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Updated: 2014 JAN 19, 16:59 UT
Event Rank : 95
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2014 Feb 20 UT, the 130 km diameter asteroid (159) Aemilia will occult a 12.1 mag star in the constellation Virgo for observers along a path passing over North Island New Zealand. Later the path passes over north Queensland near Mackay and Townsville.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 1.0 mag to 12.6 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 14.1 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: .
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
179 12 7 -44 0 0 12 0 43 33 41 -35 -179 9 57 177 31 59 -177 47 20 176 3 56
178 23 44 -43 0 0 12 0 57 33 42 -36 -179 58 55 176 44 8 -178 36 48 175 16 31
177 33 54 -42 0 0 12 1 10 34 43 -37 179 10 48 175 54 43 -179 27 31 174 27 25
176 42 36 -41 0 0 12 1 24 34 45 -38 178 19 9 175 3 43 179 40 31 173 36 37
175 49 46 -40 0 0 12 1 38 34 46 -39 177 26 6 174 11 3 178 47 14 172 44 3
174 55 22 -39 0 0 12 1 52 35 47 -40 176 31 36 173 16 41 177 52 35 171 49 39
173 59 19 -38 0 0 12 2 7 35 49 -41 175 35 34 172 20 32 176 56 31 170 53 21
173 1 32 -37 0 0 12 2 22 35 50 -41 174 37 56 171 22 31 175 58 56 169 55 2
172 1 56 -36 0 0 12 2 37 35 52 -42 173 38 37 170 22 32 174 59 48 168 54 37
171 0 26 -35 0 0 12 2 52 35 53 -43 172 37 32 169 20 29 173 59 1 167 51 59
169 56 54 -34 0 0 12 3 8 35 55 -44 171 34 35 168 16 13 172 56 28 166 46 58
168 51 12 -33 0 0 12 3 23 35 56 -44 170 29 38 167 9 37 171 52 3 165 39 25
167 43 11 -32 0 0 12 3 40 34 57 -45 169 22 33 166 0 28 170 45 39 164 29 7
166 32 40 -31 0 0 12 3 56 34 59 -46 168 13 11 164 48 35 169 37 7 163 15 51
165 19 26 -30 0 0 12 4 13 34 60 -46 167 1 20 163 33 44 168 26 17 161 59 19
164 3 16 -29 0 0 12 4 30 33 62 -47 165 46 49 162 15 36 167 12 58 160 39 13
162 43 51 -28 0 0 12 4 47 33 63 -47 164 29 21 160 53 52 165 56 56 159 15 6
161 20 51 -27 0 0 12 5 4 32 65 -47 163 8 39 159 28 5 164 37 56 157 46 29
159 53 49 -26 0 0 12 5 22 32 66 -47 161 44 22 157 57 46 163 15 40 156 12 44
158 22 15 -25 0 0 12 5 40 31 68 -47 160 16 4 156 22 14 161 49 45 154 33 3
156 45 30 -24 0 0 12 5 58 30 69 -47 158 43 14 154 40 39 160 19 44 152 46 20
155 2 43 -23 0 0 12 6 17 29 71 -47 157 5 12 152 51 55 158 45 6 150 51 8
153 12 46 -22 0 0 12 6 36 27 72 -47 155 21 7 150 54 30 157 5 7 148 45 22
151 14 11 -21 0 0 12 6 55 26 74 -46 153 29 52 148 46 14 155 18 56 146 25 50
149 4 45 -20 0 0 12 7 15 24 75 -46 151 29 55 146 23 47 153 25 20 143 47 19
Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude
148 0 0 -19 32 6 12 7 24 24 76 -45 -18 26 26 -20 39 46 -17 31 24 -21 39 45
147 0 0 -19 7 29 12 7 33 23 76 -45 -18 2 18 -20 14 36 -17 7 41 -21 14 4
146 0 0 -18 44 2 12 7 41 22 77 -44 -17 39 20 -19 50 39 -16 45 5 -20 49 38
145 0 0 -18 21 47 12 7 48 21 77 -44 -17 17 31 -19 27 55 -16 23 37 -20 26 27
144 0 0 -18 0 41 12 7 56 20 78 -43 -16 56 50 -19 6 22 -16 3 15 -20 4 29
143 0 0 -17 40 45 12 8 3 20 78 -43 -16 37 16 -18 46 1 -15 44 0 -19 43 45
142 0 0 -17 21 57 12 8 10 19 79 -42 -16 18 50 -18 26 51 -15 25 51 -19 24 13
141 0 0 -17 4 19 12 8 16 18 79 -41 -16 1 31 -18 8 51 -15 8 47 -19 5 53
140 0 0 -16 47 49 12 8 22 17 80 -41 -15 45 19 -17 52 2 -14 52 49 -18 48 46
139 0 0 -16 32 27 12 8 28 16 80 -40 -15 30 13 -17 36 22 -14 37 57 -18 32 49
138 0 0 -16 18 13 12 8 34 15 81 -39 -15 16 14 -17 21 52 -14 24 9 -18 18 4
137 0 0 -16 5 6 12 8 39 14 81 -39 -15 3 21 -17 8 30 -14 11 27 -18 4 29
136 0 0 -15 53 7 12 8 44 13 81 -38 -14 51 33 -16 56 18 -13 59 49 -17 52 5
135 0 0 -15 42 15 12 8 48 13 82 -37 -14 40 52 -16 45 15 -13 49 17 -17 40 51
134 0 0 -15 32 30 12 8 53 12 82 -36 -14 31 17 -16 35 20 -13 39 48 -17 30 47
133 0 0 -15 23 53 12 8 57 11 82 -36 -14 22 47 -16 26 34 -13 31 25 -17 21 53
132 0 0 -15 16 22 12 9 0 10 83 -35 -14 15 23 -16 18 57 -13 24 6 -17 14 10
131 0 0 -15 9 59 12 9 4 9 83 -34 -14 9 4 -16 12 28 -13 17 52 -17 7 36
130 0 0 -15 4 42 12 9 7 8 83 -33 -14 3 52 -16 7 8 -13 12 42 -17 2 12
129 0 0 -15 0 33 12 9 9 7 83 -32 -13 59 45 -16 2 57 -13 8 37 -16 57 58
128 0 0 -14 57 32 12 9 11 6 84 -31 -13 56 44 -15 59 54 -13 5 37 -16 54 55
127 0 0 -14 55 38 12 9 13 5 84 -31 -13 54 50 -15 58 1 .. .. .. -16 53 2
126 0 0 -14 54 52 12 9 15 4 84 -30 -13 54 2 -15 57 16 .. .. .. -16 52 19
125 0 0 -14 55 14 12 9 16 3 84 -29 -13 54 21 -15 57 42 .. .. .. -16 52 48
124 0 0 -14 56 44 12 9 17 2 85 -28 -13 55 46 -15 59 17 .. .. .. -16 54 28
Uncertainty in time = +/- 6 secs
Prediction of 2014 Jan 20.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
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