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Updated: 2015 JUL 17, 17:03 UT
Event Rank : 99
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2015 Aug 02 UT, the 101 km diameter asteroid (191) Kolga will occult a 10.6 mag star in the constellation Ophiuchus for observers along a north-to-south path across Australia, passing over Alice Springs, Adelaide and Mount Gambier.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 3.6 mag to 14.2 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 17.1 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: .
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
135 13 46 - 6 19 34 14 45 11 38 264 -78 135 58 36 - 6 19 41 134 29 41 - 6 19 19 136 29 31 - 6 19 40 134 0 7 - 6 19 4
134 59 44 - 7 15 17 14 45 28 38 265 -78 135 44 29 - 7 15 25 134 15 43 - 7 15 0 136 15 21 - 7 15 26 133 46 11 - 7 14 44
134 46 50 - 8 10 53 14 45 46 38 265 -79 135 31 33 - 8 11 3 134 2 51 - 8 10 35 136 2 23 - 8 11 4 133 33 20 - 8 10 18
134 35 5 - 9 6 23 14 46 3 38 266 -80 135 19 47 - 9 6 34 133 51 6 - 9 6 3 135 50 36 - 9 6 37 133 21 35 - 9 5 45
134 24 27 -10 1 48 14 46 20 38 267 -80 135 9 10 -10 2 0 133 40 27 -10 1 27 135 40 0 -10 2 4 133 10 55 -10 1 9
134 14 56 -10 57 9 14 46 38 39 268 -81 134 59 42 -10 57 22 133 30 52 -10 56 47 135 30 34 -10 57 26 133 1 18 -10 56 28
134 6 32 -11 52 27 14 46 55 39 268 -82 134 51 23 -11 52 41 133 22 23 -11 52 4 135 22 18 -11 52 45 132 52 45 -11 51 45
133 59 14 -12 47 42 14 47 12 39 269 -82 134 44 12 -12 47 57 133 14 58 -12 47 19 135 15 12 -12 48 2 132 45 15 -12 46 59
133 53 3 -13 42 57 14 47 29 39 270 -83 134 38 10 -13 43 11 133 8 38 -13 42 33 135 9 16 -13 43 17 132 38 50 -13 42 13
133 47 59 -14 38 10 14 47 47 39 271 -83 134 33 17 -14 38 25 133 3 24 -14 37 47 135 4 30 -14 38 31 132 33 29 -14 37 27
133 44 4 -15 33 25 14 48 4 39 271 -84 134 29 34 -15 33 40 132 59 17 -15 33 2 135 0 56 -15 33 45 132 29 13 -15 32 41
133 41 18 -16 28 40 14 48 21 39 272 -84 134 27 2 -16 28 55 132 56 16 -16 28 18 134 58 34 -16 29 0 132 26 3 -16 27 57
133 39 42 -17 23 58 14 48 39 39 273 -84 134 25 43 -17 24 12 132 54 24 -17 23 36 134 57 26 -17 24 17 132 24 0 -17 23 16
133 39 18 -18 19 19 14 48 56 38 273 -84 134 25 37 -18 19 32 132 53 42 -18 18 57 134 57 34 -18 19 36 132 23 6 -18 18 37
133 40 8 -19 14 43 14 49 13 38 274 -84 134 26 48 -19 14 55 132 54 12 -19 14 22 134 58 59 -19 14 58 132 23 23 -19 14 3
133 42 13 -20 10 12 14 49 30 38 275 -84 134 29 17 -20 10 23 132 55 56 -20 9 52 135 1 44 -20 10 25 132 24 51 -20 9 34
133 45 38 -21 5 46 14 49 48 38 275 -84 134 33 6 -21 5 55 132 58 55 -21 5 27 135 5 51 -21 5 56 132 27 35 -21 5 10
133 50 23 -22 1 26 14 50 5 38 276 -83 134 38 19 -22 1 33 133 3 14 -22 1 9 135 11 23 -22 1 33 132 31 35 -22 0 53
133 56 33 -22 57 12 14 50 22 37 277 -83 134 44 59 -22 57 18 133 8 54 -22 56 58 135 18 25 -22 57 16 132 36 57 -22 56 43
134 4 10 -23 53 7 14 50 40 37 277 -82 134 53 10 -23 53 10 133 16 0 -23 52 54 135 26 59 -23 53 6 132 43 41 -23 52 40
