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ASTROMETRIC UPDATE:
OCCULTATION BY (58) CONCORDIA - 2011 APR 03

[Edwin Goffin's Prediction + Finder Charts]

[Detailed Finder Charts]


Updated:   2011 Mar 17, 09:19 UT

Event Rank : 97

(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).


THE UPDATED PATH

Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.

Concordia Update Map


On 2011 Apr 03 UT, the 105 km diameter asteroid (58) Concordia will occult a 12.3 mag star in the constellation Virgo for observers along a path across New Zealand, passing over Palmerston North and near Wellington. The path will then run across Australia, beginning over Brisbane and running across Queensland, Northern Territory and northern West Australia to leave near Wyndham.

In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 0.7 mag to 12.7 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 9.7 seconds.

This update is based on UNSO/Flagstaff astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Alice Monet, TMO astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by Bill Owen, historical astrometry from the MPC files (via AstDys), and the following catalogs for the star position: UCAC.

Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/

EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY : Data for the target star : Data for the minor planet : The Occultation Path :
 Occultation of TYC 4961-00152-1 by 58 Concordia on 2011 Apr  3 
                  Centre              Star  Star   Sun      Path Limits           Error Limits
  E. Longitude   Latitude      U.T.    Alt    Az   Alt    Limit 1    Limit 2    Limit 3    Limit 4
      o  '  "     o  '  "    h  m  s     o     o     o    o  '  "    o  '  "    o  '  "    o  '  "
                                                         Latitude   Latitude   Latitude   Latitude
    120  0  0   -13 39 46   11 28  1    15    89   -22  -13  0 49  -14 19  7  -12 31 29  -14 49 19
    121  0  0   -13 53 41   11 27 57    16    89   -23  -13 14 39  -14 33  8  -12 45 14  -15  3 24
    122  0  0   -14  8 16   11 27 54    17    89   -24  -13 29  8  -14 47 49  -12 59 39  -15 18 10
    123  0  0   -14 23 31   11 27 49    18    88   -25  -13 44 17  -15  3 11  -13 14 44  -15 33 37
    124  0  0   -14 39 27   11 27 45    19    88   -26  -14  0  6  -15 19 13  -13 30 28  -15 49 44

    125  0  0   -14 56  1   11 27 41    20    88   -27  -14 16 34  -15 35 54  -13 46 51  -16  6 31
    126  0  0   -15 13 15   11 27 36    21    87   -27  -14 33 41  -15 53 16  -14  3 53  -16 23 58
    127  0  0   -15 31  9   11 27 31    22    87   -28  -14 51 27  -16 11 17  -14 21 33  -16 42  5
    128  0  0   -15 49 41   11 27 26    22    86   -29  -15  9 52  -16 29 57  -14 39 52  -17  0 51
    129  0  0   -16  8 52   11 27 21    23    86   -30  -15 28 55  -16 49 16  -14 58 50  -17 20 17

    130  0  0   -16 28 42   11 27 15    24    86   -31  -15 48 36  -17  9 15  -15 18 25  -17 40 22
    131  0  0   -16 49 10   11 27  9    25    85   -32  -16  8 56  -17 29 52  -15 38 38  -18  1  6
    132  0  0   -17 10 16   11 27  3    26    85   -33  -16 29 53  -17 51  7  -15 59 29  -18 22 28
    133  0  0   -17 32  0   11 26 57    27    84   -34  -16 51 28  -18 13  0  -16 20 57  -18 44 29
    134  0  0   -17 54 22   11 26 51    28    84   -35  -17 13 40  -18 35 31  -16 43  2  -19  7  7

    135  0  0   -18 17 20   11 26 44    29    83   -36  -17 36 29  -18 58 39  -17  5 44  -19 30 24
    136  0  0   -18 40 55   11 26 38    30    82   -36  -17 59 54  -19 22 25  -17 29  2  -19 54 17
    137  0  0   -19  5  7   11 26 31    30    82   -37  -18 23 56  -19 46 47  -17 52 56  -20 18 48
    138  0  0   -19 29 55   11 26 24    31    81   -38  -18 48 33  -20 11 46  -18 17 26  -20 43 55
    139  0  0   -19 55 18   11 26 16    32    81   -39  -19 13 46  -20 37 20  -18 42 31  -21  9 38

    140  0  0   -20 21 17   11 26  9    33    80   -40  -19 39 34  -21  3 30  -19  8 11  -21 35 57
    141  0  0   -20 47 51   11 26  1    34    79   -41  -20  5 56  -21 30 16  -19 34 25  -22  2 51
    142  0  0   -21 14 59   11 25 53    35    78   -41  -20 32 53  -21 57 35  -20  1 13  -22 30 20
    143  0  0   -21 42 40   11 25 45    35    78   -42  -21  0 23  -22 25 29  -20 28 35  -22 58 24
    144  0  0   -22 10 56   11 25 37    36    77   -43  -21 28 26  -22 53 57  -20 56 29  -23 27  1

