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ASTROMETRIC UPDATE:
OCCULTATION BY (404) ARSINOE - 2012 May 04

[Detailed Finder Charts]


Updated:   2012 MAR 10, 01:05 UT

Event Rank : 89

(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).


THE UPDATED PATH

Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.

Arsinoe Update Map


On 2012 May 04 UT, the 117 km diameter asteroid (404) Arsinoe will occult a 13.0 mag star in the constellation Sagittarius for observers along a path beginning near Darwin. The path then moves south-east into Queensland passing near Brisbane and Byron Bay. Then in New Zealand the path is centred from Greymouth to Christchurch.

In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 0.7 mag to 12.9 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 16.1 seconds.

This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Hugh Harris, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.

Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/

EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY : Data for the target star : Data for the minor planet : The Occultation Path :
                   Centre              Star  Star   Sun      Path Limits           Error Limits
  E. Longitude   Latitude      U.T.    Alt    Az   Alt    Limit 1    Limit 2    Limit 3    Limit 4
      o  '  "     o  '  "    h  m  s     o     o     o    o  '  "    o  '  "    o  '  "    o  '  "
                                                         Latitude   Latitude   Latitude   Latitude
    121  0  0   - 8 11 13   14 46 22     6   109   -72  - 8 54 14  - 7 28 36  - 9 42  5  - 6 42 12
    122  0  0   - 8 37 28   14 46 24     7   109   -73  - 9 20 43  - 7 54 38  -10  8 49  - 7  7 59
    123  0  0   - 9  4 30   14 46 27     8   109   -74  - 9 48  0  - 8 21 26  -10 36 22  - 7 34 33
    124  0  0   - 9 32 19   14 46 30     9   108   -75  -10 16  4  - 8 49  1  -11  4 43  - 8  1 52
    125  0  0   -10  0 56   14 46 33    10   108   -76  -10 44 55  - 9 17 23  -11 33 52  - 8 29 59

    126  0  0   -10 30 19   14 46 37    12   108   -77  -11 14 34  - 9 46 31  -12  3 48  - 8 58 51
    127  0  0   -11  0 30   14 46 42    13   108   -78  -11 45  1  -10 16 26  -12 34 33  - 9 28 29
    128  0  0   -11 31 27   14 46 46    14   108   -80  -12 16 14  -10 47  8  -13  6  5  - 9 58 54
    129  0  0   -12  3 11   14 46 52    15   107   -81  -12 48 15  -11 18 36  -13 38 25  -10 30  5
    130  0  0   -12 35 42   14 46 57    16   107   -82  -13 21  3  -11 50 50  -14 11 32  -11  2  2

    131  0  0   -13  8 59   14 47  3    17   107   -83  -13 54 37  -12 23 51  -14 45 26  -11 34 44
    132  0  0   -13 43  2   14 47 10    18   106   -84  -14 28 58  -12 57 37  -15 20  7  -12  8 12
    133  0  0   -14 17 51   14 47 17    19   106   -85  -15  4  5  -13 32  8  -15 55 34  -12 42 25
    134  0  0   -14 53 25   14 47 24    20   106   -86  -15 39 57  -14  7 24  -16 31 47  -13 17 23
    135  0  0   -15 29 44   14 47 32    22   105   -87  -16 16 34  -14 43 25  -17  8 45  -13 53  4

    136  0  0   -16  6 47   14 47 40    23   105   -88  -16 53 56  -15 20 10  -17 46 28  -14 29 30
    137  0  0   -16 44 33   14 47 49    24   104   -89  -17 32  2  -15 57 38  -18 24 56  -15  6 38
    138  0  0   -17 23  2   14 47 58    25   104   -88  -18 10 50  -16 35 49  -19  4  6  -15 44 29
    139  0  0   -18  2 14   14 48  7    26   103   -87  -18 50 21  -17 14 41  -19 43 59  -16 23  2
    140  0  0   -18 42  6   14 48 17    27   103   -86  -19 30 32  -17 54 15  -20 24 33  -17  2 15

    141  0  0   -19 22 38   14 48 28    28   102   -85  -20 11 24  -18 34 28  -21  5 47  -17 42  8
    142  0  0   -20  3 49   14 48 39    29   102   -84  -20 52 55  -19 15 20  -21 47 41  -18 22 40
    143  0  0   -20 45 39   14 48 50    30   101   -83  -21 35  4  -19 56 50  -22 30 12  -19  3 50
    144  0  0   -21 28  4   14 49  1    32   100   -81  -22 17 49  -20 38 57  -23 13 20  -19 45 36
    145  0  0   -22 11  5   14 49 13    33   100   -80  -23  1 10  -21 21 38  -23 57  3  -20 27 57

