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Updated: 2015 AUG 20, 06:27 UT
Event Rank : 93
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2015 Sep 18 UT, the 207 km diameter asteroid (372) Palma will occult a 12.2 mag star in the constellation Corona Australis for observers along a path across New Guinea, from Bogia to Buji, and across northern Australia down the west coast of Cape Yorkand into south-eastern Northern Territory in evening twilight.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.0 mag to 14.0 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 15.2 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
147 41 3 3 0 0 9 19 57 47 189 -19 148 41 57 146 39 58 149 40 14 145 41 5
147 17 50 2 0 0 9 19 50 48 189 -19 148 18 46 146 16 42 149 17 5 145 17 47
146 54 24 1 0 0 9 19 44 49 189 -18 147 55 23 145 53 12 148 53 44 144 54 13
146 30 44 0 0 0 9 19 37 50 189 -18 147 31 48 145 29 26 148 30 13 144 30 21
146 6 48 - 1 0 0 9 19 30 51 188 -17 147 7 58 145 5 24 148 6 29 144 6 12
145 42 36 - 2 0 0 9 19 23 52 188 -17 146 43 53 144 41 3 147 42 31 143 41 43
145 18 6 - 3 0 0 9 19 15 53 187 -17 146 19 33 144 16 24 147 18 18 143 16 54
144 53 18 - 4 0 0 9 19 8 54 187 -16 145 54 55 143 51 24 146 53 50 142 51 43
144 28 9 - 5 0 0 9 19 1 55 187 -16 145 29 58 143 26 3 146 29 4 142 26 8
144 2 38 - 6 0 0 9 18 53 56 186 -15 145 4 41 143 0 18 146 3 59 142 0 9
143 36 45 - 7 0 0 9 18 45 57 186 -15 144 39 3 142 34 9 145 38 35 141 33 44
143 10 28 - 8 0 0 9 18 38 58 185 -14 144 13 2 142 7 34 145 12 50 141 6 51
142 43 45 - 9 0 0 9 18 30 59 185 -14 143 46 37 141 40 31 144 46 42 140 39 29
142 16 34 -10 0 0 9 18 22 60 184 -13 143 19 47 141 13 0 144 20 10 140 11 36
141 48 54 -11 0 0 9 18 14 61 183 -13 142 52 29 140 44 57 143 53 12 139 43 11
141 20 43 -12 0 0 9 18 6 62 183 -12 142 24 42 140 16 21 143 25 47 139 14 11
140 52 0 -13 0 0 9 17 57 63 182 -12 141 56 24 139 47 11 142 57 53 138 44 34
140 22 42 -14 0 0 9 17 49 64 181 -11 141 27 34 139 17 24 142 29 28 138 14 18
139 52 47 -15 0 0 9 17 40 65 180 -11 140 58 9 138 46 58 142 0 30 137 43 21
139 22 13 -16 0 0 9 17 32 66 179 -10 140 28 7 138 15 51 141 30 58 137 11 40
Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude
138 0 0 -18 34 57 9 17 9 69 176 -9 -20 37 42 -16 30 3 -22 33 45 -14 27 53
137 0 0 -20 22 13 9 16 53 70 173 -8 -22 21 49 -18 20 36 -24 14 56 -16 21 46
136 0 0 -22 4 43 9 16 37 72 169 -7 -24 1 17 -20 6 17 -25 51 35 -18 10 38
135 0 0 -23 42 38 9 16 22 73 166 -6 -25 36 16 -21 47 15 -27 23 52 -19 54 38
134 0 0 -25 16 6 9 16 8 75 161 -5 -27 6 56 -23 23 38 -28 51 56 -21 33 57
133 0 0 -26 45 19 9 15 53 76 156 -4 -28 33 27 -24 55 39 -30 15 58 -23 8 45
132 0 0 -28 10 27 9 15 40 76 151 -3 -29 56 1 -26 23 27 -31 36 8 -24 39 13
131 0 0 -29 31 41 9 15 26 77 145 -2 -31 14 47 -27 47 13 -32 52 37 -26 5 32
130 0 0 -30 49 11 9 15 13 77 139 -1 -32 29 57 -29 7 9 -34 5 36 -27 27 53
129 0 0 -32 3 8 9 15 1 78 132 0 -33 41 39 -30 23 25 -35 15 13 -28 46 28
Uncertainty in time = +/- 7 secs
Prediction of 2015 Aug 20.0
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