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Updated: 2015 APR 06, 11:04 UT
Event Rank : 99
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2015 May 14 UT, the 357 km diameter asteroid (704) Interamnia will occult a 9.4 mag star in the constellation Hydra for observers along a path passing near the west coast of Western Australia including Perth.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.5 mag to 11.7 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 30.6 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, TMO astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
115 17 34 -41 21 46 11 18 4 62 69 -24 112 54 42 -41 47 18 117 36 13 -40 54 4 111 50 27 -41 57 48 118 35 57 -40 41 14
114 52 37 -40 4 30 11 18 16 62 71 -23 112 32 26 -40 29 36 117 8 45 -39 37 16 111 29 25 -40 39 56 118 7 25 -39 24 39
114 27 17 -38 47 28 11 18 29 62 74 -23 112 9 36 -39 12 9 116 41 5 -38 20 41 111 7 43 -39 22 18 117 38 47 -38 8 17
114 1 35 -37 30 38 11 18 41 62 77 -23 111 46 12 -37 54 53 116 13 13 -37 4 17 110 45 23 -38 4 52 117 10 0 -36 52 4
113 35 29 -36 13 55 11 18 54 62 79 -22 111 22 14 -36 37 47 115 45 6 -35 48 1 110 22 25 -36 47 35 116 41 2 -35 36 0
113 8 58 -34 57 19 11 19 6 62 82 -22 110 57 42 -35 20 46 115 16 43 -34 31 49 109 58 47 -35 30 24 116 11 52 -34 20 0
112 42 1 -33 40 45 11 19 19 62 85 -21 110 32 36 -34 3 48 114 48 2 -33 15 40 109 34 31 -34 13 16 115 42 27 -33 4 2
112 14 37 -32 24 11 11 19 31 61 87 -21 110 6 53 -32 46 51 114 19 1 -31 59 31 109 9 35 -32 56 9 115 12 45 -31 48 4
111 46 43 -31 7 35 11 19 44 61 90 -20 109 40 34 -31 29 51 113 49 38 -30 43 20 108 43 59 -31 38 59 114 42 44 -30 32 3
111 18 20 -29 50 54 11 19 56 61 92 -19 109 13 37 -30 12 46 113 19 51 -29 27 3 108 17 42 -30 21 44 114 12 23 -29 15 57
110 49 23 -28 34 5 11 20 9 60 95 -19 108 46 1 -28 55 34 112 49 39 -28 10 37 107 50 41 -29 4 21 113 41 38 -27 59 42
110 19 53 -27 17 5 11 20 21 60 97 -18 108 17 43 -27 38 10 112 18 58 -26 54 1 107 22 57 -27 46 47 113 10 27 -26 43 17
109 49 45 -25 59 51 11 20 34 59 99 -17 107 48 43 -26 20 32 111 47 47 -25 37 11 106 54 26 -26 28 59 112 38 49 -25 26 37
109 18 59 -24 42 21 11 20 46 59 101 -17 107 18 56 -25 2 38 111 16 3 -24 20 5 106 25 7 -25 10 54 112 6 39 -24 9 41
108 47 31 -23 24 30 11 20 59 58 104 -16 106 48 22 -23 44 23 110 43 42 -23 2 38 105 54 57 -23 52 28 111 33 56 -22 52 25
108 15 18 -22 6 17 11 21 11 57 106 -15 106 16 57 -22 25 44 110 10 43 -21 44 49 105 23 54 -22 33 38 111 0 37 -21 34 47
107 42 18 -20 47 37 11 21 24 56 107 -15 105 44 39 -21 6 38 109 37 1 -20 26 34 104 51 53 -21 14 20 110 26 37 -20 16 42
107 8 25 -19 28 26 11 21 36 55 109 -14 105 11 22 -19 47 2 109 2 33 -19 7 49 104 18 52 -19 54 31 109 51 54 -18 58 8
106 33 37 -18 8 42 11 21 49 54 111 -13 104 37 3 -18 26 50 108 27 16 -17 48 30 103 44 47 -18 34 7 109 16 23 -17 39 0
105 57 50 -16 48 19 11 22 1 54 112 -12 104 1 39 -17 5 58 107 51 4 -16 28 34 103 9 31 -17 13 2 108 40 1 -16 19 15
Uncertainty in time = +/- 7 secs
Prediction of 2015 Apr 6.0
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