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Updated: 2012 OCT 25, 00:16 UT
Event Rank : 82
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2013 Feb 11 UT, the 158 km diameter asteroid (690) Wratislavia will occult a 9.9 mag star in the constellation Virgo for observers along a path beginning in Queensland between Rockhampton and Brisbane. The path moves south through New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania, near Dubbo, Yass, Canberra and Melbourne.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 4.3 mag to 14.2 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 41.5 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
152 33 1 -19 0 0 15 29 44 55 101 -51 153 27 13 -19 3 44 151 38 18 -18 55 54 154 35 53 -19 7 59 150 27 28 -18 50 5
152 22 9 -20 12 55 15 30 19 55 100 -50 153 16 44 -20 16 39 151 27 4 -20 8 48 154 25 52 -20 20 54 150 15 45 -20 2 59
152 10 8 -21 25 38 15 30 55 55 98 -49 153 5 7 -21 29 23 151 14 38 -21 21 31 154 14 47 -21 33 39 150 2 47 -21 15 40
151 56 55 -22 38 12 15 31 30 56 96 -48 152 52 22 -22 41 58 151 0 58 -22 34 3 154 2 36 -22 46 16 149 48 33 -22 28 10
151 42 30 -23 50 39 15 32 5 56 94 -47 152 38 26 -23 54 27 150 46 3 -23 46 28 153 49 18 -23 58 47 149 32 59 -23 40 32
151 26 49 -25 2 59 15 32 40 56 93 -46 152 23 18 -25 6 50 150 29 49 -24 58 46 153 34 51 -25 11 13 149 16 4 -24 52 46
151 9 50 -26 15 16 15 33 15 55 91 -45 152 6 54 -26 19 10 150 12 15 -26 10 59 153 19 12 -26 23 37 148 57 44 -26 4 55
150 51 30 -27 27 31 15 33 50 55 89 -44 151 49 11 -27 31 29 149 53 17 -27 23 10 153 2 18 -27 36 0 148 37 56 -27 17 0
150 31 44 -28 39 45 15 34 26 55 88 -43 151 30 7 -28 43 47 149 32 50 -28 35 19 152 44 5 -28 48 23 148 16 36 -28 29 2
150 10 29 -29 52 0 15 35 1 55 86 -42 151 9 36 -29 56 8 149 10 50 -29 47 29 152 24 31 -30 0 50 147 53 39 -29 41 4
149 47 40 -31 4 18 15 35 36 55 85 -41 150 47 34 -31 8 31 148 47 12 -30 59 40 152 3 29 -31 13 20 147 28 59 -30 53 7
149 23 11 -32 16 39 15 36 11 54 83 -40 150 23 56 -32 20 59 148 21 51 -32 11 54 151 40 56 -32 25 56 147 2 31 -32 5 11
148 56 55 -33 29 6 15 36 46 54 82 -39 149 58 36 -33 33 34 147 54 40 -33 24 13 151 16 46 -33 38 40 146 34 7 -33 17 18
148 28 46 -34 41 40 15 37 22 53 80 -38 149 31 26 -34 46 16 147 25 31 -34 36 37 150 50 51 -34 51 32 146 3 40 -34 29 30
147 58 35 -35 54 22 15 37 57 53 79 -37 149 2 19 -35 59 8 146 54 16 -35 49 9 150 23 5 -36 4 35 145 31 2 -35 41 48
147 26 13 -37 7 13 15 38 32 52 78 -36 148 31 6 -37 12 10 146 20 45 -37 1 49 149 53 18 -37 17 50 144 56 1 -36 54 12
146 51 30 -38 20 15 15 39 7 52 76 -35 147 57 37 -38 25 24 145 44 47 -38 14 38 149 21 22 -38 31 18 144 18 26 -38 6 43
146 14 14 -39 33 29 15 39 42 51 75 -34 147 21 39 -39 38 50 145 6 10 -39 27 37 148 47 5 -39 45 1 143 38 5 -39 19 23
145 34 10 -40 46 55 15 40 17 50 74 -33 146 43 1 -40 52 31 144 24 40 -40 40 48 148 10 15 -40 58 59 142 54 42 -40 32 12
144 51 3 -42 0 34 15 40 53 50 74 -32 146 1 27 -42 6 27 143 39 59 -41 54 9 147 30 37 -42 13 15 142 8 1 -41 45 9
144 4 35 -43 14 27 15 41 28 49 73 -31 145 16 39 -43 20 39 142 51 51 -43 7 43 146 47 55 -43 27 49 141 17 41 -42 58 15
143 14 26 -44 28 35 15 42 3 48 72 -30 144 28 17 -44 35 7 141 59 53 -44 21 28 146 1 50 -44 42 42 140 23 21 -44 11 30
142 20 11 -45 42 57 15 42 38 47 72 -29 143 35 59 -45 49 52 141 3 40 -45 35 25 145 11 59 -45 57 54 139 24 35 -45 24 53
141 21 23 -46 57 32 15 43 13 46 71 -28 142 39 17 -47 4 53 140 2 44 -46 49 33 144 17 57 -47 13 26 138 20 53 -46 38 23
140 17 29 -48 12 20 15 43 48 45 71 -27 141 37 40 -48 20 11 138 56 31 -48 3 49 143 19 14 -48 29 18 137 11 39 -47 51 57
Uncertainty in time = +/- 27 secs
Prediction of 2013 Jan 27.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
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[Asteroid Occultation Results]
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