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Updated: 2014 APR 23, 20:42 UT
Event Rank : 26
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2014 Jun 20 UT, the 18 km diameter asteroid (391) Ingeborg will occult a 12.4 mag star in the constellation Vulpecula for observers along a path across Western Australia from Kalbarri to Karratha.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 1.7 mag to 13.8 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 1.4 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
111 28 11 -31 0 0 17 36 21 26 35 -74 111 34 47 111 21 35 112 8 53 110 47 15
112 5 29 -30 0 0 17 36 25 28 35 -74 112 11 59 111 58 58 112 45 33 111 25 11
112 41 29 -29 0 0 17 36 30 29 35 -74 112 47 54 112 35 5 113 20 58 112 1 48
113 16 18 -28 0 0 17 36 35 30 34 -74 113 22 37 113 9 59 113 55 13 112 37 11
113 49 59 -27 0 0 17 36 40 31 34 -74 113 56 12 113 43 45 114 28 22 113 11 24
114 22 35 -26 0 0 17 36 45 32 34 -73 114 28 44 114 16 26 115 0 29 113 44 31
114 54 11 -25 0 0 17 36 50 33 34 -73 115 0 15 114 48 7 115 31 37 114 16 35
115 24 50 -24 0 0 17 36 56 34 34 -72 115 30 50 115 18 50 116 1 49 114 47 41
115 54 35 -23 0 0 17 37 1 35 34 -72 116 0 31 115 48 39 116 31 9 115 17 51
116 23 29 -22 0 0 17 37 7 36 34 -71 116 29 21 116 17 37 116 59 40 115 47 8
116 51 34 -21 0 0 17 37 12 37 34 -71 116 57 22 116 45 45 117 27 23 116 15 36
117 18 53 -20 0 0 17 37 18 39 34 -70 117 24 38 117 13 8 117 54 21 116 43 16
117 45 29 -19 0 0 17 37 24 40 34 -69 117 51 10 117 39 47 118 20 38 117 10 12
118 11 23 -18 0 0 17 37 30 41 34 -69 118 17 2 118 5 44 118 46 13 117 36 24
118 36 38 -17 0 0 17 37 37 42 34 -68 118 42 14 118 31 1 119 11 11 118 1 57
119 1 15 -16 0 0 17 37 43 43 34 -67 119 6 48 118 55 41 119 35 33 118 26 50
119 25 17 -15 0 0 17 37 49 44 34 -66 119 30 48 119 19 46 119 59 19 118 51 7
119 48 45 -14 0 0 17 37 56 45 34 -65 119 54 13 119 43 16 120 22 33 119 14 50
120 11 41 -13 0 0 17 38 3 46 34 -65 120 17 7 120 6 14 120 45 16 119 37 59
Uncertainty in time = +/- 4 secs
Prediction of 2014 Apr 23.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
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