    145  0  0   -22 39 44   11 25 29    37    76   -44  -21 57  2  -23 22 58  -21 24 56  -23 56 12
    146  0  0   -23  9  4   11 25 20    38    75   -44  -22 26 10  -23 52 31  -21 53 55  -24 25 55
    147  0  0   -23 38 56   11 25 12    38    74   -45  -22 55 50  -24 22 36  -22 23 25  -24 56 11
    148  0  0   -24  9 19   11 25  3    39    73   -46  -23 26  0  -24 53 12  -22 53 26  -25 26 57
    149  0  0   -24 40 13   11 24 54    40    72   -47  -23 56 41  -25 24 19  -23 23 57  -25 58 15

    150  0  0   -25 11 36   11 24 45    40    71   -47  -24 27 51  -25 55 56  -23 54 58  -26 30  3
    151  0  0   -25 43 28   11 24 36    41    70   -48  -24 59 29  -26 28  2  -24 26 27  -27  2 20
    152  0  0   -26 15 48   11 24 27    42    69   -48  -25 31 36  -27  0 37  -24 58 24  -27 35  5
    153  0  0   -26 48 36   11 24 17    42    68   -49  -26  4 11  -27 33 39  -25 30 48  -28  8 19
    154  0  0   -27 21 51   11 24  8    43    66   -49  -26 37 11  -28  7  8  -26  3 39  -28 41 59

    155  0  0   -27 55 31   11 23 58    43    65   -50  -27 10 38  -28 41  2  -26 36 55  -29 16  5
    156  0  0   -28 29 36   11 23 48    44    64   -50  -27 44 29  -29 15 22  -27 10 36  -29 50 37
    157  0  0   -29  4  5   11 23 39    44    63   -51  -28 18 44  -29 50  6  -27 44 41  -30 25 32
    158  0  0   -29 38 57   11 23 29    45    61   -51  -28 53 22  -30 25 13  -28 19  8  -31  0 51
    159  0  0   -30 14 12   11 23 19    45    60   -52  -29 28 22  -31  0 42  -28 53 58  -31 36 32

    160  0  0   -30 49 47   11 23  9    46    58   -52  -30  3 42  -31 36 32  -29 29  8  -32 12 34
    161  0  0   -31 25 42   11 22 59    46    57   -52  -30 39 23  -32 12 42  -30  4 38  -32 48 56
    162  0  0   -32  1 55   11 22 49    46    55   -53  -31 15 23  -32 49 11  -30 40 27  -33 25 37
    163  0  0   -32 38 27   11 22 39    47    54   -53  -31 51 40  -33 25 58  -31 16 34  -34  2 35
    164  0  0   -33 15 15   11 22 28    47    52   -53  -32 28 13  -34  3  1  -31 52 57  -34 39 50

    165  0  0   -33 52 18   11 22 18    47    51   -53  -33  5  2  -34 40 19  -32 29 35  -35 17 21
    166  0  0   -34 29 35   11 22  8    47    49   -53  -33 42  5  -35 17 51  -33  6 28  -35 55  5
    167  0  0   -35  7  6   11 21 58    48    47   -53  -34 19 21  -35 55 36  -33 43 34  -36 33  1
    168  0  0   -35 44 47   11 21 48    48    46   -53  -34 56 49  -36 33 33  -34 20 51  -37 11  9
    169  0  0   -36 22 39   11 21 37    48    44   -53  -35 34 27  -37 11 39  -34 58 19  -37 49 27

    170  0  0   -37  0 39   11 21 27    48    43   -53  -36 12 13  -37 49 54  -35 35 56  -38 27 53
    171  0  0   -37 38 47   11 21 17    48    41   -53  -36 50  8  -38 28 16  -36 13 40  -39  6 27
    172  0  0   -38 17  1   11 21  7    48    39   -53  -37 28  8  -39  6 43  -36 51 31  -39 45  6
    173  0  0   -38 55 19   11 20 57    48    37   -53  -38  6 14  -39 45 15  -37 29 27  -40 23 48
    174  0  0   -39 33 40   11 20 47    48    36   -53  -38 44 22  -40 23 50  -38  7 27  -41  2 34

    175  0  0   -40 12  3   11 20 37    48    34   -52  -39 22 33  -41  2 26  -38 45 29  -41 41 20
    176  0  0   -40 50 27   11 20 27    48    32   -52  -40  0 44  -41 41  2  -39 23 31  -42 20  6
    177  0  0   -41 28 48   11 20 17    47    31   -52  -40 38 55  -42 19 36  -40  1 33  -42 58 50
    178  0  0   -42  7  7   11 20  7    47    29   -52  -41 17  2  -42 58  7  -40 39 33  -43 37 30
    179  0  0   -42 45 22   11 19 58    47    27   -51  -41 55  6  -43 36 33  -41 17 29  -44 16  5

Uncertainty in time = +/- 4 secs

Prediction of 2011 Mar 17.0


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