|
|
Updated: 2012 Jun 06, 02:36 UT
Event Rank : 11
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2012 Jul 12 UT, the 35 km diameter asteroid (3273) Drukar will occult a 8.1 mag star in the constellation Aquarius for observers along a large uncertainty path across eastern Australia, running from Cape York Peninsula, across western Queensland, western New South Wales and western Victoria, passing near Cairns, Adelaide, Melbourne and Hobart.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 8.9 mag to 17.0 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 6.9 seconds.
This update is based on historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of HIP 116217 by 3273 Drukar on 2012 Jul 12
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
142 59 44 -11 0 0 18 2 52 76 143 -39 143 9 23 -10 59 16 142 50 4 -11 0 43 145 3 56 -10 49 48 140 54 46 -11 8 31
143 0 39 -12 27 11 18 3 23 78 140 -39 143 10 21 -12 26 27 142 50 57 -12 27 55 145 5 29 -12 16 54 140 55 2 -12 35 46
143 1 21 -13 53 59 18 3 55 79 136 -40 143 11 6 -13 53 15 142 51 35 -13 54 43 145 6 54 -13 43 38 140 55 0 -14 2 39
143 1 50 -15 20 28 18 4 26 80 131 -40 143 11 39 -15 19 43 142 52 0 -15 21 12 145 8 11 -15 10 2 140 54 41 -15 29 12
143 2 8 -16 46 41 18 4 58 81 124 -40 143 12 1 -16 45 56 142 52 14 -16 47 26 145 9 22 -16 36 10 140 54 4 -16 55 30
143 2 15 -18 12 42 18 5 30 82 117 -40 143 12 13 -18 11 56 142 52 16 -18 13 27 145 10 28 -18 2 5 140 53 11 -18 21 35
143 2 12 -19 38 33 18 6 1 82 107 -40 143 12 15 -19 37 47 142 52 8 -19 39 18 145 11 30 -19 27 51 140 52 2 -19 47 31
143 1 59 -21 4 18 18 6 33 83 97 -41 143 12 8 -21 3 32 142 51 50 -21 5 4 145 12 29 -20 53 30 140 50 37 -21 13 22
143 1 38 -22 30 0 18 7 4 83 85 -41 143 11 53 -22 29 14 142 51 23 -22 30 47 145 13 25 -22 19 6 140 48 58 -22 39 9
143 1 10 -23 55 43 18 7 36 83 74 -41 143 11 31 -23 54 56 142 50 48 -23 56 30 145 14 19 -23 44 43 140 47 4 -24 4 58
143 0 33 -25 21 30 18 8 8 82 63 -41 143 11 1 -25 20 42 142 50 4 -25 22 17 145 15 13 -25 10 22 140 44 56 -25 30 50
142 59 50 -26 47 23 18 8 39 81 54 -41 143 10 26 -26 46 34 142 49 14 -26 48 11 145 16 8 -26 36 8 140 42 33 -26 56 49
142 59 0 -28 13 26 18 9 11 81 46 -41 143 9 45 -28 12 37 142 48 16 -28 14 14 145 17 4 -28 2 4 140 39 55 -28 22 58
142 58 5 -29 39 42 18 9 42 80 40 -41 143 8 58 -29 38 53 142 47 11 -29 40 31 145 18 3 -29 28 12 140 37 3 -29 49 21
142 57 4 -31 6 16 18 10 14 79 35 -41 143 8 7 -31 5 26 142 46 1 -31 7 5 145 19 5 -30 54 37 140 33 57 -31 16 0
142 55 58 -32 33 9 18 10 46 77 31 -41 143 7 11 -32 32 18 142 44 44 -32 33 59 145 20 12 -32 21 21 140 30 35 -32 43 1
142 54 48 -34 0 26 18 11 17 76 27 -41 143 6 12 -33 59 35 142 43 23 -34 1 17 145 21 25 -33 48 28 140 26 58 -34 10 25
142 53 33 -35 28 11 18 11 49 75 24 -41 143 5 9 -35 27 19 142 41 56 -35 29 3 145 22 45 -35 16 3 140 23 4 -35 38 18
142 52 14 -36 56 28 18 12 20 74 22 -41 143 4 4 -36 55 35 142 40 24 -36 57 20 145 24 14 -36 44 8 140 18 54 -37 6 42
142 50 53 -38 25 20 18 12 52 72 20 -41 143 2 57 -38 24 26 142 38 48 -38 26 13 145 25 54 -38 12 49 140 14 27 -38 35 42
142 49 28 -39 54 52 18 13 24 71 18 -40 143 1 47 -39 53 57 142 37 8 -39 55 46 145 27 46 -39 42 9 140 9 40 -40 5 23
142 48 1 -41 25 9 18 13 55 70 16 -40 143 0 37 -41 24 13 142 35 24 -41 26 3 145 29 53 -41 12 12 140 4 33 -41 35 50
142 46 31 -42 56 16 18 14 27 68 15 -40 142 59 25 -42 55 19 142 33 36 -42 57 11 145 32 16 -42 43 5 139 59 3 -43 7 6
142 44 59 -44 28 17 18 14 58 67 14 -40 142 58 14 -44 27 20 142 31 44 -44 29 14 145 34 59 -44 14 51 139 53 10 -44 39 18
Uncertainty in time = +/- 44 secs
Prediction of 2012 Jun 6.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
[Top of Page][Return to Home Page]