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ASTROMETRIC UPDATE:
OCCULTATION BY (705) ERMINIA - 2015 Sep 29

[Edwin Goffin's Prediction + Finder Charts]

[Detailed Finder Charts]


Updated:   2015 AUG 20, 06:46 UT

Event Rank : 99

(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).


THE UPDATED PATH

Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.

Erminia Update Map


On 2015 Sep 29 UT, the 150 km diameter asteroid (705) Erminia will occult a 10.4 mag star in the constellation Triangulum for observers along a broad path across Australia from Sale across most of Victoria, north-eastern Tasmania, coastal South Australia and southern Western Australia, including Melbourne, Adelaide and Perth, at relatively low elevation (and with a 97% moon only 19 deg. away)

In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.6 mag to 12.9 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 10.8 seconds.

This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: .

Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/

EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY : Data for the target star : Data for the minor planet : The Occultation Path :
                   Centre              Star  Star   Sun      Path Limits           Error Limits
  E. Longitude   Latitude      U.T.    Alt    Az   Alt    Limit 1    Limit 2    Limit 3    Limit 4
      o  '  "     o  '  "    h  m  s     o     o     o    o  '  "    o  '  "    o  '  "    o  '  "
                                                        Longitude  Longitude  Longitude  Longitude
    151 42 53   -42  0  0   14 19 48    20    12   -45  154 42 39  148 26  8  156  4 11  146 43 50
    150 24 15   -41  0  0   14 19 58    21    14   -46  153 27 41  147  2  5  154 50 34  145 16 12
    149  0 12   -40  0  0   14 20  8    21    15   -47  152  8 15  145 31  7  153 32 50  143 40 36
    147 29 58   -39  0  0   14 20 19    22    16   -48  150 43 51  143 52  2  152 10 33  141 55 24
    145 52 33   -38  0  0   14 20 31    23    18   -50  149 13 47  142  3  6  150 43  9  139 58 12

    144  6 36   -37  0  0   14 20 44    23    20   -51  147 37 14  140  1 44  149  9 55  137 45 11
    142 10  8   -36  0  0   14 20 58    24    22   -52  145 53  2  137 43 49  147 29 56  135  9 33
    140  0 12   -35  0  0   14 21 14    24    24   -53  143 59 34  135  1 54  145 41 55  131 56 50
                                                         Latitude   Latitude   Latitude   Latitude
    139  0  0   -34 34 35   14 21 21    24    25   -53  -32 46 28  -36 32  6  -31 57 17  -37 32 43
    138  0  0   -34 10 42   14 21 28    24    26   -53  -32 23 50  -36  6 37  -31 35 10  -37  6 16

    137  0  0   -33 48 14   14 21 36    24    27   -54  -32  2 32  -35 42 41  -31 14 20  -36 41 29
    136  0  0   -33 27 10   14 21 43    24    27   -54  -31 42 31  -35 20 16  -30 54 45  -36 18 17
    135  0  0   -33  7 29   14 21 50    24    28   -54  -31 23 48  -34 59 22  -30 36 26  -35 56 40
    134  0  0   -32 49  9   14 21 56    24    29   -54  -31  6 20  -34 39 55  -30 19 20  -35 36 34
    133  0  0   -32 32  9   14 22  3    23    30   -54  -30 50  8  -34 21 55  -30  3 28  -35 17 59

    132  0  0   -32 16 28   14 22 10    23    31   -54  -30 35 11  -34  5 19  -29 48 49  -35  0 52
    131  0  0   -32  2  5   14 22 17    23    32   -54  -30 21 28  -33 50  7  -29 35 22  -34 45 12
    130  0  0   -31 49  0   14 22 23    23    33   -54  -30  8 58  -33 36 19  -29 23  7  -34 30 58
    129  0  0   -31 37 11   14 22 30    22    34   -54  -29 57 40  -33 23 52  -29 12  2  -34 18  9
    128  0  0   -31 26 39   14 22 36    22    34   -54  -29 47 36  -33 12 46  -29  2  9  -34  6 44

    127  0  0   -31 17 23   14 22 42    22    35   -53  -29 38 43  -33  3  0  -28 53 26  -33 56 42
    126  0  0   -31  9 21   14 22 49    21    36   -53  -29 31  2  -32 54 35  -28 45 53  -33 48  2
    125  0  0   -31  2 35   14 22 55    21    37   -53  -29 24 32  -32 47 28  -28 39 30  -33 40 44
    124  0  0   -30 57  4   14 23  1    21    38   -53  -29 19 14  -32 41 41  -28 34 17  -33 34 48
    123  0  0   -30 52 47   14 23  6    20    38   -52  -29 15  6  -32 37 13  -28 30 14  -33 30 13

    122  0  0   -30 49 45   14 23 12    20    39   -52  -29 12 10  -32 34  3  -28 27 21  -33 26 59
    121  0  0   -30 47 57   14 23 18    19    40   -51  -29 10 25  -32 32 12  -28 25 37  -33 25  6
    120  0  0   -30 47 24   14 23 23    19    41   -51  -29  9 51  -32 31 39  -28 25  2  -33 24 33
    119  0  0   -30 48  5   14 23 28    18    41   -50  -29 10 28  -32 32 25  -28 25 38  -33 25 22
    118  0  0   -30 50  1   14 23 33    17    42   -50  -29 12 17  -32 34 30  -28 27 23  -33 27 32

    117  0  0   -30 53 12   14 23 38    17    43   -49  -29 15 17  -32 37 54  -28 30 19  -33 31  4
    116  0  0   -30 57 38   14 23 43    16    43   -49  -29 19 29  -32 42 38  -28 34 25  -33 35 58
    115  0  0   -31  3 21   14 23 48    16    44   -48  -29 24 53  -32 48 42  -28 39 42  -33 42 14
    114  0  0   -31 10 19   14 23 52    15    45   -47  -29 31 30  -32 56  7  -28 46  9  -33 49 54
    113  0  0   -31 18 34   14 23 56    14    45   -47  -29 39 20  -33  4 53  -28 53 49  -33 58 57

    112  0  0   -31 28  6   14 24  0    14    46   -46  -29 48 23  -33 15  1  -29  2 40  -34  9 26

Uncertainty in time = +/- 3 secs

Prediction of 2015 Aug 20.0

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