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Updated: 2013 FEB 08, 19:12 UT
Event Rank : 96
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2013 Mar 15 UT, the 200 km diameter asteroid (9) Metis will occult a 12.4 mag star in the constellation Gemini for observers along a very broad path across New Zealand, including much of the South Island from about Cromwell to Kawatin, and across Australia from Taree across northern New South Wales and into northern South Australia into evening twilight. The path covers from a little north of Sydney to Grafton where it crosses the caost.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 0.1 mag to 10.3 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 16.9 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, TMO astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
175 28 54 -46 0 0 9 51 49 8 328 -31 172 16 14 178 33 52 169 31 15 -178 59 14
174 6 31 -45 0 0 9 51 46 10 329 -31 170 53 38 177 11 17 168 8 3 179 37 47
172 42 31 -44 0 0 9 51 41 11 330 -31 169 29 0 175 47 26 166 42 25 178 13 47
171 16 42 -43 0 0 9 51 37 12 332 -31 168 2 7 174 22 9 165 14 6 176 48 36
169 48 51 -42 0 0 9 51 31 14 333 -30 166 32 42 172 55 13 163 42 45 175 22 3
168 18 42 -41 0 0 9 51 25 15 334 -30 165 0 26 171 26 26 162 7 59 173 53 58
166 45 59 -40 0 0 9 51 18 17 335 -30 163 24 59 169 55 33 160 29 20 172 24 6
165 10 20 -39 0 0 9 51 10 18 336 -29 161 45 52 168 22 18 158 46 14 170 52 15
163 31 21 -38 0 0 9 51 1 19 338 -28 160 2 34 166 46 21 156 57 56 169 18 7
161 48 34 -37 0 0 9 50 51 21 339 -28 158 14 24 165 7 22 155 3 32 167 41 24
160 1 24 -36 0 0 9 50 40 22 341 -27 156 20 32 163 24 52 153 1 47 166 1 45
158 9 5 -35 0 0 9 50 28 24 342 -26 154 19 51 161 38 20 150 51 0 164 18 42
156 10 41 -34 0 0 9 50 14 25 344 -24 152 10 51 159 47 6 148 28 46 162 31 47
154 4 57 -33 0 0 9 49 59 27 346 -23 149 51 27 157 50 22 145 51 20 160 40 21
Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude
153 0 0 -32 30 31 9 49 51 27 347 -22 -34 22 21 -30 44 24 -35 59 9 -29 21 2
152 0 0 -32 4 13 9 49 44 28 348 -22 -33 55 9 -30 18 52 -35 31 5 -28 56 3
151 0 0 -31 38 48 9 49 36 29 349 -21 -33 28 52 -29 54 11 -35 3 59 -28 31 54
150 0 0 -31 14 17 9 49 28 29 350 -20 -33 3 32 -29 30 23 -34 37 51 -28 8 36
149 0 0 -30 50 40 9 49 20 30 351 -19 -32 39 8 -29 7 26 -34 12 42 -27 46 9
148 0 0 -30 27 57 9 49 12 30 352 -19 -32 15 41 -28 45 22 -33 48 32 -27 24 33
147 0 0 -30 6 9 9 49 4 31 353 -18 -31 53 10 -28 24 11 -33 25 20 -27 3 49
146 0 0 -29 45 15 9 48 55 31 354 -17 -31 31 35 -28 3 52 -33 3 8 -26 43 56
145 0 0 -29 25 16 9 48 47 31 355 -16 -31 10 58 -27 44 27 -32 41 53 -26 24 55
144 0 0 -29 6 12 9 48 39 32 356 -15 -30 51 17 -27 25 54 -32 21 38 -26 6 45
143 0 0 -28 48 2 9 48 30 32 357 -15 -30 32 33 -27 8 15 -32 2 21 -25 49 28
142 0 0 -28 30 48 9 48 22 33 358 -14 -30 14 46 -26 51 29 -31 44 3 -25 33 3
141 0 0 -28 14 29 9 48 13 33 359 -13 -29 57 56 -26 35 36 -31 26 44 -25 17 30
140 0 0 -27 59 4 9 48 4 33 0 -12 -29 42 2 -26 20 37 -31 10 24 -25 2 50
139 0 0 -27 44 35 9 47 56 33 1 -11 -29 27 6 -26 6 32 -30 55 2 -24 49 2
138 0 0 -27 31 1 9 47 47 34 2 -10 -29 13 6 -25 53 20 -30 40 39 -24 36 6
137 0 0 -27 18 22 9 47 38 34 3 -9 -29 0 4 -25 41 1 -30 27 14 -24 24 3
136 0 0 -27 6 38 9 47 29 34 4 -9 -28 47 58 -25 29 37 -30 14 48 -24 12 52
135 0 0 -26 55 49 9 47 20 34 6 -8 -28 36 49 -25 19 5 -30 3 21 -24 2 34
134 0 0 -26 45 55 9 47 12 34 7 -7 -28 26 37 -25 9 28 -29 52 51 -23 53 8
133 0 0 -26 36 57 9 47 3 34 8 -6 -28 17 22 -25 0 44 -29 43 21 -23 44 35
132 0 0 -26 28 53 9 46 54 34 9 -5 -28 9 3 -24 52 53 -29 34 48 -23 36 54
131 0 0 -26 21 44 9 46 45 34 10 -4 -28 1 42 -24 45 57 -29 27 14 -23 30 6
130 0 0 -26 15 31 9 46 36 34 11 -3 -27 55 16 -24 39 53 -29 20 38 -23 24 11
Uncertainty in time = +/- 7 secs
Prediction of 2013 Feb 9.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
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