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Updated: 2011 May 18, 02:22 UT
Event Rank : 95
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2011 Jul 01 UT, the 99 km diameter asteroid (914) Palisana will occult a 11.6 mag star in the constellation Hydra for observers along a path across the southern end of the south island of New Zealand.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 1.2 mag to 12.4 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 8.5 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 6730-00336-1 by 914 Palisana on 2011 Jul 1
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
171 52 41 -47 22 42 13 35 0 22 259 -63 170 13 40 -47 40 12 173 35 53 -47 3 2 168 51 25 -47 53 43 175 8 34 -46 44 7
171 10 49 -46 50 12 13 35 6 22 260 -64 169 33 50 -47 7 0 172 51 47 -46 31 21 168 13 14 -47 19 59 174 22 21 -46 13 15
170 31 35 -46 17 15 13 35 12 22 260 -64 168 56 31 -46 33 24 172 10 28 -45 59 9 167 37 27 -46 45 54 173 39 5 -45 41 45
169 54 50 -45 43 54 13 35 18 23 260 -65 168 21 33 -45 59 28 171 31 47 -45 26 27 167 3 56 -46 11 31 172 58 35 -45 9 43
169 20 26 -45 10 10 13 35 24 23 260 -66 167 48 50 -45 25 12 170 55 35 -44 53 19 166 32 33 -45 36 50 172 20 41 -44 37 11
168 48 14 -44 36 5 13 35 30 23 260 -66 167 18 13 -44 50 38 170 21 43 -44 19 48 166 3 13 -45 1 54 171 45 15 -44 4 12
168 18 9 -44 1 42 13 35 36 23 260 -67 166 49 36 -44 15 48 169 50 3 -43 45 54 165 35 48 -44 26 44 171 12 8 -43 30 47
167 50 4 -43 27 0 13 35 42 24 260 -68 166 22 53 -43 40 43 169 20 29 -43 11 40 165 10 12 -43 51 20 170 41 13 -42 57 0
167 23 52 -42 52 3 13 35 48 24 260 -68 165 57 59 -43 5 23 168 52 55 -42 37 8 164 46 22 -43 15 43 170 12 23 -42 22 51
166 59 29 -42 16 50 13 35 54 24 260 -69 165 34 48 -42 29 51 168 27 15 -42 2 17 164 24 11 -42 39 55 169 45 32 -41 48 23
166 36 49 -41 41 23 13 36 0 24 260 -70 165 13 17 -41 54 6 168 3 23 -41 27 11 164 3 35 -42 3 56 169 20 34 -41 13 36
166 15 49 -41 5 43 13 36 6 24 260 -70 164 53 20 -41 18 9 167 41 15 -40 51 49 163 44 31 -41 27 47 168 57 25 -40 38 31
Uncertainty in time = +/- 4 secs
Prediction of 2011 May 18.0
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