    146  0  0   -22 54 39   14 49 26    34    99   -79  -23 45  3  -22  4 53  -24 41 19  -21 10 52
    147  0  0   -23 38 45   14 49 39    35    98   -78  -24 29 29  -22 48 40  -25 26  7  -21 54 19
    148  0  0   -24 23 21   14 49 52    36    97   -77  -25 14 25  -23 32 58  -26 11 24  -22 38 17
    149  0  0   -25  8 25   14 50  5    37    96   -75  -25 59 48  -24 17 44  -26 57 10  -23 22 44
    150  0  0   -25 53 56   14 50 19    38    95   -74  -26 45 38  -25  2 57  -27 43 21  -24  7 37

    151  0  0   -26 39 52   14 50 33    39    94   -73  -27 31 52  -25 48 34  -28 29 56  -24 52 56
    152  0  0   -27 26  9   14 50 48    40    93   -72  -28 18 27  -26 34 34  -29 16 52  -25 38 37
    153  0  0   -28 12 46   14 51  2    41    92   -71  -29  5 22  -27 20 55  -30  4  7  -26 24 40
    154  0  0   -28 59 41   14 51 17    42    91   -69  -29 52 34  -28  7 33  -30 51 38  -27 11  1
    155  0  0   -29 46 51   14 51 33    43    90   -68  -30 40  1  -28 54 27  -31 39 24  -27 57 38

    156  0  0   -30 34 14   14 51 48    44    89   -67  -31 27 39  -29 41 35  -32 27 21  -28 44 29
    157  0  0   -31 21 47   14 52  4    45    87   -66  -32 15 27  -30 28 53  -33 15 26  -29 31 32
    158  0  0   -32  9 27   14 52 20    45    86   -65  -33  3 22  -31 16 19  -34  3 37  -30 18 43
    159  0  0   -32 57 12   14 52 36    46    84   -63  -33 51 20  -32  3 51  -34 51 51  -31  6  1
    160  0  0   -33 44 59   14 52 52    47    83   -62  -34 39 20  -32 51 26  -35 40  5  -31 53 23

    161  0  0   -34 32 46   14 53  9    48    81   -61  -35 27 18  -33 39  1  -36 28 17  -32 40 46
    162  0  0   -35 20 29   14 53 25    49    80   -60  -36 15 12  -34 26 34  -37 16 23  -33 28  7
    163  0  0   -36  8  5   14 53 42    49    78   -59  -37  2 59  -35 14  1  -38  4 21  -34 15 24
    164  0  0   -36 55 33   14 53 58    50    76   -58  -37 50 35  -36  1 20  -38 52  7  -35  2 34
    165  0  0   -37 42 49   14 54 15    50    74   -56  -38 37 58  -36 48 28  -39 39 39  -35 49 35

    166  0  0   -38 29 50   14 54 32    51    72   -55  -39 25  6  -37 35 23  -40 26 54  -36 36 23
    167  0  0   -39 16 34   14 54 48    52    71   -54  -40 11 56  -38 22  2  -41 13 50  -37 22 57
    168  0  0   -40  2 59   14 55  5    52    69   -53  -40 58 25  -39  8 23  -42  0 24  -38  9 13
    169  0  0   -40 49  2   14 55 22    53    67   -52  -41 44 30  -39 54 22  -42 46 33  -38 55  9
    170  0  0   -41 34 39   14 55 38    53    65   -51  -42 30 10  -40 39 58  -43 32 14  -39 40 43

    171  0  0   -42 19 50   14 55 54    53    62   -50  -43 15 22  -41 25  9  -44 17 27  -40 25 52
    172  0  0   -43  4 32   14 56 11    54    60   -49  -44  0  3  -42  9 51  -45  2  7  -41 10 35
    173  0  0   -43 48 43   14 56 27    54    58   -48  -44 44 12  -42 54  3  -45 46 14  -41 54 49
    174  0  0   -44 32 20   14 56 43    54    56   -47  -45 27 46  -43 37 43  -46 29 45  -42 38 32
    175  0  0   -45 15 23   14 56 59    54    54   -46  -46 10 44  -44 20 50  -47 12 38  -43 21 43

    176  0  0   -45 57 48   14 57 14    55    52   -45  -46 53  5  -45  3 21  -47 54 53  -44  4 19
    177  0  0   -46 39 36   14 57 30    55    49   -44  -47 34 46  -45 45 14  -48 36 26  -44 46 18
    178  0  0   -47 20 44   14 57 45    55    47   -43  -48 15 46  -46 26 29  -49 17 18  -45 27 41
    179  0  0   -48  1 10   14 58  0    55    45   -42  -48 56  5  -47  7  4  -49 57 26  -46  8 24
    180  0  0   -48 40 55   14 58 15    55    43   -41  -49 35 40  -47 46 57  -50 36 51  -46 48 27

Uncertainty in time = +/- 9 secs

Prediction of 2012 Jan 10.0

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