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Updated: 2014 Dec 05, 10:56 UT
Event Rank : 100
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2015 Jan 27 UT, the 197 km diameter asteroid (6) Hebe will occult a 10.6 mag star in the constellation Taurus for observers along a wide path across south-eastern West Australia, central Australia and northern Queensland.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by only 0.3 mag to 9.5 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 13.1 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 0064-01372-1 by 6 Hebe on 2015 Jan 27
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
119 34 49 -37 0 0 14 56 32 25 294 -32 122 30 6 116 53 6 123 22 11 116 9 49
120 4 0 -36 0 0 14 56 40 25 293 -33 122 59 48 117 22 7 123 52 7 116 38 49
120 35 52 -35 0 0 14 56 48 25 292 -34 123 32 35 117 53 29 124 25 17 117 10 7
121 10 29 -34 0 0 14 56 57 25 292 -35 124 8 35 118 27 17 125 1 48 117 43 45
121 47 58 -33 0 0 14 57 5 25 291 -36 124 47 56 119 3 34 125 41 51 118 19 47
122 28 27 -32 0 0 14 57 13 24 290 -37 125 30 49 119 42 28 126 25 39 118 58 20
123 12 5 -31 0 0 14 57 22 24 289 -38 126 17 31 120 24 4 127 13 29 119 39 29
123 59 5 -30 0 0 14 57 31 24 288 -40 127 8 20 121 8 32 128 5 43 120 23 24
124 49 43 -29 0 0 14 57 39 23 287 -41 128 3 40 121 56 3 129 2 49 121 10 14
125 44 19 -28 0 0 14 57 48 23 286 -42 129 4 4 122 46 51 130 5 25 122 0 11
126 43 17 -27 0 0 14 57 57 22 285 -43 130 10 13 123 41 12 131 14 21 122 53 32
127 47 11 -26 0 0 14 58 6 22 284 -44 131 23 4 124 39 27 132 30 47 123 50 34
128 56 41 -25 0 0 14 58 16 21 283 -46 132 43 58 125 42 3 133 56 23 124 51 42
130 12 43 -24 0 0 14 58 25 20 282 -47 134 14 52 126 49 33 135 33 44 125 57 23
131 36 36 -23 0 0 14 58 35 19 281 -48 135 58 49 128 2 39 137 27 7 127 8 18
133 10 11 -22 0 0 14 58 44 17 280 -49 138 1 11 129 22 20 139 44 49 128 25 13
134 56 24 -21 0 0 14 58 54 16 279 -51 140 33 2 130 49 54 142 47 34 129 49 18
137 0 8 -20 0 0 14 59 4 14 278 -52 144 7 9 132 27 17 148 54 11 131 22 5
138 0 0 -19 34 32 14 59 8 13 277 -52 -22 0 32 -17 21 50 -22 44 27 -16 46 35
139 0 0 -19 11 15 14 59 12 12 277 -52 -21 34 56 -17 0 16 -22 18 4 -16 25 26
140 0 0 -18 50 6 14 59 16 11 277 -53 -21 11 46 -16 40 40 -21 54 11 -16 6 12
141 0 0 -18 31 2 14 59 20 11 276 -53 -20 50 54 -16 22 59 -21 32 43 -15 48 51
142 0 0 -18 14 1 14 59 23 10 276 -53 -20 32 18 -16 7 11 -21 13 34 -15 33 20
143 0 0 -17 58 58 14 59 25 9 275 -53 -20 15 52 -15 53 12 -20 56 41 -15 19 37
144 0 0 -17 45 52 14 59 28 8 275 -53 -20 1 34 -15 41 2 -20 41 58 -15 7 41
145 0 0 -17 34 40 14 59 30 7 275 -53 -19 49 20 -15 30 38 -20 29 24 -14 57 28
146 0 0 -17 25 20 14 59 32 6 274 -53 -19 39 9 -15 21 58 -20 18 55 -14 48 59
147 0 0 -17 17 51 14 59 33 5 274 -53 -19 30 57 -15 15 3 -20 10 29 -14 42 11
148 0 0 -17 12 11 14 59 35 4 274 -53 -19 24 43 -15 9 49 -20 4 4 -14 37 4
149 0 0 -17 8 19 14 59 36 3 274 -53 -19 20 27 -15 6 17 -19 59 39 .. .. ..
Uncertainty in time = +/- 2 secs
Prediction of 2014 Dec 5.0
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