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Updated: 2011 JUN 07, 23:29 UT
Event Rank : 84
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2011 Jun 26 UT, the 32 km diameter asteroid (1036) Ganymed will occult a 10.6 mag star in the constellation Cygnus for observers along a narrow path across Australia from Mossamn across northern to south-western Queensland and eastern South Australia to just east of Adelaide, and across Papua - New Guinea near Ioma.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 1.0 mag to 11.1 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 1.9 seconds.
This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
134 1 49 -46 0 0 16 3 3 0 20 -65 134 15 8 133 48 31 134 31 21 133 32 15
134 33 17 -45 0 0 16 3 3 1 20 -65 134 46 20 134 20 13 135 2 14 134 4 17
135 3 47 -44 0 0 16 3 3 2 20 -66 135 16 36 134 50 58 135 32 13 134 35 19
135 33 25 -43 0 0 16 3 4 3 19 -66 135 46 0 135 20 49 136 1 20 135 5 27
136 2 13 -42 0 0 16 3 4 4 19 -67 136 14 35 135 49 51 136 29 40 135 34 44
136 30 16 -41 0 0 16 3 5 5 19 -67 136 42 26 136 18 6 136 57 15 136 3 14
136 57 36 -40 0 0 16 3 5 7 18 -68 137 9 34 136 45 37 137 24 10 136 31 0
137 24 16 -39 0 0 16 3 6 8 18 -68 137 36 3 137 12 28 137 50 26 136 58 5
137 50 19 -38 0 0 16 3 7 9 18 -69 138 1 56 137 38 42 138 16 6 137 24 31
138 15 48 -37 0 0 16 3 8 10 18 -69 138 27 15 138 4 21 138 41 13 137 50 22
138 40 45 -36 0 0 16 3 9 11 17 -69 138 52 3 138 29 27 139 5 50 138 15 40
139 5 12 -35 0 0 16 3 11 12 17 -70 139 16 21 138 54 3 139 29 57 138 40 26
139 29 11 -34 0 0 16 3 12 13 17 -70 139 40 11 139 18 10 139 53 37 139 4 43
139 52 43 -33 0 0 16 3 14 14 17 -70 140 3 36 139 41 50 140 16 52 139 28 34
140 15 52 -32 0 0 16 3 16 15 16 -70 140 26 37 140 5 6 140 39 44 139 51 59
140 38 37 -31 0 0 16 3 17 16 16 -70 140 49 15 140 27 59 141 2 13 140 15 1
141 1 2 -30 0 0 16 3 19 17 16 -70 141 11 33 140 50 31 141 24 23 140 37 40
141 23 7 -29 0 0 16 3 22 18 16 -70 141 33 32 141 12 42 141 46 14 141 0 0
141 44 54 -28 0 0 16 3 24 19 16 -70 141 55 13 141 34 35 142 7 47 141 22 0
142 6 24 -27 0 0 16 3 26 20 15 -69 142 16 37 141 56 11 142 29 4 141 43 43
142 27 38 -26 0 0 16 3 29 21 15 -69 142 37 46 142 17 31 142 50 7 142 5 9
142 48 38 -25 0 0 16 3 31 22 15 -69 142 58 41 142 38 36 143 10 55 142 26 21
143 9 25 -24 0 0 16 3 34 23 15 -69 143 19 23 142 59 28 143 31 31 142 47 19
143 30 0 -23 0 0 16 3 37 24 15 -68 143 39 53 143 20 7 143 51 56 143 8 3
143 50 23 -22 0 0 16 3 40 25 15 -68 144 0 12 143 40 35 144 12 10 143 28 37
144 10 37 -21 0 0 16 3 43 26 14 -67 144 20 21 144 0 52 144 32 14 143 48 59
144 30 41 -20 0 0 16 3 46 28 14 -67 144 40 22 144 21 1 144 52 11 144 9 12
144 50 38 -19 0 0 16 3 49 29 14 -66 145 0 15 144 41 1 145 11 59 144 29 16
145 10 27 -18 0 0 16 3 52 30 14 -66 145 20 1 145 0 53 145 31 41 144 49 13
145 30 10 -17 0 0 16 3 56 31 14 -65 145 39 41 145 20 39 145 51 17 145 9 3
145 49 48 -16 0 0 16 4 0 32 14 -64 145 59 15 145 40 20 146 10 48 145 28 47
146 9 21 -15 0 0 16 4 3 33 13 -64 146 18 46 145 59 55 146 30 16 145 48 26
146 28 50 -14 0 0 16 4 7 34 13 -63 146 38 13 146 19 27 146 49 40 146 8 1
146 48 17 -13 0 0 16 4 11 35 13 -62 146 57 37 146 38 56 147 9 1 146 27 32
147 7 41 -12 0 0 16 4 15 36 13 -61 147 17 0 146 58 23 147 28 21 146 47 1
147 27 5 -11 0 0 16 4 19 37 13 -61 147 36 21 147 17 48 147 47 41 147 6 29
147 46 28 -10 0 0 16 4 23 38 13 -60 147 55 43 147 37 12 148 7 0 147 25 55
148 5 51 - 9 0 0 16 4 28 39 13 -59 148 15 5 147 56 37 148 26 20 147 45 22
148 25 15 - 8 0 0 16 4 32 40 12 -58 148 34 28 148 16 3 148 45 42 148 4 49
148 44 42 - 7 0 0 16 4 37 41 12 -58 148 53 54 148 35 31 149 5 7 148 24 18
149 4 11 - 6 0 0 16 4 41 42 12 -57 149 13 22 148 55 1 149 24 34 148 43 49
149 23 44 - 5 0 0 16 4 46 43 12 -56 149 32 54 149 14 34 149 44 6 149 3 23
149 43 22 - 4 0 0 16 4 51 44 12 -55 149 52 31 149 34 12 150 3 42 149 23 2
150 3 4 - 3 0 0 16 4 56 45 12 -54 150 12 14 149 53 55 150 23 24 149 42 45
150 22 53 - 2 0 0 16 5 1 46 11 -53 150 32 2 150 13 44 150 43 13 150 2 34
Uncertainty in time = +/- 1 secs
Prediction of 2011 Jun 8.0
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