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Updated: 2013 OCT 09, 01:03 UT
Event Rank : 12
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2014 Mar 22 UT, the 36 km diameter asteroid (19748) 2000 BD5 will occult a 10.2 mag star in the constellation Lupus for observers along a narrow path across Australia from Eucla across western South Australia and The Northern Territory to Darwin.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 6.1 mag to 16.3 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 2.9 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
131 37 2 -10 0 0 18 33 2 46 185 -41 131 27 8 131 46 55 129 38 25 133 35 33
131 31 15 -11 0 0 18 33 8 47 185 -41 131 21 20 131 41 11 129 32 15 133 30 9
131 25 27 -12 0 0 18 33 15 48 185 -41 131 15 29 131 35 25 129 26 1 133 24 46
131 19 36 -13 0 0 18 33 21 49 185 -41 131 9 36 131 29 36 129 19 43 133 19 23
131 13 43 -14 0 0 18 33 28 50 185 -41 131 3 41 131 23 46 129 13 19 133 14 0
131 7 48 -15 0 0 18 33 35 51 185 -41 130 57 42 131 17 53 129 6 51 133 8 37
131 1 49 -16 0 0 18 33 42 52 185 -41 130 51 41 131 11 57 129 0 17 133 3 14
130 55 48 -17 0 0 18 33 49 53 185 -40 130 45 37 131 6 0 128 53 38 132 57 50
130 49 44 -18 0 0 18 33 56 54 185 -40 130 39 29 130 59 59 128 46 54 132 52 26
130 43 37 -19 0 0 18 34 3 55 185 -40 130 33 18 130 53 55 128 40 3 132 47 2
130 37 26 -20 0 0 18 34 11 55 185 -40 130 27 4 130 47 48 128 33 6 132 41 37
130 31 12 -21 0 0 18 34 18 56 186 -40 130 20 46 130 41 39 128 26 4 132 36 12
130 24 55 -22 0 0 18 34 26 57 186 -39 130 14 24 130 35 25 128 18 54 132 30 46
130 18 34 -23 0 0 18 34 33 58 186 -39 130 7 58 130 29 9 128 11 38 132 25 19
130 12 8 -24 0 0 18 34 41 59 186 -39 130 1 28 130 22 48 128 4 14 132 19 51
130 5 39 -25 0 0 18 34 49 60 186 -39 129 54 54 130 16 24 127 56 44 132 14 23
129 59 5 -26 0 0 18 34 57 61 186 -38 129 48 15 130 9 55 127 49 5 132 8 53
129 52 27 -27 0 0 18 35 5 62 186 -38 129 41 30 130 3 23 127 41 18 132 3 22
129 45 43 -28 0 0 18 35 13 63 186 -38 129 34 41 129 56 45 127 33 23 131 57 50
129 38 55 -29 0 0 18 35 21 64 186 -37 129 27 47 129 50 3 127 25 19 131 52 17
129 32 1 -30 0 0 18 35 29 65 186 -37 129 20 46 129 43 16 127 17 6 131 46 43
129 25 2 -31 0 0 18 35 37 66 187 -37 129 13 40 129 36 24 127 8 43 131 41 7
129 17 57 -32 0 0 18 35 45 67 187 -36 129 6 28 129 29 26 127 0 9 131 35 29
129 10 46 -33 0 0 18 35 54 68 187 -36 128 59 9 129 22 23 126 51 25 131 29 50
129 3 28 -34 0 0 18 36 2 69 187 -35 128 51 43 129 15 13 126 42 30 131 24 9
Uncertainty in time = +/- 16 secs
Prediction of 2014 Feb 9.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
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