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Updated: 2012 JUL 21, 15:22 UT
Event Rank : 49
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2012 Sep 08 UT, the 59 km diameter asteroid (3614) Tumilty will occult a 7.8 mag star in the constellation Auriga for observers along a path across Australia from Ingham across northern Queensland southern Northern Territory and south-western Western Australia to Esperance. In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 8.8 mag to 16.6 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 3.8 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: .
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
110 25 14 -46 0 0 19 54 13 1 32 -31 111 6 50 109 43 53 112 57 57 ... .. ..
111 21 24 -45 0 0 19 54 13 2 32 -31 112 2 36 110 40 27 113 52 40 ... .. ..
112 18 5 -44 0 0 19 54 14 3 31 -31 112 58 56 111 37 30 114 48 6 ... .. ..
113 15 21 -43 0 0 19 54 15 5 30 -30 113 55 53 112 35 5 115 44 17 ... .. ..
114 13 16 -42 0 0 19 54 16 6 30 -30 114 53 33 113 33 16 116 41 17 ... .. ..
115 11 54 -41 0 0 19 54 18 7 29 -30 115 51 58 114 32 7 117 39 10 ... .. ..
116 11 18 -40 0 0 19 54 19 8 28 -30 116 51 12 115 31 42 118 38 0 113 48 29
117 11 33 -39 0 0 19 54 21 9 28 -29 117 51 19 116 32 6 119 37 50 114 49 17
118 12 44 -38 0 0 19 54 24 11 27 -29 118 52 25 117 33 22 120 38 47 115 50 50
119 14 55 -37 0 0 19 54 27 12 26 -28 119 54 34 118 35 35 121 40 55 116 53 14
120 18 11 -36 0 0 19 54 30 13 25 -28 120 57 51 119 38 51 122 44 19 117 56 33
121 22 39 -35 0 0 19 54 33 15 25 -27 122 2 23 120 43 16 123 49 7 119 0 53
122 28 24 -34 0 0 19 54 37 16 24 -26 123 8 15 121 48 54 124 55 24 120 6 19
123 35 33 -33 0 0 19 54 41 17 23 -26 124 15 36 122 55 53 126 3 20 121 12 57
124 44 14 -32 0 0 19 54 46 18 22 -25 125 24 31 124 4 21 127 13 1 122 20 55
125 54 35 -31 0 0 19 54 51 20 22 -24 126 35 11 125 14 24 128 24 39 123 30 19
127 6 45 -30 0 0 19 54 57 21 21 -23 127 47 45 126 26 13 129 38 24 124 41 18
128 20 56 -29 0 0 19 55 3 22 20 -22 129 2 24 127 39 57 130 54 29 125 54 0
129 37 19 -28 0 0 19 55 9 24 19 -21 130 19 22 128 55 49 132 13 9 127 8 37
130 56 9 -27 0 0 19 55 16 25 18 -20 131 38 52 130 14 0 133 34 41 128 25 20
132 17 41 -26 0 0 19 55 24 26 17 -19 133 1 12 131 34 48 134 59 25 129 44 22
133 42 15 -25 0 0 19 55 32 28 16 -17 134 26 43 132 58 28 136 27 47 131 5 59
135 10 13 -24 0 0 19 55 41 29 15 -16 135 55 48 134 25 24 138 0 15 132 30 28
136 42 3 -23 0 0 19 55 50 30 13 -15 137 28 58 135 55 59 139 37 27 133 58 11
138 18 17 -22 0 0 19 56 1 32 12 -13 139 6 48 137 30 46 141 20 10 135 29 32
139 59 39 -21 0 0 19 56 12 33 10 -12 140 50 5 139 10 22 143 9 25 137 5 4
141 47 2 -20 0 0 19 56 24 34 9 -10 142 39 49 140 55 35 145 6 32 138 45 23
143 41 36 -19 0 0 19 56 37 35 7 -8 144 37 19 142 47 29 147 13 26 140 31 18
145 44 58 -18 0 0 19 56 52 37 5 -6 146 44 26 144 47 30 149 32 55 142 23 53
Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude
146 0 0 -17 53 1 19 56 53 37 5 -6 -18 20 24 -17 25 55 -19 34 5 -16 15 37
147 0 0 -17 25 50 19 57 1 37 4 -5 -17 53 0 -16 58 56 -19 6 7 -15 49 9
148 0 0 -16 59 46 19 57 8 38 3 -4 -17 26 44 -16 33 3 -18 39 17 -15 23 46
149 0 0 -16 34 48 19 57 15 38 1 -2 -17 1 35 -16 8 17 -18 13 36 -14 59 27
150 0 0 -16 10 57 19 57 22 39 0 -1 -16 37 33 -15 44 36 -17 49 4 -14 36 13
151 0 0 -15 48 12 19 57 30 39 359 0 -16 14 37 -15 22 1 -17 25 40 -14 14 2
Uncertainty in time = +/- 8 secs
Prediction of 2012 Jul 21.0
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