134 13 21 -24 49 9 14 50 57 37 278 -82 135 2 57 -24 49 10 133 24 35 -24 48 59 135 37 11 -24 49 4 132 51 54 -24 48 47
134 24 8 -25 45 21 14 51 14 36 278 -81 135 14 23 -25 45 18 133 34 44 -25 45 14 135 49 5 -25 45 10 133 1 38 -25 45 3
134 36 37 -26 41 42 14 51 31 36 279 -80 135 27 35 -26 41 36 133 46 32 -26 41 38 136 2 47 -26 41 25 133 12 59 -26 41 30
134 50 54 -27 38 14 14 51 49 36 279 -79 135 42 39 -27 38 3 134 0 5 -27 38 14 136 18 24 -27 37 50 133 26 2 -27 38 8
135 7 6 -28 34 56 14 52 6 35 280 -79 135 59 41 -28 34 42 134 15 28 -28 35 0 136 36 2 -28 34 25 133 40 53 -28 34 57
135 25 20 -29 31 51 14 52 23 35 280 -78 136 18 51 -29 31 31 134 32 50 -29 31 59 136 55 51 -29 31 10 133 57 40 -29 31 59
135 45 45 -30 28 57 14 52 41 34 281 -77 136 40 16 -30 28 31 134 52 17 -30 29 11 137 17 58 -30 28 7 134 16 30 -30 29 14
136 8 30 -31 26 16 14 52 58 34 281 -76 137 4 7 -31 25 44 135 14 0 -31 26 36 137 42 36 -31 25 15 134 37 32 -31 26 42
136 33 47 -32 23 48 14 53 15 33 281 -75 137 30 36 -32 23 9 135 38 9 -32 24 14 138 9 56 -32 22 34 135 0 56 -32 24 25
137 1 48 -33 21 33 14 53 32 32 282 -74 137 59 55 -33 20 46 136 4 55 -33 22 7 138 40 11 -33 20 6 135 26 53 -33 22 23
137 32 47 -34 19 32 14 53 50 32 282 -73 138 32 21 -34 18 36 136 34 32 -34 20 15 139 13 38 -34 17 49 135 55 37 -34 20 35
138 7 1 -35 17 45 14 54 7 31 282 -72 139 8 10 -35 16 38 137 7 15 -35 18 37 139 50 36 -35 15 44 136 27 21 -35 19 3
138 44 48 -36 16 11 14 54 24 30 282 -71 139 47 43 -36 14 52 137 43 23 -36 17 13 140 31 24 -36 13 49 137 2 25 -36 17 47
139 26 31 -37 14 50 14 54 42 29 282 -70 140 31 23 -37 13 18 138 23 16 -37 16 5 141 16 30 -37 12 5 137 41 6 -37 16 46
140 12 36 -38 13 41 14 54 59 29 282 -69 141 19 40 -38 11 53 139 7 18 -38 15 10 142 6 21 -38 10 29 138 23 49 -38 16 0
141 3 34 -39 12 43 14 55 16 28 282 -68 142 13 5 -39 10 37 139 55 57 -39 14 28 143 1 33 -39 8 59 139 11 0 -39 15 28
142 0 0 -40 11 53 14 55 33 27 282 -67 143 12 19 -40 9 27 140 49 48 -40 13 57 144 2 49 -40 7 34 140 3 11 -40 15 9
143 2 39 -41 11 10 14 55 51 26 281 -66 144 18 10 -41 8 19 141 49 31 -41 13 35 145 11 1 -41 6 7 141 1 1 -41 15 1
144 12 25 -42 10 28 14 56 8 25 281 -65 145 31 38 -42 7 9 142 55 53 -42 13 20 146 27 13 -42 4 35 142 5 15 -42 15 1
145 30 25 -43 9 43 14 56 25 23 280 -64 146 53 58 -43 5 48 144 9 57 -43 13 5 147 52 46 -43 2 48 143 16 49 -43 15 6
146 58 2 -44 8 46 14 56 43 22 280 -62 148 26 47 -44 4 8 145 32 56 -44 12 45 149 29 29 -44 0 35 144 36 55 -44 15 9
148 37 9 -45 7 25 14 57 0 21 279 -61 150 12 12 -45 1 54 147 6 28 -45 12 11 151 19 43 -44 57 39 146 6 59 -45 15 2
150 30 12 -46 5 23 14 57 17 19 278 -60 152 13 11 -45 58 43 148 52 39 -46 11 7 153 26 52 -45 53 34 147 48 59 -46 14 34
152 40 39 -47 2 14 14 57 34 18 276 -58 154 33 59 -46 54 2 150 54 21 -47 9 15 155 55 59 -46 47 38 149 45 27 -47 13 26
155 13 39 -47 57 17 14 57 52 16 274 -56 157 21 23 -47 46 54 153 15 43 -48 6 1 158 55 25 -47 38 40 152 0 1 -48 11 13
Uncertainty in time = +/- 6 secs
Prediction of 2015 Jul 18.0
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