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Updated: 2015 Oct 04, 20:25 UT
Event Rank : 60
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2016 Jan 16 UT, the 185 km diameter asteroid (911) Agamemnon will occult a 11.5 mag star in the constellation Lupus for observers along a very wide, significant uncertainty path across western West Australia, passing over Exmouth, Carnarvon and Esperance.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 4.7 mag to 16.1 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 6.2 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 7835-01285-1 by 911 Agamemnon on 2016 Jan 16
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
108 43 43 -17 42 54 17 54 0 4 129 -49 113 32 24 -20 42 0 ... .. .. .. .. .. 119 25 31 -23 28 5 ... .. .. .. .. ..
112 13 17 -21 19 12 17 54 4 9 128 -44 115 33 44 -23 4 0 106 25 42 -17 30 40 120 45 34 -25 13 38 ... .. .. .. .. ..
114 17 15 -23 44 34 17 54 7 12 127 -41 117 7 41 -25 3 15 110 42 23 -21 47 29 121 55 22 -26 50 37 ... .. .. .. .. ..
115 51 37 -25 45 19 17 54 11 14 126 -39 118 25 51 -26 49 23 112 52 0 -24 18 50 122 57 37 -28 21 19 ... .. .. .. .. ..
117 9 23 -27 32 18 17 54 14 16 126 -37 119 33 23 -28 26 42 114 27 59 -26 22 13 123 53 59 -29 47 7 106 30 55 -21 50 38
118 16 5 -29 10 9 17 54 17 18 125 -35 120 33 6 -29 57 34 115 45 58 -28 10 41 124 45 35 -31 9 0 109 18 28 -24 56 46
119 14 43 -30 41 23 17 54 21 20 124 -33 121 26 45 -31 23 29 116 52 14 -29 49 28 125 33 14 -32 27 39 111 5 41 -27 12 31
120 7 6 -32 7 32 17 54 24 21 123 -31 122 15 28 -32 45 26 117 50 1 -31 21 21 126 17 30 -33 43 34 112 28 3 -29 7 35
120 54 25 -33 29 40 17 54 28 22 122 -30 123 0 6 -34 4 7 118 41 17 -32 47 59 126 58 51 -34 57 10 113 35 41 -30 50 31
121 37 31 -34 48 29 17 54 31 24 122 -28 123 41 13 -35 20 4 119 27 18 -34 10 27 127 37 39 -36 8 45 114 33 12 -32 25 13
122 17 1 -36 4 32 17 54 34 25 121 -27 124 19 16 -36 33 41 120 8 55 -35 29 32 128 14 9 -37 18 35 115 23 8 -33 53 53
122 53 21 -37 18 13 17 54 38 26 120 -26 124 54 37 -37 45 16 120 46 47 -36 45 46 128 48 34 -38 26 51 116 7 4 -35 17 52
123 26 52 -38 29 52 17 54 41 27 120 -24 125 27 32 -38 55 7 121 21 21 -37 59 36 129 21 7 -39 33 45 116 46 3 -36 38 6
Uncertainty in time = +/- 10 secs
Prediction of 2015 Dec 3.0
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