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ASTROMETRIC UPDATE:
OCCULTATION BY (172) BAUCIS - 2016 JAN 31

[Edwin Goffin's Prediction + Finder Charts]

[Detailed Finder Charts]


Updated:   2015 Dec 03, 11:28 UT

Event Rank : 99

(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).


THE UPDATED PATH

Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.

Baucis Update Map


On 2016 Jan 31 UT, the 67 km diameter asteroid (172) Baucis will occult a 11.6 mag star in the constellation Auriga for observers along a path across central Queensland and South Australia, passing over Townsville.

In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 1.5 mag to 12.8 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 7.9 seconds.

This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.

Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/

EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY : Data for the target star : Data for the minor planet : The Occultation Path :
 Occultation of 2UCAC 43599988 by 172 Baucis on 2016 Jan 31 
                  Centre              Star  Star   Sun      Path Limits           Error Limits
  E. Longitude   Latitude      U.T.    Alt    Az   Alt    Limit 1    Limit 2    Limit 3    Limit 4
      o  '  "     o  '  "    h  m  s     o     o     o    o  '  "    o  '  "    o  '  "    o  '  "
                                                        Longitude  Longitude  Longitude  Longitude
    130 54 37   -37  0  0   11 12 40    15    23    -9  130 20 51  131 28 29  130  0 38  131 48 51
    131 45 14   -36  0  0   11 12 35    16    22   -10  131 11 45  132 18 50  130 51 42  132 39  2
    132 35 59   -35  0  0   11 12 29    17    22   -11  132  2 44  133  9 19  131 42 51  133 29 23
    133 26 53   -34  0  0   11 12 24    19    21   -12  132 53 52  134  0  0  132 34  7  134 19 55
    134 18  0   -33  0  0   11 12 17    20    21   -13  133 45 12  134 50 55  133 25 34  135 10 43

    135  9 22   -32  0  0   11 12 11    21    20   -14  134 36 45  135 42  7  134 17 13  136  1 49
    136  1  3   -31  0  0   11 12  3    22    20   -15  135 28 35  136 33 38  135  9  9  136 53 14
    136 53  5   -30  0  0   11 11 56    23    19   -16  136 20 45  137 25 32  136  1 24  137 45  3
    137 45 30   -29  0  0   11 11 48    24    18   -18  137 13 17  138 17 50  136 54  0  138 37 18
    138 38 22   -28  0  0   11 11 40    26    18   -19  138  6 14  139 10 37  137 47  1  139 30  2

    139 31 43   -27  0  0   11 11 31    27    17   -20  138 59 40  140  3 54  138 40 29  140 23 17
    140 25 36   -26  0  0   11 11 22    28    17   -21  139 53 36  140 57 45  139 34 27  141 17  6
    141 20  5   -25  0  0   11 11 12    29    16   -22  140 48  6  141 52 13  140 28 59  142 11 33
    142 15 13   -24  0  0   11 11  2    30    15   -24  141 43 14  142 47 20  141 24  6  143  6 41
    143 11  1   -23  0  0   11 10 52    31    15   -25  142 39  1  143 43 11  142 19 53  144  2 33

    144  7 35   -22  0  0   11 10 41    33    14   -26  143 35 32  144 39 47  143 16 23  144 59 11
    145  4 57   -21  0  0   11 10 29    34    13   -27  144 32 50  145 37 14  144 13 39  145 56 41
    146  3 12   -20  0  0   11 10 18    35    12   -29  145 30 59  146 35 34  145 11 44  146 55  5
    147  2 22   -19  0  0   11 10  5    36    12   -30  146 30  2  147 34 52  146 10 43  147 54 28
    148  2 32   -18  0  0   11  9 52    37    11   -31  147 30  4  148 35 12  147 10 40  148 54 54

Uncertainty in time = +/- 3 secs

Prediction of 2015 Dec  3.0


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