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Updated: 2013 NOV 22, 17:25 UT
Event Rank : 69
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2013 Dec 26 UT, the 78 km diameter asteroid (414) Liriope will occult a 10.6 mag star in the constellation Cancer for observers along a broad path across the South Island of New Zealand, from Dunedin to Milford Sound, and across south-eastern Australia, including nearly all of Victoria and directly over Melbourne, but at somewhat low elevation.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 3.9 mag to 14.5 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 6.8 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
174 37 45 -50 0 0 12 30 2 16 25 -17 176 34 57 172 33 23 179 43 11 168 37 25
173 36 13 -49 0 0 12 30 12 17 26 -18 175 34 28 171 30 21 178 43 48 167 30 7
172 29 24 -48 0 0 12 30 22 17 27 -19 174 29 14 170 21 22 177 40 21 166 15 5
171 16 50 -47 0 0 12 30 34 18 28 -20 173 18 52 169 5 49 176 32 36 164 51 15
169 57 56 -46 0 0 12 30 46 18 30 -21 172 2 57 167 42 54 175 20 14 163 17 0
168 31 53 -45 0 0 12 30 59 19 31 -22 170 40 50 166 11 29 174 2 49 161 29 55
166 57 34 -44 0 0 12 31 13 19 33 -23 169 11 42 164 29 57 172 39 50 159 25 59
165 13 21 -43 0 0 12 31 29 19 34 -23 167 34 25 162 35 48 171 10 32 156 57 44
163 16 49 -42 0 0 12 31 46 19 36 -24 165 47 20 160 25 1 169 34 0 153 48 10
161 4 6 -41 0 0 12 32 4 19 38 -25 163 48 2 157 50 18 167 48 52 148 49 50
Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude
160 0 0 -40 34 0 12 32 13 19 39 -25 -39 23 34 -41 49 31 -37 31 43 -44 15 32
159 0 0 -40 11 20 12 32 21 19 40 -25 -39 1 55 -41 25 37 -37 11 26 -43 48 36
158 0 0 -39 50 16 12 32 28 18 41 -26 -38 41 45 -41 3 26 -36 52 30 -43 23 44
157 0 0 -39 30 44 12 32 36 18 42 -26 -38 23 2 -40 42 54 -36 34 55 -43 0 50
156 0 0 -39 12 43 12 32 43 18 43 -26 -38 5 44 -40 24 0 -36 18 38 -42 39 49
155 0 0 -38 56 10 12 32 51 17 44 -26 -37 49 51 -40 6 40 -36 3 39 -42 20 38
154 0 0 -38 41 5 12 32 58 17 44 -26 -37 35 21 -39 50 53 -35 49 57 -42 3 14
153 0 0 -38 27 27 12 33 5 17 45 -26 -37 22 13 -39 36 38 -35 37 32 -41 47 33
152 0 0 -38 15 13 12 33 12 16 46 -26 -37 10 27 -39 23 52 -35 26 23 -41 33 33
151 0 0 -38 4 24 12 33 18 16 47 -26 -37 0 0 -39 12 35 -35 16 30 -41 21 12
150 0 0 -37 54 58 12 33 25 15 48 -26 -36 50 54 -39 2 45 -35 7 51 -41 10 30
149 0 0 -37 46 55 12 33 31 15 48 -25 -36 43 7 -38 54 23 -35 0 27 -41 1 23
148 0 0 -37 40 14 12 33 37 14 49 -25 -36 36 40 -38 47 27 -34 54 17 -40 53 52
147 0 0 -37 34 55 12 33 42 14 50 -25 -36 31 31 -38 41 57 -34 49 22 -40 47 55
146 0 0 -37 30 58 12 33 48 13 51 -25 -36 27 40 -38 37 52 -34 45 41 -40 43 33
145 0 0 -37 28 23 12 33 53 13 51 -24 -36 25 9 -38 35 13 -34 43 14 -40 40 44
144 0 0 -37 27 10 12 33 58 12 52 -24 -36 23 55 -38 33 59 -34 42 1 -40 39 29
143 0 0 -37 27 18 12 34 3 12 53 -24 -36 24 1 -38 34 10 -34 42 3 -40 39 48
142 0 0 -37 28 49 12 34 8 11 53 -23 -36 25 26 -38 35 48 -34 43 19 -40 41 41
141 0 0 -37 31 42 12 34 12 10 54 -23 -36 28 10 -38 38 52 -34 45 50 -40 45 8
140 0 0 -37 35 58 12 34 16 10 55 -22 -36 32 14 -38 43 22 -34 49 36 -40 50 12
139 0 0 -37 41 38 12 34 20 9 55 -22 -36 37 38 -38 49 21 -34 54 38 -40 56 51
138 0 0 -37 48 42 12 34 23 8 56 -21 -36 44 23 -38 56 47 -35 0 57 -41 5 9
137 0 0 -37 57 12 12 34 27 8 57 -21 -36 52 30 -39 5 44 -35 8 32 -41 15 7
136 0 0 -38 7 8 12 34 30 7 57 -20 -37 2 0 -39 16 11 -35 17 24 -41 26 45
135 0 0 -38 18 32 12 34 32 6 58 -20 -37 12 53 -39 28 11 -35 27 36 -41 40 8
134 0 0 -38 31 25 12 34 35 5 59 -19 -37 25 12 -39 41 45 .. .. .. -41 55 17
133 0 0 -38 45 48 12 34 37 4 59 -18 -37 38 57 -39 56 55 .. .. .. -42 12 15
132 0 0 -39 1 44 12 34 38 4 60 -18 -37 54 9 -40 13 44 .. .. .. -42 31 6
131 0 0 -39 19 15 12 34 40 3 60 -17 -38 10 51 -40 32 13 .. .. .. -42 51 55
130 0 0 -39 38 22 12 34 41 2 61 -16 -38 29 4 -40 52 26 .. .. .. -43 14 45
129 0 0 -39 59 9 12 34 41 1 62 -15 -38 48 51 -41 14 27 .. .. .. .. .. ..
128 0 0 -40 21 38 12 34 42 0 62 -15 -39 10 14 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Uncertainty in time = +/- 9 secs
Prediction of 2013 Nov 23.0
Use these links for further information:
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[Observing Details]
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