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Updated: 2011 Feb 18, 23:06 UT
Event Rank : 8
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2011 Apr 03 UT, the 20 km diameter asteroid (5959) Shaklan will occult a 10.5 mag star in the constellation Serpens for observers along a very narrow, large uncertainty path across Australia, running from Port Augusta to the Gove Peninsula.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 5.5 mag to 12.7 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 2.4 seconds.
This update is based on historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 0361-00999-1 by 5959 Shaklan on 2011 Apr 3
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
134 58 55 -40 0 0 14 55 43 27 58 -55 135 10 30 134 47 17 138 20 44 131 21 56
135 27 31 -39 0 0 14 55 53 28 58 -56 135 38 49 135 16 11 138 44 39 131 56 16
135 53 19 -38 0 0 14 56 3 29 58 -57 136 4 21 135 42 14 139 6 8 132 27 14
136 16 29 -37 0 0 14 56 14 30 58 -58 136 27 17 136 5 38 139 25 21 132 55 7
136 37 12 -36 0 0 14 56 24 30 58 -59 136 47 47 136 26 35 139 42 26 133 20 9
136 55 38 -35 0 0 14 56 35 31 58 -60 137 6 1 136 45 13 139 57 31 133 42 31
137 11 54 -34 0 0 14 56 46 32 59 -61 137 22 7 137 1 40 140 10 43 134 2 24
137 26 9 -33 0 0 14 56 57 33 59 -62 137 36 11 137 16 5 140 22 6 134 19 57
137 38 27 -32 0 0 14 57 8 33 59 -63 137 48 20 137 28 33 140 31 47 134 35 18
137 48 56 -31 0 0 14 57 20 34 60 -64 137 58 40 137 39 10 140 39 50 134 48 34
137 57 40 -30 0 0 14 57 31 35 60 -65 138 7 17 137 48 2 140 46 20 134 59 52
138 4 44 -29 0 0 14 57 43 35 60 -66 138 14 13 137 55 14 140 51 20 135 9 17
138 10 12 -28 0 0 14 57 55 36 61 -67 138 19 35 138 0 49 140 54 54 135 16 54
138 14 8 -27 0 0 14 58 7 36 62 -68 138 23 24 138 4 51 140 57 5 135 22 48
138 16 35 -26 0 0 14 58 19 37 62 -69 138 25 45 138 7 23 140 57 55 135 27 3
138 17 36 -25 0 0 14 58 31 37 63 -70 138 26 41 138 8 29 140 57 28 135 29 42
138 17 13 -24 0 0 14 58 44 38 63 -71 138 26 13 138 8 11 140 55 45 135 30 49
138 15 29 -23 0 0 14 58 56 38 64 -72 138 24 25 138 6 31 140 52 48 135 30 25
138 12 25 -22 0 0 14 59 9 39 65 -73 138 21 18 138 3 31 140 48 39 135 28 34
138 8 4 -21 0 0 14 59 21 39 66 -74 138 16 54 137 59 14 140 43 20 135 25 17
138 2 28 -20 0 0 14 59 34 40 66 -75 138 11 14 137 53 40 140 36 52 135 20 37
137 55 36 -19 0 0 14 59 47 40 67 -76 138 4 20 137 46 51 140 29 15 135 14 34
137 47 31 -18 0 0 15 0 0 40 68 -77 137 56 12 137 38 48 140 20 31 135 7 10
137 38 13 -17 0 0 15 0 14 41 69 -78 137 46 52 137 29 32 140 10 40 134 58 26
137 27 42 -16 0 0 15 0 27 41 70 -79 137 36 20 137 19 3 139 59 43 134 48 23
137 16 0 -15 0 0 15 0 40 41 71 -80 137 24 37 137 7 22 139 47 40 134 37 1
137 3 6 -14 0 0 15 0 54 41 71 -81 137 11 42 136 54 28 139 34 32 134 24 20
136 49 0 -13 0 0 15 1 7 41 72 -82 136 57 36 136 40 23 139 20 18 134 10 21
136 33 43 -12 0 0 15 1 21 41 73 -83 136 42 19 136 25 6 139 4 59 133 55 3
136 17 14 -11 0 0 15 1 34 41 74 -84 136 25 50 136 8 36 138 48 33 133 38 25
135 59 31 -10 0 0 15 1 48 42 75 -85 136 8 8 135 50 53 138 31 1 133 20 28
Uncertainty in time = +/- 22 secs
Prediction of 2011 Feb 4.0
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