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Updated: 2012 NOV 29, 22:45 UT
Event Rank : 44
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2012 Dec 06 UT, the 32 km diameter asteroid (292) Ludovica will occult a 11.4 mag star in the constellation Pisces for observers along a narrow path across Western Australia, from well east of Esperance to west of Broome.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.5 mag to 13.8 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 4.9 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
127 23 55 -35 0 0 14 2 40 37 308 -30 127 37 27 127 10 26 128 18 3 126 30 28
126 49 11 -34 0 0 14 2 53 38 308 -30 127 2 27 126 35 57 127 42 16 125 56 44
126 16 10 -33 0 0 14 3 7 39 307 -31 126 29 13 126 3 10 127 8 17 125 24 40
125 44 48 -32 0 0 14 3 21 40 307 -32 125 57 36 125 32 1 126 36 0 124 54 10
125 14 57 -31 0 0 14 3 35 41 307 -33 125 27 33 125 2 23 126 5 19 124 25 8
124 46 33 -30 0 0 14 3 49 42 307 -33 124 58 57 124 34 11 125 36 8 123 57 30
124 19 31 -29 0 0 14 4 3 43 306 -34 124 31 44 124 7 20 125 8 21 123 31 11
123 53 47 -28 0 0 14 4 18 44 306 -35 124 5 50 123 41 45 124 41 55 123 6 7
123 29 16 -27 0 0 14 4 32 45 305 -36 123 41 9 123 17 24 124 16 46 122 42 14
123 5 55 -26 0 0 14 4 47 45 305 -36 123 17 39 122 54 12 123 52 49 122 19 28
122 43 41 -25 0 0 14 5 2 46 304 -37 122 55 17 122 32 7 123 30 1 121 57 47
122 22 31 -24 0 0 14 5 17 47 304 -38 122 33 59 122 11 5 123 8 19 121 37 8
122 2 22 -23 0 0 14 5 32 48 303 -39 122 13 43 121 51 3 122 47 40 121 17 28
121 43 12 -22 0 0 14 5 48 48 302 -39 121 54 25 121 31 59 122 28 2 120 58 45
121 24 58 -21 0 0 14 6 3 49 302 -40 121 36 5 121 13 52 122 9 22 120 40 56
121 7 38 -20 0 0 14 6 19 50 301 -41 121 18 39 120 56 38 121 51 38 120 24 0
120 51 10 -19 0 0 14 6 34 51 300 -42 121 2 6 120 40 16 121 34 47 120 7 55
120 35 33 -18 0 0 14 6 50 51 299 -42 120 46 24 120 24 44 121 18 49 119 52 38
120 20 45 -17 0 0 14 7 6 52 298 -43 120 31 31 120 10 1 121 3 42 119 38 9
120 6 45 -16 0 0 14 7 22 52 297 -44 120 17 26 119 56 5 120 49 23 119 24 27
Uncertainty in time = +/- 7 secs
Prediction of 2012 Dec 3.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
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