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Updated: 2014 Nov 12, 13:02 UT
Event Rank : 40
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2015 Jan 09 UT, the 146 km diameter asteroid (1867) Deiphobus will occult a 12.5 mag star in the constellation Perseus for observers along a path across northern Australia and eastern and southern West Australia.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 3.3 mag to 15.7 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 9.6 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, TMO astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of 2UCAC 44794069 by 1867 Deiphobus on 2015 Jan 9
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
121 16 36 -37 0 0 12 59 24 16 360 -17 120 12 13 122 21 37 116 41 6 126 3 44
121 33 59 -36 0 0 12 59 21 17 359 -18 120 30 14 122 38 20 117 1 17 126 18 13
121 52 2 -35 0 0 12 59 19 18 359 -19 120 48 53 122 55 46 117 21 56 126 33 34
122 10 45 -34 0 0 12 59 16 19 359 -20 121 8 10 123 13 55 117 43 6 126 49 47
122 30 8 -33 0 0 12 59 13 20 359 -21 121 28 5 123 32 46 118 4 45 127 6 51
122 50 10 -32 0 0 12 59 9 21 358 -21 121 48 37 123 52 19 118 26 54 127 24 45
123 10 52 -31 0 0 12 59 6 22 358 -22 122 9 46 124 12 35 118 49 33 127 43 29
123 32 14 -30 0 0 12 59 2 23 358 -23 122 31 32 124 33 32 119 12 43 128 3 4
123 54 16 -29 0 0 12 58 58 24 358 -24 122 53 57 124 55 11 119 36 23 128 23 28
124 16 57 -28 0 0 12 58 54 25 357 -25 123 16 59 125 17 32 120 0 34 128 44 41
124 40 19 -27 0 0 12 58 50 26 357 -26 123 40 39 125 40 36 120 25 18 129 6 45
125 4 22 -26 0 0 12 58 46 27 356 -27 124 4 58 126 4 22 120 50 33 129 29 38
125 29 6 -25 0 0 12 58 42 28 356 -28 124 29 56 126 28 51 121 16 22 129 53 22
125 54 31 -24 0 0 12 58 37 29 356 -29 124 55 34 126 54 5 121 42 43 130 17 57
126 20 39 -23 0 0 12 58 32 30 355 -30 125 21 53 127 20 2 122 9 40 130 43 24
126 47 30 -22 0 0 12 58 27 31 355 -31 125 48 52 127 46 45 122 37 11 131 9 43
127 15 5 -21 0 0 12 58 22 32 354 -32 126 16 34 128 14 14 123 5 18 131 36 55
127 43 25 -20 0 0 12 58 17 33 354 -33 126 44 58 128 42 29 123 34 2 132 5 1
128 12 30 -19 0 0 12 58 11 34 353 -34 127 14 7 129 11 33 124 3 23 132 34 2
128 42 23 -18 0 0 12 58 6 34 353 -35 127 44 1 129 41 26 124 33 24 133 4 0
129 13 5 -17 0 0 12 58 0 35 352 -36 128 14 41 130 12 9 125 4 5 133 34 57
129 44 36 -16 0 0 12 57 54 36 352 -37 128 46 9 130 43 45 125 35 27 134 6 53
130 16 58 -15 0 0 12 57 48 37 351 -38 129 18 26 131 16 13 126 7 32 134 39 50
130 50 14 -14 0 0 12 57 42 38 350 -39 129 51 34 131 49 37 126 40 21 135 13 51
131 24 24 -13 0 0 12 57 35 39 350 -40 130 25 34 132 23 59 127 13 56 135 48 58
131 59 31 -12 0 0 12 57 29 40 349 -41 131 0 29 132 59 19 127 48 19 136 25 13
132 35 37 -11 0 0 12 57 22 41 348 -42 131 36 21 133 35 41 128 23 31 137 2 38
133 12 45 -10 0 0 12 57 15 42 348 -44 132 13 11 134 13 7 128 59 34 137 41 18
Uncertainty in time = +/- 21 secs
Prediction of 2014 Nov 12.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
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