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Updated: 2016 JAN 06, 17:29 UT
Event Rank : 46
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2016 Feb 25 UT, the 39 km diameter asteroid (1564) Srbija will occult a 9.9 mag star in the constellation Orion for observers along a path beginning near western Tasmania. The path then moves north, passing near Melbourne, Sale, Albury, Wagga Wagga, Dubbo and Gladstone.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 5.9 mag to 15.8 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 5.2 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
143 5 25 -47 0 0 11 27 45 31 341 -19 143 25 42 142 45 10 144 22 49 141 48 47
143 22 5 -46 0 0 11 27 55 32 341 -20 143 42 3 143 2 10 144 38 14 142 6 42
143 39 21 -45 0 0 11 28 6 32 340 -21 143 59 0 143 19 45 144 54 20 142 25 8
143 57 12 -44 0 0 11 28 16 33 340 -22 144 16 35 143 37 53 145 11 6 142 44 4
144 15 38 -43 0 0 11 28 28 34 339 -23 144 34 44 143 56 36 145 28 30 143 3 32
144 34 38 -42 0 0 11 28 39 35 338 -24 144 53 29 144 15 51 145 46 32 143 23 29
144 54 12 -41 0 0 11 28 51 36 338 -24 145 12 48 144 35 38 146 5 12 143 43 56
145 14 19 -40 0 0 11 29 3 37 337 -25 145 32 42 144 55 58 146 24 28 144 4 53
145 34 59 -39 0 0 11 29 15 37 336 -26 145 53 10 145 16 51 146 44 21 144 26 20
145 56 12 -38 0 0 11 29 28 38 335 -27 146 14 11 145 38 15 147 4 51 144 48 17
146 17 58 -37 0 0 11 29 40 39 335 -28 146 35 47 146 0 12 147 25 56 145 10 43
146 40 18 -36 0 0 11 29 54 40 334 -29 146 57 57 146 22 42 147 47 39 145 33 41
147 3 11 -35 0 0 11 30 7 40 333 -30 147 20 41 146 45 45 148 9 58 145 57 9
147 26 39 -34 0 0 11 30 20 41 332 -31 147 44 1 147 9 20 148 32 54 146 21 8
147 50 41 -33 0 0 11 30 34 42 331 -31 148 7 55 147 33 30 148 56 27 146 45 39
148 15 18 -32 0 0 11 30 48 43 330 -32 148 32 25 147 58 14 149 20 38 147 10 43
148 40 31 -31 0 0 11 31 3 43 329 -33 148 57 32 148 23 33 149 45 27 147 36 19
149 6 21 -30 0 0 11 31 17 44 328 -34 149 23 16 148 49 29 150 10 56 148 2 30
149 32 48 -29 0 0 11 31 32 44 327 -35 149 49 38 149 16 0 150 37 5 148 29 16
149 59 53 -28 0 0 11 31 47 45 325 -36 150 16 40 149 43 10 151 3 55 148 56 38
150 27 39 -27 0 0 11 32 2 46 324 -37 150 44 22 150 10 59 151 31 27 149 24 36
150 56 5 -26 0 0 11 32 18 46 323 -38 151 12 45 150 39 28 151 59 43 149 53 14
151 25 13 -25 0 0 11 32 34 47 322 -39 151 41 51 151 8 38 152 28 43 150 22 30
151 55 4 -24 0 0 11 32 50 47 320 -40 152 11 41 151 38 31 152 58 29 150 52 28
152 25 41 -23 0 0 11 33 6 47 319 -41 152 42 17 152 9 9 153 29 4 151 23 9
152 57 5 -22 0 0 11 33 22 48 318 -42 153 13 41 152 40 33 154 0 28 151 54 34
153 29 18 -21 0 0 11 33 39 48 316 -43 153 45 54 153 12 45 154 32 43 152 26 45
154 2 21 -20 0 0 11 33 56 48 315 -44 154 18 59 153 45 47 155 5 52 152 59 44
154 36 18 -19 0 0 11 34 13 49 313 -45 154 52 58 154 19 42 155 39 58 153 33 33
155 11 10 -18 0 0 11 34 30 49 312 -46 155 27 53 154 54 32 156 15 2 154 8 16
Uncertainty in time = +/- 8 secs
Prediction of 2016 Jan 7.0
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