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Updated: 2014 OCT 27, 10:07 UT
Event Rank : 76
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2014 Nov 20 UT, the 68 km diameter asteroid (205) Martha will occult a 11.2 mag star in the constellation Canis Minor for observers along a north-to-south path across eastern Australia, passing near Gladstone, Narrabri, Bathurst, Canberra, Lakes Entrance, Launceston and Hobart.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.9 mag to 14.0 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 11.5 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, TMO astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
144 29 31 -49 0 0 16 44 4 30 26 -13 143 59 20 144 59 37 143 14 26 145 43 57
144 56 29 -48 0 0 16 43 54 31 26 -14 144 26 58 145 25 54 143 43 5 146 9 15
145 22 1 -47 0 0 16 43 43 32 25 -14 144 53 8 145 50 49 144 10 13 146 33 15
145 46 15 -46 0 0 16 43 33 33 25 -15 145 17 58 146 14 27 144 35 56 146 56 1
146 9 16 -45 0 0 16 43 21 34 25 -16 145 41 33 146 36 55 145 0 21 147 17 40
146 31 9 -44 0 0 16 43 10 35 25 -16 146 3 58 146 58 16 145 23 34 147 38 15
146 51 59 -43 0 0 16 42 58 36 25 -17 146 25 17 147 18 36 145 45 38 147 57 51
147 11 49 -42 0 0 16 42 46 37 25 -17 146 45 36 147 37 58 146 6 39 148 16 33
147 30 44 -41 0 0 16 42 34 38 25 -18 147 4 58 147 56 27 146 26 41 148 34 22
147 48 47 -40 0 0 16 42 22 39 25 -19 147 23 26 148 14 5 146 45 47 148 51 23
148 6 1 -39 0 0 16 42 9 40 25 -19 147 41 4 148 30 55 147 4 0 149 7 39
148 22 29 -38 0 0 16 41 56 41 25 -20 147 57 55 148 47 1 147 21 25 149 23 11
148 38 14 -37 0 0 16 41 43 42 25 -21 148 14 0 149 2 24 147 38 3 149 38 3
148 53 17 -36 0 0 16 41 30 43 25 -21 148 29 24 149 17 7 147 53 57 149 52 17
149 7 42 -35 0 0 16 41 16 44 26 -22 148 44 8 149 31 13 148 9 10 150 5 55
149 21 30 -34 0 0 16 41 2 45 26 -22 148 58 14 149 44 42 148 23 43 150 18 58
149 34 42 -33 0 0 16 40 48 46 26 -23 149 11 44 149 57 38 148 37 38 150 31 28
149 47 22 -32 0 0 16 40 34 47 26 -24 149 24 40 150 10 1 148 50 59 150 43 27
149 59 29 -31 0 0 16 40 20 48 27 -24 149 37 3 150 21 53 149 3 45 150 54 56
150 11 6 -30 0 0 16 40 5 49 27 -25 149 48 54 150 33 15 149 15 58 151 5 57
150 22 14 -29 0 0 16 39 50 49 27 -25 150 0 16 150 44 9 149 27 41 151 16 30
150 32 54 -28 0 0 16 39 35 50 28 -26 150 11 9 150 54 36 149 38 54 151 26 38
150 43 7 -27 0 0 16 39 20 51 28 -27 150 21 35 151 4 36 149 49 38 151 36 20
150 52 54 -26 0 0 16 39 4 52 28 -27 150 31 34 151 14 12 149 59 55 151 45 38
151 2 17 -25 0 0 16 38 49 53 29 -28 150 41 8 151 23 23 150 9 46 151 54 33
151 11 15 -24 0 0 16 38 33 54 30 -29 150 50 17 151 32 11 150 19 10 152 3 6
151 19 50 -23 0 0 16 38 17 55 30 -29 150 59 2 151 40 36 150 28 10 152 11 16
151 28 3 -22 0 0 16 38 1 56 31 -30 151 7 24 151 48 39 150 36 46 152 19 5
151 35 53 -21 0 0 16 37 44 57 31 -30 151 15 23 151 56 21 150 44 59 152 26 34
151 43 23 -20 0 0 16 37 28 58 32 -31 151 23 1 152 3 42 150 52 49 152 33 43
151 50 31 -19 0 0 16 37 11 58 33 -32 151 30 17 152 10 43 151 0 17 152 40 32
151 57 19 -18 0 0 16 36 55 59 34 -32 151 37 13 152 17 23 151 7 23 152 47 2
152 3 47 -17 0 0 16 36 38 60 35 -33 151 43 48 152 23 45 151 14 8 152 53 13
152 9 56 -16 0 0 16 36 20 61 36 -33 151 50 3 152 29 47 151 20 33 152 59 6
152 15 45 -15 0 0 16 36 3 62 37 -34 151 55 58 152 35 31 151 26 37 153 4 41
Uncertainty in time = +/- 9 secs
Prediction of 2014 Oct 27.0
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