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Updated: 2016 MAY 05, 01:11 UT
Event Rank : 67
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2016 Jun 27 UT, the 66 km diameter asteroid (516) Amherstia will occult a 12.4 mag star in the constellation Norma for observers along a path across New Zealand, passing just west of Cape Reinga, then from Haast to Invercargill in the South Island.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 0.26 mag to 11.00 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 10.9 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
166 49 19 -48 26 23 7 44 1 62 95 -25 166 21 1 -48 19 41 167 17 39 -48 32 58 165 38 37 -48 9 24 168 0 13 -48 42 37 -0.52
167 28 27 -47 14 22 7 44 25 62 96 -25 167 0 43 -47 7 50 167 56 12 -47 20 46 166 19 9 -46 57 50 168 37 53 -47 30 8 -0.51
168 4 16 -46 1 57 7 44 48 62 98 -26 167 37 4 -45 55 36 168 31 28 -46 8 11 166 56 19 -45 45 51 169 12 19 -46 17 19 -0.51
168 37 1 -44 49 10 7 45 12 63 100 -26 168 10 21 -44 42 58 169 3 43 -44 55 15 167 30 22 -44 33 27 169 43 46 -45 4 10 -0.51
169 6 59 -43 36 0 7 45 36 63 102 -26 168 40 48 -43 29 57 169 33 10 -43 41 57 168 1 32 -43 20 39 170 12 28 -43 50 40 -0.51
169 34 21 -42 22 28 7 45 59 63 105 -26 169 8 38 -42 16 32 170 0 4 -42 28 18 168 30 3 -42 7 26 170 38 39 -42 36 49 -0.51
169 59 19 -41 8 34 7 46 23 63 107 -27 169 34 2 -41 2 44 170 24 35 -41 14 16 168 56 7 -40 53 49 171 2 30 -41 22 38 -0.51
170 22 3 -39 54 15 7 46 46 63 109 -27 169 57 11 -39 48 32 170 46 54 -39 59 52 169 19 54 -39 39 46 171 24 11 -40 8 4 -0.51
170 42 42 -38 39 32 7 47 10 63 111 -27 170 18 14 -38 33 55 171 7 10 -38 45 3 169 41 32 -38 25 17 171 43 50 -38 53 8 -0.50
171 1 25 -37 24 24 7 47 34 63 114 -27 170 37 20 -37 18 52 171 25 30 -37 29 50 170 1 10 -37 10 21 172 1 36 -37 37 48 -0.50
171 18 19 -36 8 49 7 47 57 63 116 -27 170 54 34 -36 3 21 171 42 2 -36 14 11 170 18 57 -35 54 57 172 17 36 -36 22 2 -0.50
171 33 29 -34 52 45 7 48 21 62 118 -27 171 10 5 -34 47 21 171 56 53 -34 58 4 170 34 57 -34 39 2 172 31 56 -35 5 49 -0.50
171 47 3 -33 36 12 7 48 45 62 120 -27 171 23 57 -33 30 50 172 10 7 -33 41 27 170 49 17 -33 22 37 172 44 42 -33 49 8 -0.50
171 59 4 -32 19 6 7 49 8 61 122 -27 171 36 16 -32 13 47 172 21 50 -32 24 18 171 2 2 -32 5 38 172 55 58 -32 31 55 -0.49
172 9 38 -31 1 25 7 49 32 61 124 -27 171 47 6 -30 56 9 172 32 7 -31 6 36 171 13 17 -30 48 3 173 5 50 -31 14 10 -0.49
172 18 48 -29 43 8 7 49 56 60 126 -27 171 56 32 -29 37 54 172 41 2 -29 48 17 171 23 6 -29 29 50 173 14 21 -29 55 49 -0.49
172 26 37 -28 24 12 7 50 19 60 128 -27 172 4 36 -28 18 59 172 48 37 -28 29 20 171 31 32 -28 10 57 173 21 34 -28 36 50 -0.49
172 33 10 -27 4 34 7 50 43 59 130 -27 172 11 22 -26 59 21 172 54 56 -27 9 41 171 38 38 -26 51 20 173 27 32 -27 17 10 -0.49
Uncertainty in time = +/- 8 secs
Prediction of 2016 May 5.0
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