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Updated: 2011 Sep 23, 21:41 UT
Event Rank : 98
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2011 Oct 06 UT, the 32 km diameter asteroid (1036) Ganymed will occult a 9.4 mag star in the constellation Andromeda for observers along a path across central Western Australia, running from Derby to Point Culver.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by only 0.5 mag to 8.9 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 2.4 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, TMO astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 2823-01243-1 by 1036 Ganymed on 2011 Oct 6
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
124 55 31 -37 0 0 16 24 19 11 1 -46 124 44 31 125 6 31 124 36 35 125 14 26
124 54 9 -36 0 0 16 24 17 12 1 -47 124 43 17 125 5 0 124 35 27 125 12 49
124 52 34 -35 0 0 16 24 15 13 1 -48 124 41 50 125 3 17 124 34 6 125 11 0
124 50 46 -34 0 0 16 24 14 14 1 -49 124 40 10 125 1 22 124 32 31 125 9 0
124 48 47 -33 0 0 16 24 11 15 1 -50 124 38 18 124 59 16 124 30 45 125 6 48
124 46 36 -32 0 0 16 24 9 16 1 -51 124 36 14 124 56 58 124 28 46 125 4 26
124 44 14 -31 0 0 16 24 7 17 1 -52 124 33 59 124 54 30 124 26 35 125 1 53
124 41 42 -30 0 0 16 24 4 18 1 -53 124 31 32 124 51 51 124 24 13 124 59 9
124 38 59 -29 0 0 16 24 2 19 1 -54 124 28 55 124 49 2 124 21 40 124 56 16
124 36 5 -28 0 0 16 23 59 20 2 -54 124 26 7 124 46 3 124 18 56 124 53 13
124 33 2 -27 0 0 16 23 56 21 2 -55 124 23 9 124 42 54 124 16 2 124 50 0
124 29 48 -26 0 0 16 23 53 22 2 -56 124 20 0 124 39 35 124 12 57 124 46 38
124 26 25 -25 0 0 16 23 50 23 2 -57 124 16 42 124 36 7 124 9 42 124 43 7
124 22 52 -24 0 0 16 23 46 24 2 -58 124 13 13 124 32 30 124 6 17 124 39 26
124 19 9 -23 0 0 16 23 43 25 2 -59 124 9 35 124 28 43 124 2 41 124 35 36
124 15 17 -22 0 0 16 23 39 25 2 -60 124 5 47 124 24 47 123 58 56 124 31 37
124 11 15 -21 0 0 16 23 36 26 2 -61 124 1 49 124 20 41 123 55 1 124 27 29
124 7 4 -20 0 0 16 23 32 27 2 -62 123 57 42 124 16 27 123 50 56 124 23 12
124 2 44 -19 0 0 16 23 28 28 2 -63 123 53 25 124 12 3 123 46 42 124 18 46
123 58 14 -18 0 0 16 23 24 29 2 -64 123 48 58 124 7 30 123 42 17 124 14 11
123 53 35 -17 0 0 16 23 19 30 2 -65 123 44 22 124 2 48 123 37 43 124 9 26
123 48 46 -16 0 0 16 23 15 31 3 -66 123 39 36 123 57 57 123 32 59 124 4 33
123 43 48 -15 0 0 16 23 10 32 3 -66 123 34 40 123 52 56 123 28 5 123 59 30
123 38 40 -14 0 0 16 23 6 33 3 -67 123 29 34 123 47 46 123 23 1 123 54 18
123 33 22 -13 0 0 16 23 1 34 3 -68 123 24 18 123 42 26 123 17 47 123 48 57
123 27 54 -12 0 0 16 22 56 35 3 -69 123 18 52 123 36 56 123 12 22 123 43 26
123 22 17 -11 0 0 16 22 51 36 3 -70 123 13 16 123 31 17 123 6 47 123 37 45
123 16 29 -10 0 0 16 22 46 37 3 -71 123 7 30 123 25 27 123 1 2 123 31 55
Uncertainty in time = +/- 1 secs
Prediction of 2011 Sep 24.0
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