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ASTROMETRIC UPDATE:
OCCULTATION BY (2709) SAGAN - 2012 Aug 23

[Detailed Finder Charts]


Updated:   2012 JUL 07, 23:44 UT

Event Rank : 31

(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).


THE UPDATED PATH

Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.

Sagan Update Map


On 2012 Aug 23 UT, the 20 km diameter asteroid (2709) Sagan will occult a 7.3 mag star in the constellation Aquarius for observers along a somewhat uncertain path beginning near Coffs Harbour in NSW and moving west passing near Armidale and Tamworth.

In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 8.7 mag to 16.0 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 2.5 seconds.

This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: .

Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/

EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY : Data for the target star : Data for the minor planet : The Occultation Path :
                   Centre              Star  Star   Sun      Path Limits           Error Limits
  E. Longitude   Latitude      U.T.    Alt    Az   Alt    Limit 1    Limit 2    Limit 3    Limit 4
      o  '  "     o  '  "    h  m  s     o     o     o    o  '  "    o  '  "    o  '  "    o  '  "
                                                         Latitude   Latitude   Latitude   Latitude
    119  0  0   -30  2 43    9 40 57    20    94     0  -29 57 12  -30  8 14  -29 33 31  -30 31 57
    120  0  0   -30  9 10    9 40 53    21    94    -1  -30  3 40  -30 14 41  -29 40  0  -30 38 23
    121  0  0   -30 15 17    9 40 49    22    93    -2  -30  9 47  -30 20 47  -29 46  8  -30 44 28
    122  0  0   -30 21  3    9 40 44    23    93    -3  -30 15 33  -30 26 33  -29 51 55  -30 50 13
    123  0  0   -30 26 29    9 40 39    24    92    -4  -30 20 59  -30 31 59  -29 57 22  -30 55 38

    124  0  0   -30 31 34    9 40 35    24    92    -4  -30 26  5  -30 37  4  -30  2 28  -31  0 42
    125  0  0   -30 36 19    9 40 30    25    91    -5  -30 30 50  -30 41 49  -30  7 14  -31  5 26
    126  0  0   -30 40 44    9 40 24    26    91    -6  -30 35 15  -30 46 13  -30 11 40  -31  9 50
    127  0  0   -30 44 48    9 40 19    27    90    -7  -30 39 19  -30 50 18  -30 15 45  -31 13 54
    128  0  0   -30 48 33    9 40 14    28    90    -8  -30 43  4  -30 54  2  -30 19 30  -31 17 37

    129  0  0   -30 51 57    9 40  8    29    89    -9  -30 46 28  -30 57 25  -30 22 55  -31 21  1
    130  0  0   -30 55  0    9 40  3    30    88    -9  -30 49 32  -31  0 29  -30 25 59  -31 24  4
    131  0  0   -30 57 44    9 39 57    30    88   -10  -30 52 15  -31  3 13  -30 28 43  -31 26 47
    132  0  0   -31  0  8    9 39 51    31    87   -11  -30 54 39  -31  5 36  -30 31  7  -31 29 10
    133  0  0   -31  2 11    9 39 45    32    87   -12  -30 56 43  -31  7 40  -30 33 11  -31 31 13

    134  0  0   -31  3 55    9 39 39    33    86   -13  -30 58 26  -31  9 23  -30 34 55  -31 32 57
    135  0  0   -31  5 18    9 39 32    34    86   -14  -30 59 50  -31 10 47  -30 36 19  -31 34 20
    136  0  0   -31  6 22    9 39 26    35    85   -14  -31  0 54  -31 11 51  -30 37 23  -31 35 24
    137  0  0   -31  7  6    9 39 19    35    85   -15  -31  1 38  -31 12 34  -30 38  7  -31 36  7
    138  0  0   -31  7 30    9 39 12    36    84   -16  -31  2  2  -31 12 58  -30 38 31  -31 36 31

    139  0  0   -31  7 34    9 39  6    37    84   -17  -31  2  6  -31 13  2  -30 38 35  -31 36 35
    140  0  0   -31  7 18    9 38 58    38    83   -18  -31  1 50  -31 12 47  -30 38 19  -31 36 20
    141  0  0   -31  6 43    9 38 51    39    82   -19  -31  1 15  -31 12 11  -30 37 43  -31 35 45
    142  0  0   -31  5 48    9 38 44    39    82   -19  -31  0 19  -31 11 16  -30 36 48  -31 34 50
    143  0  0   -31  4 33    9 38 37    40    81   -20  -30 59  4  -31 10  1  -30 35 33  -31 33 35

    144  0  0   -31  2 58    9 38 29    41    81   -21  -30 57 30  -31  8 27  -30 33 58  -31 32  1
    145  0  0   -31  1  4    9 38 22    42    80   -22  -30 55 36  -31  6 33  -30 32  3  -31 30  7
    146  0  0   -30 58 50    9 38 14    43    79   -23  -30 53 22  -31  4 19  -30 29 49  -31 27 54
    147  0  0   -30 56 17    9 38  6    44    79   -24  -30 50 48  -31  1 46  -30 27 15  -31 25 21
    148  0  0   -30 53 24    9 37 58    44    78   -24  -30 47 55  -30 58 53  -30 24 21  -31 22 29

    149  0  0   -30 50 12    9 37 50    45    78   -25  -30 44 43  -30 55 41  -30 21  8  -31 19 17
    150  0  0   -30 46 40    9 37 42    46    77   -26  -30 41 11  -30 52  9  -30 17 36  -31 15 46
    151  0  0   -30 42 49    9 37 33    47    76   -27  -30 37 19  -30 48 18  -30 13 43  -31 11 56
    152  0  0   -30 38 38    9 37 25    48    76   -28  -30 33  8  -30 44  7  -30  9 32  -31  7 46
    153  0  0   -30 34  8    9 37 16    49    75   -29  -30 28 38  -30 39 37  -30  5  0  -31  3 17

    154  0  0   -30 29 18    9 37  7    49    74   -29  -30 23 48  -30 34 48  -30  0 10  -30 58 28
    155  0  0   -30 24  9    9 36 58    50    74   -30  -30 18 39  -30 29 39  -29 55  0  -30 53 20
    156  0  0   -30 18 41    9 36 50    51    73   -31  -30 13 10  -30 24 11  -29 49 30  -30 47 53
    157  0  0   -30 12 53    9 36 40    52    72   -32  -30  7 23  -30 18 24  -29 43 42  -30 42  7
    158  0  0   -30  6 46    9 36 31    53    72   -33  -30  1 15  -30 12 17  -29 37 33  -30 36  1

Uncertainty in time = +/- 9 secs

Prediction of 2012 Jul  8.0

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