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ASTROMETRIC UPDATE:
OCCULTATION BY (636) ERIKA - 2013 May 11

[Edwin Goffin's Prediction + Finder Charts]

[Detailed Finder Charts]


Updated:   2013 MAR 17, 21:41 UT

Event Rank : 67

(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).


THE UPDATED PATH

Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.

Erika Update Map


On 2013 May 11 UT, the 74 km diameter asteroid (636) Erika will occult a 11.8 mag star in the constellation Sagittarius for observers along a north-to-south across Western Australia from near Broome to east of Esperance.

In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.2 mag to 13.9 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 16.9 seconds.

This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.

Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/

EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY : Data for the target star : Data for the minor planet : The Occultation Path :
                   Centre              Star  Star   Sun      Path Limits           Error Limits
  E. Longitude   Latitude      U.T.    Alt    Az   Alt    Limit 1    Limit 2    Limit 3    Limit 4
      o  '  "     o  '  "    h  m  s     o     o     o    o  '  "    o  '  "    o  '  "    o  '  "
                                                        Longitude  Longitude  Longitude  Longitude
    121 19 39   -13  0  0   20 14 24    69   208   -27  120 58 42  121 40 37  120 21 29  122 18  1
    121 24  9   -14  0  0   20 14 49    69   210   -27  121  3  6  121 45 14  120 25 42  122 22 49
    121 28 59   -15  0  0   20 15 14    70   212   -27  121  7 49  121 50 10  120 30 14  122 27 58
    121 34  9   -16  0  0   20 15 39    71   214   -27  121 12 53  121 55 28  120 35  5  122 33 29
    121 39 41   -17  0  0   20 16  5    72   216   -27  121 18 17  122  1  8  120 40 15  122 39 22

    121 45 36   -18  0  0   20 16 30    72   218   -27  121 24  3  122  7 10  120 45 47  122 45 40
    121 51 54   -19  0  0   20 16 55    73   220   -27  121 30 12  122 13 37  120 51 41  122 52 23
    121 58 36   -20  0  0   20 17 21    73   223   -27  121 36 45  122 20 29  120 57 57  122 59 32
    122  5 45   -21  0  0   20 17 47    74   226   -27  121 43 44  122 27 47  121  4 38  123  7  8
    122 13 20   -22  0  0   20 18 13    75   229   -27  121 51  8  122 35 33  121 11 44  123 15 13

    122 21 23   -23  0  0   20 18 39    75   232   -27  121 59  1  122 43 48  121 19 17  123 23 48
    122 29 57   -24  0  0   20 19  5    75   236   -27  122  7 22  122 52 33  121 27 17  123 32 55
    122 39  1   -25  0  0   20 19 31    76   239   -27  122 16 14  123  1 51  121 35 47  123 42 35
    122 48 38   -26  0  0   20 19 57    76   243   -26  122 25 38  123 11 41  121 44 48  123 52 50
    122 58 50   -27  0  0   20 20 23    76   247   -26  122 35 36  123 22  7  121 54 20  124  3 42

    123  9 38   -28  0  0   20 20 49    76   251   -26  122 46  9  123 33 11  122  4 28  124 15 12
    123 21  5   -29  0  0   20 21 16    76   255   -26  122 57 20  123 44 53  122 15 11  124 27 23
    123 33 12   -30  0  0   20 21 42    76   259   -26  123  9 10  123 57 17  122 26 31  124 40 17
    123 46  1   -31  0  0   20 22  9    76   264   -26  123 21 42  124 10 24  122 38 32  124 53 56
    123 59 36   -32  0  0   20 22 35    76   267   -26  123 34 58  124 24 17  122 51 16  125  8 23

    124 13 58   -33  0  0   20 23  2    76   271   -25  123 49  0  124 38 59  123  4 44  125 23 41
    124 29 11   -34  0  0   20 23 28    75   275   -25  124  3 52  124 54 33  123 18 59  125 39 52
    124 45 17   -35  0  0   20 23 55    75   278   -25  124 19 36  125 11  1  123 34  5  125 57  0
    125  2 19   -36  0  0   20 24 21    74   281   -25  124 36 16  125 28 27  123 50  3  126 15  9
    125 20 22   -37  0  0   20 24 48    74   284   -25  124 53 54  125 46 55  124  6 58  126 34 21

    125 39 30   -38  0  0   20 25 15    73   287   -24  125 12 36  126  6 28  124 24 54  126 54 43
    125 59 45   -39  0  0   20 25 41    72   290   -24  125 32 23  126 27 12  124 43 53  127 16 16
    126 21 13   -40  0  0   20 26  8    72   292   -24  125 53 22  126 49 10  125  4  1  127 39  8
    126 44  0   -41  0  0   20 26 34    71   294   -23  126 15 37  127 12 28  125 25 21  128  3 23
    127  8  9   -42  0  0   20 27  1    70   296   -23  126 39 14  127 37 11  125 48  0  128 29  7


Uncertainty in time = +/- 15 secs

Prediction of 2013 Mar 17.0

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