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Updated: 2011 JUL 02, 02:01 UT
Event Rank : 21
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2011 Aug 30 UT, the 42 km diameter asteroid (3036) Krat will occult a 11.2 mag star in the constellation Telescopium for observers along a south-to-north path across WA from Eucla to Fitzroy Crossing.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 3.6 mag to 14.8 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 4.2 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
129 51 9 -41 1 11 10 26 10 65 128 -18 129 35 16 -41 0 57 130 7 1 -41 1 22 127 53 12 -40 58 18 131 48 6 -41 1 27
129 38 52 -39 35 55 10 26 25 64 130 -18 129 23 18 -39 35 39 129 54 25 -39 36 7 127 43 16 -39 32 50 131 33 29 -39 36 23
129 25 57 -38 9 57 10 26 40 63 132 -18 129 10 40 -38 9 40 129 41 12 -38 10 12 127 32 32 -38 6 40 131 18 23 -38 10 40
129 12 23 -36 43 15 10 26 55 62 134 -18 128 57 23 -36 42 55 129 27 21 -36 43 32 127 21 1 -36 39 44 131 2 47 -36 44 13
128 58 9 -35 15 42 10 27 10 61 136 -18 128 43 25 -35 15 21 129 12 53 -35 16 1 127 8 42 -35 11 55 130 46 40 -35 16 57
128 43 17 -33 47 14 10 27 25 60 138 -18 128 28 47 -33 46 50 128 57 46 -33 47 36 126 55 35 -33 43 10 130 30 1 -33 48 46
128 27 44 -32 17 45 10 27 40 59 139 -18 128 13 27 -32 17 19 128 41 59 -32 18 9 126 41 40 -32 13 22 130 12 49 -32 19 36
128 11 28 -30 47 9 10 27 55 58 141 -17 127 57 24 -30 46 39 128 25 31 -30 47 35 126 26 57 -30 42 25 129 55 2 -30 49 20
127 54 29 -29 15 18 10 28 10 56 142 -17 127 40 36 -29 14 45 128 8 21 -29 15 47 126 11 22 -29 10 12 129 36 38 -29 17 52
127 36 44 -27 42 5 10 28 25 55 143 -17 127 23 2 -27 41 30 127 50 25 -27 42 38 125 54 54 -27 36 34 129 17 35 -27 45 3
127 18 10 -26 7 22 10 28 40 54 145 -17 127 4 37 -26 6 43 127 31 41 -26 7 59 125 37 31 -26 1 24 128 57 49 -26 10 47
126 58 44 -24 31 0 10 28 55 52 146 -16 126 45 20 -24 30 16 127 12 6 -24 31 40 125 19 9 -24 24 30 128 37 18 -24 34 53
126 38 22 -22 52 46 10 29 10 51 147 -16 126 25 6 -22 51 58 126 51 36 -22 53 31 124 59 45 -22 45 43 128 15 57 -22 57 11
126 16 59 -21 12 30 10 29 25 49 147 -16 126 3 50 -21 11 37 126 30 7 -21 13 19 124 39 13 -21 4 49 127 53 41 -21 17 29
125 54 30 -19 29 56 10 29 40 48 148 -15 125 41 27 -19 28 58 126 7 31 -19 30 51 124 17 27 -19 21 33 127 30 26 -19 35 34
125 30 47 -17 44 49 10 29 55 46 149 -15 125 17 49 -17 43 44 125 43 43 -17 45 50 123 54 21 -17 35 38 127 6 5 -17 51 10
125 5 42 -15 56 48 10 30 10 44 150 -14 124 52 48 -15 55 37 125 18 35 -15 57 57 123 29 44 -15 46 44 126 40 29 -16 3 59
124 39 5 -14 5 31 10 30 26 42 150 -14 124 26 14 -14 4 12 124 51 55 -14 6 47 123 3 27 -13 54 25 126 13 29 -14 13 37
124 10 44 -12 10 30 10 30 41 41 151 -13 123 57 54 -12 9 1 124 23 32 -12 11 55 122 35 14 -11 58 11 125 44 53 -12 19 39
123 40 20 -10 11 8 10 30 56 39 152 -13 123 27 31 -10 9 29 123 53 8 -10 12 44 122 4 49 - 9 57 26 125 14 26 -10 21 32
123 7 35 - 8 6 44 10 31 11 37 152 -12 122 54 44 - 8 4 52 123 20 24 - 8 8 32 121 31 47 - 7 51 21 124 41 49 - 8 18 35
122 31 59 - 5 56 20 10 31 26 34 153 -11 122 19 4 - 5 54 12 122 44 52 - 5 58 23 120 55 38 - 5 38 56 124 6 37 - 6 9 56
121 52 56 - 3 38 41 10 31 41 32 153 -10 121 39 54 - 3 36 15 122 5 56 - 3 41 3 120 15 39 - 3 18 47 123 28 16 - 3 54 27
121 9 33 - 1 12 5 10 31 56 30 153 -9 120 56 20 - 1 9 14 121 22 42 - 1 14 50 119 30 49 - 0 48 58 122 46 1 - 1 30 34
120 20 30 1 26 0 10 32 11 27 154 -8 120 7 2 1 29 22 120 33 56 1 22 43 118 39 35 1 53 24 121 58 43 1 3 57
Uncertainty in time = +/- 14 secs
Prediction of 2011 Jul 2.0
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