 37 264 -45 174 17 5 -45 45 19 175 31 31 -45 40 9 172 39 13 -45 50 50 177 13 18 -45 31 45 -1.31
174 44 56 -44 49 51 12 12 34 37 263 -46 174 8 25 -44 52 17 175 21 46 -44 47 11 172 32 1 -44 57 45 177 2 4 -44 38 51 -1.31
174 37 22 -43 56 42 12 12 49 37 262 -47 174 1 22 -43 59 7 175 13 41 -43 54 3 172 26 19 -44 4 33 176 52 36 -43 45 47 -1.32
174 31 23 -43 3 24 12 13 5 37 262 -48 173 55 51 -43 5 49 175 7 13 -43 0 45 172 22 5 -43 11 15 176 44 51 -42 52 32 -1.32
174 26 54 -42 9 56 12 13 20 37 261 -49 173 51 49 -42 12 22 175 2 18 -42 7 18 172 19 13 -42 17 49 176 38 45 -41 59 4 -1.32
174 23 53 -41 16 18 12 13 35 37 260 -50 173 49 12 -41 18 45 174 58 53 -41 13 39 172 17 42 -41 24 14 176 34 14 -41 5 23 -1.32
174 22 18 -40 22 28 12 13 50 37 260 -51 173 47 59 -40 24 56 174 56 55 -40 19 48 172 17 30 -40 30 30 176 31 15 -40 11 29 -1.33
174 22 5 -39 28 26 12 14 6 36 259 -51 173 48 7 -39 30 56 174 56 21 -39 25 43 172 18 34 -39 36 35 176 29 47 -39 17 19 -1.33
174 23 14 -38 34 10 12 14 21 36 258 -52 173 49 35 -38 36 42 174 57 11 -38 31 25 172 20 52 -38 42 29 176 29 47 -38 22 54 1.33
174 25 42 -37 39 39 12 14 36 36 258 -53 173 52 20 -37 42 15 174 59 23 -37 36 51 172 24 24 -37 48 10 176 31 13 -37 28 11 1.34
174 29 29 -36 44 52 12 14 52 36 257 -54 173 56 23 -36 47 31 175 2 55 -36 42 0 172 29 8 -36 53 36 176 34 6 -36 33 9 1.34
174 34 35 -35 49 47 12 15 7 35 256 -55 174 1 42 -35 52 31 175 7 47 -35 46 50 172 35 4 -35 58 47 176 38 23 -35 37 47 1.34
174 40 58 -34 54 23 12 15 22 35 256 -56 174 8 17 -34 57 12 175 13 58 -34 51 21 172 42 11 -35 3 41 176 44 5 -34 42 3 1.34
174 48 39 -33 58 38 12 15 38 35 255 -57 174 16 8 -34 1 32 175 21 30 -33 55 30 172 50 31 -34 8 16 176 51 13 -33 45 55 1.35
174 57 39 -33 2 30 12 15 53 34 254 -58 174 25 16 -33 5 30 175 30 22 -32 59 15 173 0 2 -33 12 31 176 59 47 -32 49 22 1.35
175 7 59 -32 5 56 12 16 8 34 253 -59 174 35 42 -32 9 4 175 40 36 -32 2 34 173 10 46 -32 16 23 177 9 47 -31 52 20 1.35
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ... .. .. .. .. .. ... .. .. .. .. .. -169 37 19 - 3 6 58 ... .. .. .. .. .. ....
Uncertainty in time = +/- 15 secs
Prediction of 2016 Aug 25.0
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[Observing Details]
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