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Updated: 2012 JUL 10, 06:28 UT
Event Rank : 10
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2012 Dec 22 UT, the 14 km diameter asteroid (6905) Miyazaki will occult a 9.5 mag star in the constellation Leo Minor for observers along a very narrow path across western Queensland and western New South Wales.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 6.9 mag to 16.4 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 1.9 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
144 29 12 -44 0 0 18 39 45 16 357 0 144 34 31 144 23 53 145 45 15 143 13 5
144 20 55 -43 0 0 18 39 50 17 357 -1 144 26 9 144 15 42 145 35 45 143 6 3
144 12 41 -42 0 0 18 39 54 18 357 -2 144 17 50 144 7 32 145 26 20 142 58 58
144 4 28 -41 0 0 18 39 59 19 357 -2 144 9 32 143 59 24 145 17 1 142 51 52
143 56 16 -40 0 0 18 40 4 20 357 -3 144 1 16 143 51 17 145 7 46 142 44 44
143 48 5 -39 0 0 18 40 9 21 357 -4 143 53 1 143 43 10 144 58 34 142 37 33
143 39 54 -38 0 0 18 40 15 22 357 -4 143 44 46 143 35 3 144 49 26 142 30 19
143 31 43 -37 0 0 18 40 21 23 357 -5 143 36 30 143 26 55 144 40 20 142 23 2
143 23 31 -36 0 0 18 40 27 24 357 -6 143 28 15 143 18 47 144 31 16 142 15 42
143 15 18 -35 0 0 18 40 33 25 357 -6 143 19 59 143 10 38 144 22 14 142 8 18
143 7 5 -34 0 0 18 40 40 26 357 -7 143 11 42 143 2 27 144 13 14 142 0 51
142 58 49 -33 0 0 18 40 46 27 357 -7 143 3 23 142 54 15 144 4 14 141 53 21
142 50 32 -32 0 0 18 40 53 28 358 -8 142 55 3 142 46 1 143 55 14 141 45 46
142 42 13 -31 0 0 18 41 1 29 358 -9 142 46 41 142 37 45 143 46 15 141 38 7
142 33 52 -30 0 0 18 41 8 30 358 -9 142 38 17 142 29 26 143 37 15 141 30 24
142 25 28 -29 0 0 18 41 16 31 358 -10 142 29 51 142 21 4 143 28 15 141 22 36
142 17 1 -28 0 0 18 41 24 32 358 -11 142 21 22 142 12 40 143 19 13 141 14 44
142 8 31 -27 0 0 18 41 32 33 358 -11 142 12 50 142 4 13 143 10 11 141 6 47
141 59 59 -26 0 0 18 41 40 34 358 -12 142 4 15 141 55 42 143 1 7 140 58 46
141 51 23 -25 0 0 18 41 49 35 358 -13 141 55 37 141 47 8 142 52 2 140 50 39
141 42 43 -24 0 0 18 41 58 36 358 -13 141 46 55 141 38 31 142 42 54 140 42 27
141 33 59 -23 0 0 18 42 7 37 358 -14 141 38 10 141 29 49 142 33 44 140 34 10
141 25 12 -22 0 0 18 42 16 38 358 -14 141 29 21 141 21 3 142 24 32 140 25 47
141 16 21 -21 0 0 18 42 25 39 359 -15 141 20 28 141 12 13 142 15 17 140 17 19
141 7 25 -20 0 0 18 42 35 40 359 -16 141 11 30 141 3 19 142 5 59 140 8 46
140 58 25 -19 0 0 18 42 45 41 359 -16 141 2 29 140 54 20 141 56 38 140 0 6
140 49 20 -18 0 0 18 42 55 42 359 -17 140 53 22 140 45 17 141 47 14 139 51 21
140 40 10 -17 0 0 18 43 5 43 359 -18 140 44 12 140 36 9 141 37 46 139 42 29
140 30 55 -16 0 0 18 43 16 44 359 -18 140 34 56 140 26 55 141 28 14 139 33 31
140 21 36 -15 0 0 18 43 26 45 359 -19 140 25 35 140 17 37 141 18 39 139 24 27
140 12 11 -14 0 0 18 43 37 46 359 -19 140 16 9 140 8 13 141 8 59 139 15 17
140 2 40 -13 0 0 18 43 48 47 359 -20 140 6 37 139 58 43 140 59 15 139 6 0
139 53 4 -12 0 0 18 43 59 48 360 -21 139 57 1 139 49 8 140 49 27 138 56 36
139 43 22 -11 0 0 18 44 11 49 360 -21 139 47 18 139 39 27 140 39 34 138 47 5
139 33 34 -10 0 0 18 44 22 50 360 -22 139 37 29 139 29 39 140 29 36 138 37 27
139 23 40 - 9 0 0 18 44 34 51 0 -22 139 27 35 139 19 46 140 19 33 138 27 42
139 13 40 - 8 0 0 18 44 46 52 0 -23 139 17 34 139 9 46 140 9 25 138 17 49
139 3 33 - 7 0 0 18 44 58 53 0 -24 139 7 27 138 59 40 139 59 11 138 7 49
138 53 20 - 6 0 0 18 45 10 54 1 -24 138 57 13 138 49 27 139 48 52 137 57 41
138 42 59 - 5 0 0 18 45 23 55 1 -25 138 46 52 138 39 7 139 38 27 137 47 26
138 32 32 - 4 0 0 18 45 35 56 1 -25 138 36 24 138 28 40 139 27 56 137 37 2
138 21 58 - 3 0 0 18 45 48 57 1 -26 138 25 50 138 18 5 139 17 19 137 26 30
138 11 15 - 2 0 0 18 46 1 58 1 -26 138 15 7 138 7 23 139 6 35 137 15 49
138 0 26 - 1 0 0 18 46 14 59 2 -27 138 4 18 137 56 34 138 55 45 137 5 0
137 49 28 0 0 0 18 46 27 60 2 -28 137 53 20 137 45 36 138 44 47 136 54 2
137 38 22 1 0 0 18 46 40 61 2 -28 137 42 15 137 34 30 138 33 43 136 42 55
137 27 8 2 0 0 18 46 53 62 3 -29 137 31 1 137 23 16 138 22 31 136 31 38
137 15 46 3 0 0 18 47 7 63 3 -29 137 19 38 137 11 53 138 11 12 136 20 12
Uncertainty in time = +/- 14 secs
Prediction of 2012 Dec 3.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
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[Asteroid Occultation Results]
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