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Updated: 2014 Jun 22, 08:43 UT
Event Rank : 35
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2014 Jul 11 UT, the 18 km diameter asteroid (391) Ingeborg will occult a 11.1 mag star in the constellation Cygnus for observers along a path across eastern South Australia and western Queensland.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.4 mag to 13.4 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 2.3 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 2198-00343-1 by 391 Ingeborg on 2014 Jul 11
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
138 29 50 -45 0 0 15 54 48 14 12 -64 138 36 56 138 22 43 139 3 53 137 55 41
138 42 10 -44 0 0 15 54 51 15 12 -64 138 49 9 138 35 11 139 15 37 138 8 38
138 53 44 -43 0 0 15 54 55 16 12 -65 139 0 35 138 46 52 139 26 36 138 20 46
139 4 33 -42 0 0 15 54 59 17 11 -66 139 11 17 138 57 48 139 36 53 138 32 8
139 14 40 -41 0 0 15 55 4 18 11 -66 139 21 18 139 8 2 139 46 29 138 42 47
139 24 8 -40 0 0 15 55 8 19 11 -67 139 30 40 139 17 36 139 55 28 138 52 44
139 32 58 -39 0 0 15 55 13 20 11 -68 139 39 24 139 26 32 140 3 50 139 2 2
139 41 13 -38 0 0 15 55 18 21 11 -68 139 47 33 139 34 52 140 11 38 139 10 43
139 48 53 -37 0 0 15 55 23 22 11 -69 139 55 9 139 42 38 140 18 54 139 18 49
139 56 2 -36 0 0 15 55 28 23 11 -69 140 2 12 139 49 51 140 25 38 139 26 21
140 2 39 -35 0 0 15 55 34 24 11 -70 140 8 45 139 56 33 140 31 53 139 33 22
140 8 47 -34 0 0 15 55 40 25 11 -70 140 14 48 140 2 45 140 37 39 139 39 51
140 14 26 -33 0 0 15 55 46 26 11 -71 140 20 23 140 8 29 140 42 58 139 45 51
140 19 39 -32 0 0 15 55 52 27 11 -71 140 25 32 140 13 46 140 47 51 139 51 23
140 24 25 -31 0 0 15 55 59 28 11 -72 140 30 14 140 18 36 140 52 19 139 56 28
140 28 47 -30 0 0 15 56 6 29 11 -72 140 34 32 140 23 1 140 56 23 140 1 7
140 32 44 -29 0 0 15 56 13 30 11 -72 140 38 26 140 27 2 141 0 4 140 5 22
140 36 18 -28 0 0 15 56 20 31 11 -72 140 41 57 140 30 40 141 3 22 140 9 12
140 39 30 -27 0 0 15 56 27 32 11 -72 140 45 6 140 33 55 141 6 19 140 12 39
140 42 20 -26 0 0 15 56 35 33 11 -73 140 47 53 140 36 48 141 8 55 140 15 43
140 44 50 -25 0 0 15 56 43 34 11 -73 140 50 19 140 39 20 141 11 11 140 18 26
140 46 59 -24 0 0 15 56 51 35 11 -73 140 52 26 140 41 32 141 13 7 140 20 48
140 48 48 -23 0 0 15 56 59 36 11 -73 140 54 13 140 43 24 141 14 44 140 22 49
140 50 18 -22 0 0 15 57 7 37 11 -73 140 55 40 140 44 56 141 16 3 140 24 31
140 51 30 -21 0 0 15 57 16 38 11 -72 140 56 50 140 46 10 141 17 4 140 25 53
140 52 24 -20 0 0 15 57 24 39 11 -72 140 57 41 140 47 6 141 17 48 140 26 57
140 53 0 -19 0 0 15 57 33 40 12 -72 140 58 15 140 47 44 141 18 14 140 27 43
140 53 18 -18 0 0 15 57 42 41 12 -72 140 58 32 140 48 4 141 18 24 140 28 10
140 53 20 -17 0 0 15 57 52 42 12 -71 140 58 32 140 48 8 141 18 18 140 28 21
140 53 6 -16 0 0 15 58 1 43 12 -71 140 58 16 140 47 55 141 17 55 140 28 14
140 52 35 -15 0 0 15 58 11 44 12 -71 140 57 44 140 47 26 141 17 18 140 27 51
140 51 49 -14 0 0 15 58 21 45 12 -70 140 56 57 140 46 41 141 16 24 140 27 11
140 50 47 -13 0 0 15 58 31 46 12 -70 140 55 53 140 45 41 141 15 16 140 26 16
140 49 30 -12 0 0 15 58 41 47 13 -69 140 54 35 140 44 25 141 13 54 140 25 4
140 47 58 -11 0 0 15 58 51 48 13 -69 140 53 2 140 42 54 141 12 16 140 23 37
140 46 11 -10 0 0 15 59 2 49 13 -68 140 51 14 140 41 8 141 10 25 140 21 55
Uncertainty in time = +/- 4 secs
Prediction of 2014 Jun 22.0
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