|
|
Updated: 2013 JAN 26, 16:26 UT
Event Rank : 24
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2013 Feb 04 UT, the 32 km diameter asteroid (5651) Traversa will occult a 9.6 mag star in the constellation Gemini for observers along a path passing near south Island New Zealand. Then in Australia through New South Wales passing near Sydney and Canberra.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 7.0 mag to 16.6 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 2.4 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
169 1 47 -51 0 0 10 15 59 23 18 -14 169 33 17 168 30 4 172 29 19 165 23 47
168 7 16 -50 0 0 10 16 7 24 19 -15 168 38 30 167 35 48 171 33 0 164 30 54
167 10 58 -49 0 0 10 16 15 24 20 -15 167 41 59 166 39 42 170 35 14 163 35 53
166 12 49 -48 0 0 10 16 23 25 21 -15 166 43 41 165 41 43 169 35 56 162 38 39
165 12 47 -47 0 0 10 16 32 26 22 -16 165 43 32 164 41 46 168 35 3 161 39 9
164 10 45 -46 0 0 10 16 40 26 23 -16 164 41 27 163 39 47 167 32 31 160 37 16
163 6 38 -45 0 0 10 16 50 27 25 -16 163 37 20 162 35 40 166 28 13 159 32 54
162 0 19 -44 0 0 10 16 59 28 26 -16 162 31 4 161 29 17 165 22 5 158 25 54
160 51 40 -43 0 0 10 17 9 28 27 -16 161 22 32 160 20 30 164 13 59 157 16 6
159 40 31 -42 0 0 10 17 20 29 29 -16 160 11 34 159 9 10 163 3 47 156 3 17
158 26 42 -41 0 0 10 17 30 29 30 -16 158 58 0 157 55 4 161 51 21 154 47 14
157 9 58 -40 0 0 10 17 41 29 32 -16 157 41 36 156 37 59 160 36 30 153 27 38
155 50 5 -39 0 0 10 17 53 30 33 -16 156 22 8 155 17 39 159 19 1 152 4 8
154 26 43 -38 0 0 10 18 5 30 35 -16 154 59 18 153 53 44 157 58 40 150 36 17
152 59 31 -37 0 0 10 18 17 30 37 -15 153 32 44 152 25 50 156 35 12 149 3 32
151 27 59 -36 0 0 10 18 30 30 39 -15 152 2 1 150 53 29 155 8 15 147 25 12
149 51 35 -35 0 0 10 18 44 30 40 -14 150 26 35 149 16 2 153 37 26 145 40 21
148 9 35 -34 0 0 10 18 58 30 42 -14 148 45 47 147 32 45 152 2 16 143 47 48
146 21 2 -33 0 0 10 19 13 30 44 -13 146 58 43 145 42 37 150 22 8 141 45 51
144 24 42 -32 0 0 10 19 28 29 46 -12 145 4 16 143 44 15 148 36 17 139 32 3
142 18 50 -31 0 0 10 19 44 29 48 -11 143 0 50 141 35 46 146 43 43 137 2 37
Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude
141 0 0 -30 24 58 10 19 54 28 50 -10 -30 5 54 -30 44 14 -28 20 28 -32 38 46
140 0 0 -29 59 36 10 20 1 28 51 -10 -29 40 43 -30 18 41 -27 56 13 -32 12 2
139 0 0 -29 35 22 10 20 9 28 52 -9 -29 16 39 -29 54 16 -27 33 0 -31 46 31
138 0 0 -29 12 13 10 20 16 27 52 -8 -28 53 39 -29 30 58 -27 10 49 -31 22 11
137 0 0 -28 50 10 10 20 23 27 53 -8 -28 31 45 -29 8 46 -26 49 41 -30 59 1
136 0 0 -28 29 13 10 20 29 26 54 -7 -28 10 56 -28 47 40 -26 29 34 -30 37 1
135 0 0 -28 9 20 10 20 36 26 55 -6 -27 51 11 -28 27 40 -26 10 30 -30 16 10
134 0 0 -27 50 32 10 20 43 25 56 -6 -27 32 30 -28 8 44 -25 52 26 -29 56 28
133 0 0 -27 32 48 10 20 49 25 57 -5 -27 14 53 -27 50 54 -25 35 23 -29 37 54
132 0 0 -27 16 8 10 20 55 24 57 -4 -26 58 19 -27 34 7 -25 19 22 -29 20 28
131 0 0 -27 0 32 10 21 1 23 58 -4 -26 42 49 -27 18 25 -25 4 21 -29 4 8
130 0 0 -26 45 59 10 21 7 23 59 -3 -26 28 21 -27 3 47 -24 50 20 -28 48 56
129 0 0 -26 32 29 10 21 13 22 60 -2 -26 14 55 -26 50 12 -24 37 20 -28 34 50
128 0 0 -26 20 2 10 21 18 22 60 -1 -26 2 33 -26 37 40 -24 25 20 -28 21 51
127 0 0 -26 8 37 10 21 24 21 61 -1 -25 51 12 -26 26 12 -24 14 19 -28 9 57
Uncertainty in time = +/- 8 secs
Prediction of 2013 Jan 27.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
[Top of Page][Return to Home Page]