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ASTROMETRIC UPDATE:
OCCULTATION BY (222) LUCIA - 2016 May 14

[Edwin Goffin's Prediction + Finder Charts]

[Detailed Finder Charts]


Updated:   2016 APR 26, 13:45 UT

Event Rank : 47

(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).


THE UPDATED PATH

Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.

Lucia Update Map


On 2016 May 14 UT, the 53 km diameter asteroid (222) Lucia will occult a 11.6 mag star in the constellation Libra for observers along a path beginning near Rockhampton in Queensland. The path moves north-west across Australia, and into WA ends near Derby.

In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 1.56 mag to 12.90 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 5.0 seconds.

This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.

Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/

EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY : Data for the target star : Data for the minor planet : The Occultation Path :
                   Centre              Star  Star   Sun      Path Limits           Error Limits       Alt
  E. Longitude   Latitude      U.T.    Alt    Az   Alt    Limit 1    Limit 2    Limit 3    Limit 4   Crn
      o  '  "     o  '  "    h  m  s     o     o     o    o  '  "    o  '  "    o  '  "    o  '  "
                                                         Latitude   Latitude   Latitude   Latitude
    119  0  0   -14 20 26   13  7 57    55    96   -49  -14  5  5  -14 35 49  -13 15 41  -15 25 23   0.15

    120  0  0   -14 40 23   13  7 48    56    96   -49  -14 25  2  -14 55 45  -13 35 40  -15 45 18   0.15
    121  0  0   -15  0 11   13  7 40    57    95   -50  -14 44 51  -15 15 33  -13 55 30  -16  5  4   0.15
    122  0  0   -15 19 52   13  7 31    58    95   -51  -15  4 32  -15 35 13  -14 15 13  -16 24 43   0.15
    123  0  0   -15 39 24   13  7 22    59    94   -52  -15 24  4  -15 54 44  -14 34 47  -16 44 13   0.15
    124  0  0   -15 58 47   13  7 13    60    93   -53  -15 43 28  -16 14  7  -14 54 13  -17  3 33   0.15

    125  0  0   -16 18  1   13  7  4    61    92   -54  -16  2 43  -16 33 20  -15 13 29  -17 22 45   0.15
    126  0  0   -16 37  6   13  6 55    61    92   -55  -16 21 48  -16 52 24  -15 32 36  -17 41 47   0.15
    127  0  0   -16 56  0   13  6 45    62    91   -56  -16 40 43  -17 11 18  -15 51 34  -18  0 39   0.15
    128  0  0   -17 14 45   13  6 36    63    90   -57  -16 59 28  -17 30  2  -16 10 21  -18 19 21   0.15
    129  0  0   -17 33 19   13  6 27    64    89   -58  -17 18  3  -17 48 36  -16 28 58  -18 37 52   0.16

    130  0  0   -17 51 43   13  6 18    65    88   -59  -17 36 27  -18  6 59  -16 47 24  -18 56 13   0.16
    131  0  0   -18  9 55   13  6  8    66    87   -60  -17 54 40  -18 25 10  -17  5 39  -19 14 22   0.16
    132  0  0   -18 27 56   13  5 59    67    86   -61  -18 12 42  -18 43 11  -17 23 44  -19 32 21   0.16
    133  0  0   -18 45 46   13  5 49    68    85   -62  -18 30 33  -19  1  0  -17 41 36  -19 50  7   0.16
    134  0  0   -19  3 24   13  5 40    69    83   -63  -18 48 11  -19 18 37  -17 59 17  -20  7 42   0.16

    135  0  0   -19 20 50   13  5 30    70    82   -64  -19  5 38  -19 36  2  -18 16 46  -20 25  4   0.16
    136  0  0   -19 38  3   13  5 21    70    81   -65  -19 22 52  -19 53 15  -18 34  3  -20 42 15   0.16
    137  0  0   -19 55  4   13  5 11    71    79   -66  -19 39 54  -20 10 15  -18 51  7  -20 59 12   0.16
    138  0  0   -20 11 52   13  5  2    72    77   -67  -19 56 43  -20 27  2  -19  7 59  -21 15 57   0.16
    139  0  0   -20 28 27   13  4 52    73    75   -67  -20 13 19  -20 43 36  -19 24 37  -21 32 29   0.16

    140  0  0   -20 44 49   13  4 42    74    73   -68  -20 29 41  -20 59 58  -19 41  3  -21 48 47   0.16
    141  0  0   -21  0 58   13  4 33    74    71   -69  -20 45 51  -21 16  5  -19 57 15  -22  4 52   0.16
    142  0  0   -21 16 52   13  4 23    75    69   -70  -21  1 46  -21 31 59  -20 13 13  -22 20 43   0.16
    143  0  0   -21 32 34   13  4 13    76    66   -71  -21 17 28  -21 47 39  -20 28 58  -22 36 21   0.16
    144  0  0   -21 48  1   13  4  4    77    63   -72  -21 32 56  -22  3  6  -20 44 28  -22 51 44   0.16

    145  0  0   -22  3 13   13  3 54    77    60   -73  -21 48 10  -22 18 18  -20 59 45  -23  6 54   0.16
    146  0  0   -22 18 12   13  3 45    78    57   -73  -22  3  9  -22 33 15  -21 14 47  -23 21 48   0.16
    147  0  0   -22 32 56   13  3 35    78    53   -74  -22 17 54  -22 47 58  -21 29 34  -23 36 29   0.16
    148  0  0   -22 47 25   13  3 25    79    49   -75  -22 32 24  -23  2 27  -21 44  7  -23 50 54   0.16
    149  0  0   -23  1 40   13  3 16    79    44   -76  -22 46 39  -23 16 40  -21 58 25  -24  5  5   0.16

    150  0  0   -23 15 39   13  3  6    80    40   -77  -23  0 40  -23 30 39  -22 12 28  -24 19  1   0.16
    151  0  0   -23 29 23   13  2 56    80    34   -77  -23 14 25  -23 44 22  -22 26 16  -24 32 41   0.16
    152  0  0   -23 42 52   13  2 47    80    29   -78  -23 27 55  -23 57 50  -22 39 49  -24 46  7   0.16
    153  0  0   -23 56  6   13  2 37    81    23   -79  -23 41  9  -24 11  3  -22 53  6  -24 59 17   0.16
    154  0  0   -24  9  4   13  2 28    81    17   -80  -23 54  8  -24 24  0  -23  6  8  -25 12 11   0.16

    155  0  0   -24 21 46   13  2 18    81    11   -80  -24  6 51  -24 36 42  -23 18 54  -25 24 50   0.16
    156  0  0   -24 34 13   13  2  9    81     5   -81  -24 19 19  -24 49  7  -23 31 24  -25 37 13   0.16
    157  0  0   -24 46 24   13  1 59    80   359   -81  -24 31 30  -25  1 17  -23 43 38  -25 49 20   0.16

Uncertainty in time = +/- 8 secs

Prediction of 2016 Apr 26.0


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